nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

MJohnston

lucernarian wrote: »

On an equally dramatic note, the last frame shows a somewhat westerly component to its movement?!

Compare with the NHC track though, and it's fairly well within predictions:

sdanseo

bloopy wrote: »

What does that mean if it is an eye?
Sorry for the questions. Been following this thread for the last day or two and it seems this storm keeps surprising people.

Generally speaking it means the storm has more cyclonic force and is more organised but this type of storm (the extra-tropical transition) is way beyond my basic understanding.

Paging MTC or others to explain.

Ghost Train

Middle Man wrote: »

Looks like progress is much faster than predicted...

does make it look like the forecasts don't match, at the speed it travelling would it not reach the south coast at 6am. where as forecast shows worst of it off the south coast at 1pm

Meteorite58

NOAA 00.00 16-10-17

YYqsV8d.png?1

spookwoman

Might be veering to east again. added 00.20 to the tracking

MJohnston

spookwoman wrote: »

Might be veering to east again. added 00.20 to the tracking

So far so accurate for that NHC track!

blackwave

spookwoman wrote: »

Might be veering to east again. added 00.20 to the tracking

It was always due to track West and then East from the NHC guidance. However it does seem to be slightly ahead of schedule.

Cantona's Collars

spookwoman wrote: »

Might be veering to east again. added 00.20 to the tracking

The earlier animation seems to show the Jetstream pushing everything Eastward as it gets nearer Ireland.That image seems to confirm this.

server down

spookwoman wrote: »

Might be veering to east again. added 00.20 to the tracking

That kink was in the models. Its amazing really.

cameramonkey

https://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp

Should these buoys in the south begin to see an increase in wave height and wind speed soon?

Kermit.de.frog

Euro4 9am

2forjoy

Just see it says a sting jet is developing on the SE side of Ophelia

MJohnston

K1 Buoy:

plot_met.php?station=62029&meas=pres&uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

signostic

2300Z Sat image

Hastentoadd

So I just asked the question many hours ago if the jetstream would push ophelia, negate ophelia or expand ophelia. I love having no clue but asking a valid question

Gaoth Laidir

Water vapour imagery shows that drier upper air is feeding around into the south of the circulation, cutting out the convection (white cold cloud tops) and causing that change in shape. The movement of that blob of cold clouds is not an indication of the movement of the surface centre, which is out of view in satellite imagery.

I don't think that's a sting jet as it's too early for that to form (needs to be occluding) and the jet is not strong enough (around 60-70 knots). Those grids are 300 nmi in length so about that to run to landfall.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/Netweather/status/919692125150892032

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919686855980806144

Bsal

Some lightning strikes appearing now

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919710844199546880

Magic ]=)

Here's real time lightning strikes map. There's quite a lot around Ophelia

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;y=50.6958;x=-10.1654;z=7;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;i=1;

1123heavy

144 pages and all i can seem to find is some lad has a flight out of cork and another saying he'd sack someone if they worked for them and called in sick.

I thought this was meant to be about technical discussions, I'm reading people say there has been some excellent info but i can't find it ... can someone please tell me what pages the gems are on?

lucernarian

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Water vapour imagery shows that drier upper air is feeding around into the south of the circulation, cutting out the convection (white cold cloud tops) and causing that change in shape. The movement of that blob of cold clouds is not an indication of the movement of the surface centre, which is out of view in satellite imagery.

I don't think that's a sting jet as it's too early for that to form (needs to be occluding) and the jet is not strong enough (around 60-70 knots). Those grids are 300 nmi in length so about that to run to landfall.

So those colder clouds you'd see here: http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/satellite.php

..are only showing the movement of upper-level air in a slightly westerly direction and not of the surface low? Especially with something like a clear eye appearing, there looked to be cohesion in wind direction between surface and upper levels and that the momentum was not at all easterly on the 0020 image.

Also the storm looks like it has an occlusion developing/developed on its northeastern edge.

Hastentoadd

Bsal wrote: »

Some lightning strikes appearing now

This looks like its going to hit in the next couple of hours rather than the 9am morning hit that was previously suggested?

Middle Man

It seems to be moving at well over 100mph northwards...

MJohnston

Bsal wrote: »

Some lightning strikes appearing now

I'm curious as to whether those strikes off the north-west tip of France are Ophelia related, the Estofex was indicating they were a possibility in that area too.

aidanodr

22538009_10208441345391432_1290348836_n.jpg?oh=d9f75aaa74c376eb411ad8f4411e2716&oe=59E659A9

Looks like a massive bullet dodged? Its off out to the Atlantic? Great news if so ..

BoatMad

ECMWF model still showing higher wind speeds on Wexford coast then Kerry , and in my experience models underestimate winds speeds, especially GFS

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

M.T. Cranium

Just ran an IR loop and noted rapid development of central calm spot (hesitate to call it an eye after the discussions earlier) and signature of very strong wrap-around winds as suggested on most guidance. Approx location 48N 12 W.

Pressure fall of about 11 mb at K1 buoy located about 40 miles nw of current estimated low and if it is at 960 mb, quite a pressure gradient, the buoy reads 988. They stopped taking wind obs unfortunately, 2.5 m waves (but on weak side of the storm).

Storm has loaded up on available heat energy, 21 C at Biscay buoy located 4 deg east of centre. SSTs near centre now about 16-17 C.

spookwoman

Sorry aidanodr Here's latest track with 1am def swing to the east