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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Gaoth Laidir

925 hPa heights (dm) and winds (kt) from today's 12Z ECMWF, to give an idea of possible gusts.

Note how the height of this level ranges from around 400 metres near the centre to over 600 metres in the east. Winds at this level (possibly dragged down to the surface as gusts) are in the range of around 40 knots near the centre to around 90 knots over the Irish Sea (but around 250 m higher up there). Note the 70 knots barb near Galway Bay in the 15Z chart. Possible impact for that region.

Reckless Abandonment

sdanseo wrote: »

As a curiosity, when was the last time Dublin had a red warning?

I think it was for fog last winter. But cpuld be wrong. Can't remember one for rain or wind. System wasn't in place for the winter of 2010

JCX BXC

Red warning increased countrywide.

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland
Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track directly over Ireland during daytime Monday. Violent and destructive gusts are forecast with all areas at risk and in particular the southwest and south in the morning, and eastern counties in the afternoon. Also heavy rain and storm surges along some coasts will result in flooding.
There is potential risk to lives.

Issued:Sunday 15 October 2017 20:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Monday 16 October 2017 23:59

mirrorwall14

JCX BXC wrote: »

Red warning increased countrywide.

Where is that info?

star gazer

rte Red countrywide

Met Éireann has redesignated the entire country to a red level wind warning this evening as Hurricane Ophelia approaches.

The Department of Education said earlier that all schools in areas affected by Met Éireann's status red wind alert are to stay closed tomorrow.

arse..biscuits

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Where is that info?

http://www.met.ie/

adox

Red wind warning nationwide according to RTE although met.ie hasn’t changed yet

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/919640927920062464

dinorebel

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Where is that info?

rte

average_runner

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Where is that info?

Rte

spookwoman

They have also changed the time from 9am to 6am

Burts Bee

Fog has appeared here in north cork. Is this a phenomenon before a storm?

Oscar Bravo

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland
Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track directly over Ireland during daytime Monday. Violent and destructive gusts are forecast with all areas at risk and in particular the southwest and south in the morning, and eastern counties in the afternoon. Also heavy rain and storm surges along some coasts will result in flooding.
There is potential risk to lives.

Issued:Sunday 15 October 2017 20:00

sdanseo

New warning up on Met.ie

Wind Warning for Ireland
Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track directly over Ireland during daytime Monday. Violent and destructive gusts are forecast with all areas at risk and in particular the southwest and south in the morning, and eastern counties in the afternoon. Also heavy rain and storm surges along some coasts will result in flooding.
There is potential risk to lives.

Issued:Sunday 15 October 2017 20:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Monday 16 October 2017 23:59

Gaoth Laidir

12Z ECMWF winds at 100 metres marginally higher than the 00Z, with Force 12 (gold) now creeping up the east coast tomorrow afternoon. Subtract around 5-10% to estimate surface winds.

Malayalam

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Looking at sat 24 it's moving very fast over the last 15 minutes.. https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/infraPolair are the times correct were seeing here if it keep going that quick will it hight tonight rather than tomorrow.

That seems very fast...maybe the times are incorrect. At that speed it would be here in about 8 hours?

Widdershins

So it's possible that it will hit earlier?

And can anyone tell me if Clare, Kerry, Galway and Limerick are still in line for the brunt of it?

mayo.mick

https://twitter.com/deric_hartigan/status/919641898071011328

Gaoth Laidir

I don't get the idea of putting the whole country under red when a large portion of it will not get mean winds above 80 kph / gusts above 130 kph. Strange.

listermint

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't get the idea of putting the whole country under red when a large portion of it will not get mean winds above 80 kph mean/ gusts above 130 kph. Strange.

Quick edit there.. On the wind speeds.

I'd imagine a hurricane with an eye hitting land in Ireland is enough reason

babybuilder

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't get the idea of putting the whole country under red when a large portion of it will not get mean winds above 80 kph / gusts above 130 kph. Strange.

It's good to see someone down playing this whole event and adding a little bit of "calm"

Samaris

What does the eye reforming mean in this context? Will it dissipate again? Unsure if this is normal this far north.

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't get the idea of putting the whole country under red when a large portion of it will not get mean winds above 80 kph / gusts above 130 kph. Strange.

I'd tend to agree that on a technical level some parts won't get the required wind. North Leinster, Donegal and some parts of connacht even may escape that level.

However the potential for risk is clearly so great and the proportion of the country so huge that they've obviously felt they have no other option. I genuinely wasn't sure they would do it, and by technical measures maybe they shouldn't, but I understand why.

adox

listermint wrote: »

Quick edit there.. On the wind speeds.

I'd imagine a hurricane with an eye hitting land in Ireland is enough reason

Shouldn’t make any differnce if the expected wind speeds don’t meet the criteria.

sword1

Widdershins wrote: »

So it's possible that it will hit earlier?

And can anyone tell me if Clare, Kerry, Galway and Limerick are still in line for the brunt of it?

Not at the moment, the worst has moved east, you might have the strongest wind of this year or a couple of years, but the strongest in thirty years is heading for east Cork, waterford wexford, unless it alters west again

Gaoth Laidir

listermint wrote: »

Quick edit there.. On the wind speeds.

I'd imagine a hurricane with an eye hitting land in Ireland is enough reason

The criteria for Red don't include how a storm looks, only mean/gusts above 80/130 kph.

A lot of people in the midlands are going to be scratching their heads come Tuesday.

TheMilkyPirate

babybuilder wrote: »

It's good to see someone down playing this whole event and adding a little bit of "calm"

Gaoth Laidir is not downplaying this whole event he will tell you that himself

listermint

adox wrote: »

Shouldn’t make any differnce if the expected wind speeds don’t meet the criteria.

But most forecasts say they do.

Some folks seem to want the notoriety of picking outliers for the sake of it.

Reckless Abandonment

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't get the idea of putting the whole country under red when a large portion of it will not get mean winds above 80 kph / gusts above 130 kph. Strange.

I'd say they don't really know how this will all pan out. Probably playing it safe.

Hooter23

Widdershins wrote: »

So it's possible that it will hit earlier?

And can anyone tell me if Clare, Kerry, Galway and Limerick are still in line for the brunt of it?

Its hard to be sure depends on the track and how accurate the forecast charts are... looking at some of those charts its looks like the worst will be in the south and east but other charts also show a batch of violent winds in the afternoon/evening moving up parts of the west coast into Galway Bay...

listermint

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The criteria for Red don't include how a storm looks, only mean/gusts above 80/130 kph.

A lot of people in the midlands are going to be scratching their heads come Tuesday.

They sure don't. But it's a hurricane or as close to in Ireland. What's the point in trying to turn it down...