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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Rekop dog

Can people stop saying eerie. I've seen that adjective about 20 times. It's just your average calm night. Nothing remotely eerie about it.

LaVail

First bit of a breeze developing in North Kerry as I type...Was very calm up to now

ANDREWMUFC

PLL wrote: »

I'm in the city. Not a sign of any wind. Eerie quiet.

That’s something else now. I’m near athenry and it’s strong enough

paconnors

PLL wrote: »

I'm in the city. Not a sign of any wind. Eerie quiet.

I'm in work near Henry st area and down is dead quiet

Kermit.de.frog

LaVail wrote: »

First bit of a breeze developing in North Kerry as I type...Was very calm up to now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xs_OacEq2Sk

drunkmonkey

nagdefy wrote: »

And that's where i described it as being. It's south west of Kerry on it.

It looks very West though, I thought the tracks had it a lot more east.
Lightning has all but disappeared.
Somebody should have reported a bit more than edgy animals at this stage seen as how far north the eye has gone.
It’s been traveling fast, it just looks like it’s shot west.

fryup

yes its gone west

BoatMad

Rekop dog wrote: »

Can people stop saying eerie. I've seen that adjective about 20 times. It's just your average calm night. Nothing remotely eerie about it.

Seriously mate its about as far away from your average calm night as you can get

funnights74

The wind is really picking up on Cork city. The next few hours will tell a lot.

SeaBreezes

Rain and gentle wind in Kinsale

nagdefy

I'm going to hit the hay lads.

I'll leave it to someone else to tell Drunk Monkey and Fry Up that it hasn't gone west and that the event isn't over

I think Drunk Monkey is either living up to the first part of his username or having a bit of fun.

Tobinjl91

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It looks very West though, I thought the tracks had it a lot more east.
Lightning has all but disappeared.
Somebody should have reported a bit more than edgy animals at this stage seen as how far north the eye has gone.
It’s been traveling fast, it just looks like it’s shot west.

What are you talking about? The winds haven't even reached the southern coast yet! even if the centre of the storm passes off the west of the country the entire island will still take a battering. To think that it will just blow by us unnoticed is just ignorant.

Have a look at windy.com to see where the strong winds actually are. As you'll see theyre only just beginning to reach the southern coast

Sardonicat

Raining in Tralee now

__..__

Rekop dog wrote: »

Can people stop saying eerie. I've seen that adjective about 20 times. It's just your average calm night. Nothing remotely eerie about it.

No its definitely eerie here.

monty_python

I'm in allihies in South west cork and the wind is getting strong now.
If it gets worse it will be bad

fryup

its certainly looks like its veered west..have we dodged a bullet?

Kermit.de.frog

__..__ wrote: »

No its definitely eerie here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBlrcUsMhps

long_b

This thread is meant to be for TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057797471/125

There's another thread for chat, glib observations, uninformed conjecture and general arsery.

liam7831

long_b wrote:

This thread is meant to be for TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Who in here knows anything about Hurricane Technical Analysis ðŸ˜†

[Deleted User]

fryup wrote: »

its certainly looks like its veered west..have we dodged a bullet?

looks that way alright

long_b

liam7831 wrote: »

Who in here knows anything about Hurricane Technical Analysis ðŸ˜†

The people who LIVE in this WEATHER forum you dolt.

__..__

long_b wrote: »

The people who LIVE in this WEATHER forum you dolt.

What's a dolt?

Xenji

It has turned quite gusty in Castlebar in the last half an hour, did not expect anything this early.

BLIZZARD7

Rekop dog wrote: »

Yeah thankfully just looks like 55km max in the east.

Where are you getting this from? Stop spouting nonsense without backing it up with charts etc.

Storm still looks on course to me as it's starting to vear NNE.

Rougies

long_b wrote: »

This thread is meant to be for TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057797471/125

There's another thread for chat, glib observations, uninformed conjecture and general arsery.

Don't bother, it's a lost cause. The mods are understandably getting some sleep and the thread will be cleared up in the morning.

You'd know that schools were cancelled tomorrow by some of the posts in here.

Dank Janniels

Wud it be ok to ask what the current state of play is at 4am?

fryup

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Where are you getting this from? Stop spouting nonsense without backing it up with charts etc.

Storm still looks on course to me as it's starting to vear NNE.

here look for yourself

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb

BLIZZARD7

fryup wrote: »

here look for yourself

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb

You linked to the sat view. Clearly shows the storm off the south west coast incoming. No reference to 55km max in the east.

Michelle_b

Latest update just now from National Hurricane Centre in Miami;

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...49.2N 13.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph (70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western Norway by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/. Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. $$ Forecaster Berg

fryup

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

You linked to the sat view. Clearly shows the storm off the south west coast incoming. No reference to 55km max in the east.

well its certainly not taking the path predicted