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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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KCAccidental

babybuilder wrote: »

It's good to see someone down playing this whole event and adding a little bit of "calm"

I think it's good to get both sides of the argument!

adox

listermint wrote: »

But most forecasts say they do.

Some folks seem to want the notoriety of picking outliers for the sake of it.

No, you said a hurricane arriving was the reason which is just incorrect.

These aren’t red alerts, they are weather warnings based on meeting certain criteria. Where is the data that says every county in Ireland will reach those wind speeds?

Doltanian

What direction will the wind be blowing from in the morning saw 6-10am here in Kenmare? Judging from the charts is seems it will be sweeping in from the West but due to the circular nature the storm I am sort of confused.

listermint

adox wrote: »

No, you said a hurricane arriving was the reason which is just incorrect.

These aren’t red alerts, they are weather warnings based on meeting certain criteria. Where is the data that says every county in Ireland will reach those wind speeds?

Okay fine where is the history in issuing red alerts for East and West counties and leaving the odd middle county orange. With a hurricane eye over them

....

Gaoth Laidir

listermint wrote: »

Okay fine where is the history in issuing red alerts for East and West counties and leaving the odd middle county orange. With a hurricane eye over them

....

There will be no hurricane eye over Ireland. There will be the centre of the depression, which we always get. The country is totally overreacting to this.

Birdnuts

Oscarziggy wrote: »

The BBC shipping forecast says this for Fastnet --
I've never heard the term in red used before .
Regards

Fastnet
Gale Warning: Gale warning issued 15 October 09:55 UTC (Open)
Southerly hurricane force 12 expected later
Wind
Cyclonic, mainly south or southwest, 5 to 7, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 later, occasionally hurricane force 12.
Sea State
Moderate or rough, becoming high or very high later, occasionally phenomenal.
Weather
Fair then rain.
Visibility
Good becoming poor.

For some reason Tony Ferrino popped into my head when I read that!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vH9tyqSjJvU

downwiththatsor

Doltanian wrote: »

What direction will the wind be blowing from in the morning saw 6-10am here in Kenmare? Judging from the charts is seems it will be sweeping in from the West but due to the circular nature the storm I am sort of confused.

Southerly / South Easterly while the centre of the low is approaching from the south, it will change direction after it passes.
Use this closer to the time in the morning. http://www.met.ie/forecasts/3hour.asp

See Met Eireanns image of where it will be at 12 tomorrow.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMMjv72WsAAdEHw.jpg

listermint

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There will be no hurricane eye over Ireland. There will be the centre of the depression, which we always get. The country is totally overreacting to this.

Grand so.

I'll listen to you so.

.

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There will be no hurricane eye over Ireland. There will be the centre of the depression, which we always get. The country is totally overreacting to this.

It's an exceptional event and better to overreact than under.

That said, I would share your worry that red warnings in a few places will not have severity to match and that might affect their effectiveness in the future.

East coast and Tipp / Kilkenny should probably have got red as there was guidance showing >130km/h gusts. The rest should probably have stayed orange.

It may well be the Dublin effect. As soon as it looked red for Dublin, it went national immediately. Maybe because of all the commuters?

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There will be no hurricane eye over Ireland. There will be the centre of the depression, which we always get. The country is totally overreacting to this.

Well Met Eireann have said in their warning there is potential risk to life so
they can't take any chances. Darwin was underplayed and caused a lot of damage,

Coles

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There will be no hurricane eye over Ireland. There will be the centre of the depression, which we always get. The country is totally overreacting to this.

No, you're wrong. You've been talking down this storm for 3 days and at every step it has become more severe and intense than you said it would. The meteorologists who run the models know exactly what the risks are and the decision to issue a red alert would have been very well considered.

It's time to listen to the professionals.

expectationlost

Coles wrote: »

No, you're wrong. You've been talking down this storm for 3 days and at every step it has become more severe and intense than you said it would. The meteorologists who run the models know exactly what the risks are and the decision to issue a red alert would have been very well considered.

It's time to listen to the professionals.

the q is whether their models are showing red criteria for whole country

spookwoman

Moving at some speed 2 hours in difference 18.35 and 20.35

M.T. Cranium

I can sympathize with the warning dilemma given that various counties may be partly red and partly orange level warning criteria. Anyway, we should let it go, people who come here for additional information will get what they need to know within the boundaries of the uncertainty inherent in the situation, and I don't think anyone could say for certain that point A on the map absolutely will not be at level 3, although at this point in time, I think the "real" level 3 is defined by anything east of the track of the low to about a northeast Galway to Meath line as north of that it's probable although not guaranteed that inland winds will be reduced by the cumulative friction of land encounter (this is overall why the low weakens from 12z Monday to 00z Tuesday) but here again, having all the country in red means no regrets and fewer people travelling from places they figure are safe to places not as safe as where they start the journey.

My own thinking on this storm has not changed much from my morning outlook but I am preparing an update for the forecast thread, hoping to post that at 9 pm.

Widdershins

What is the significance of the eye re-forming?

munsterlegend

Coles wrote: »

No, you're wrong. You've been talking down this storm for 3 days and at every step it has become more severe and intense than you said it would. The meteorologists who run the models know exactly what the risks are and the decision to issue a red alert would have been very well considered.

It's time to listen to the professionals.

To be fair he has described it as potent and noteworthy. He was also right recently re the hurricane in florida. However national authorities have to look at worst case scenario and don't have the luxury we have here.

Gaoth Laidir

Here's the maximum gusts chart from the Arpege, the most severe of the models, and yet about 75% of the country is below 130 kph.
But I suppose it is what it is so we should just go with them, right or wrong.

MJohnston

It's pretty obvious why they've gone with a widespread Red level warning imo - the models are not showing enough clarity on where Ophelia will track, and how hard she will hit. In any other circumstance, they'd hedge their bets, but this is Sunday evening, and if they don't declare a red warning for certain areas right now, it will be far too late to do it in the morning.

This is a blanket warning to get people to pay attention, make what little preparations they are still able to, and to goto bed with the knowledge that the situation may be dangerous when they wake up.

spookwoman

If it keeps at the same speed and direction possible position at 4.35

pauldry

Ophelias flying up the jet

Could be over at 11am at this rate

Cantona's Collars

Regarding the nitpicking over a level 3 here,a level 2 there. Perhaps the Red warning will concentrate people's thoughts and stop them from doing stupid sh1t and getting themselves or others into trouble,we are a small country being approached by a storm that is going to be the size of the island.Anyone who misses out on the worst of this are the lucky ones.

DOCARCH

spookwoman wrote: »

If it keeps at the same speed and direction possible position at 4.35

Moving quickly now alright....I retract my earlier theory of a possible miss!

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

Moving quickly now alright....I retract my earlier theory of a possible miss!

The french will be disappointed.

Middle Man

expectationlost wrote: »

the q is whether their models are showing red criteria for whole country

There are probably too many variables to take chances - the wind intensity at any given location very much depends on its direction which in turn depends on the exact path of the storm.

oppenheimer1

Coles wrote: »

No, you're wrong. You've been talking down this storm for 3 days and at every step it has become more severe and intense than you said it would. The meteorologists who run the models know exactly what the risks are and the decision to issue a red alert would have been very well considered.

It's time to listen to the professionals.

The vast majority of people here are interested amateurs at best but sometimes you have to defer to the professionals. They believe that the threat warrants a national warning even if a sheltered valley in North West meath escapes the worst. That's what we should believe.

nagdefy

DOCARCH wrote: »

Moving quickly now alright....I retract my earlier theory of a possible miss!

You were brave enough to venture the theory and if you were right the American Hurricane forecasters would be after you with a position:D

The One Doctor

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There will be no hurricane eye over Ireland. There will be the centre of the depression, which we always get. The country is totally overreacting to this.

How does an eye make any difference? The tropical storm still has a massive amount of energy and is currently reintensifying due to the warm waters around Spain. We're had destructive storms before with no eye to them.

What people need to understand is the destructive potential of fast moving air.

Wind energy is proportional to the third power of the wind speed; if windspeed doubles, the destructive energy increases eight times.

So 150kph winds are four times as destructive as 100kph winds.

The risk of injury to people comes from 'entrained debris', basically things (deckchairs, wheelie bins, branches, broken glass) being caught by the wind and hurled at you. The danger relates to the energy of the wind. The more wind, the heavier the object it can hurl at you and your house.

Hooter23

Met Eireann are right to give the entire country a red alert violent winds could appear almost anywhere within this storm...Better safe than sorry...

magicbastarder

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Regarding the nitpicking over a level 3 here,a level 2 there. Perhaps the Red warning will concentrate people's thoughts and stop them from doing stupid sh1t and getting themselves or others into trouble,we are a small country being approached by a storm that is going to be the size of the island.Anyone who misses out on the worst of this are the lucky ones.

maybe they have a little demon on their shoulder whispering 'remember michael fish... remember michael fish...'

Liffey4A

DOCARCH wrote: »

Moving quickly now alright....I retract my earlier theory of a possible miss!

Your input was appreciated, well explained and thought out.
I was having doubts myself!