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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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patneve2

The greater Dublin area looks a bit more sheltered compared to other areas in the SW, South and SE although 70 kt gusts still a real possibility. Could be quite nasty with those SSE gusts tomorrow lunchtime - afternoon. Going for a 65-70 kt gust at Dublin airport, so a peak somewhere between 120 and 130 km/h. Unfortunately 80 kt + gusts look quite possible in the most affected areas further south - this could cause some serious damage.

Meteorite58

thomasj

amandstu wrote:

Is it just a coincidence that the eye is forecast to go up the West coast? Does the landmass act as a kind of guide for its (the eye's) course?

it loses its eye when it becomes a tropical storm

Hooter23

I think some places that are not in the red alert areas may get some surprises too with squall lines threatening to give severe winds to almost anywhere...

Gaoth Laidir

A sneaky shot of someone at Met Éireann's screen, showing the Harmonie model mean winds. Taken from the RTE website.

amandstu

Is it just a coincidence that the eye is forecast to go up the West coast? Does the landmass act as a kind of guide for its (the eye's) course?

MJohnston

Full Marx wrote: »

How is it looking on the east coast? Louth Meath and Dublin?

I don't understand these charts at all I'm afraid. Is purple the worst?

They’re pretty simple to read - theres a colour code chart along the bottom with numbers listed in km/h, so the purple is indeed at the higher end of the scale.

Oneiric 3

Met.no (Norway met office) has the storm remaining as a tropical feature as it reaches the SW coast tomorrow, despite having occluded before that:

Meteorite58

That is again further east.

Yes, ECM seems to have nudged a bit E as well.

Gaoth Laidir

I think Joanna's comment on Cat 2 winds refers to gusts, not sustained winds.

Again, when looking at NHC figures, subtract around 11% to get Beaufort 10-minute mean speeds.

MJohnston

munsterlegend wrote: »

That is again further east.

It seems to have slightly adjusted back to the track we were seeing on Friday, after moving a touch west yesterday.

Full Marx

How is it looking on the east coast? Louth Meath and Dublin?

I don't understand these charts at all I'm afraid. Is purple the worst?

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Hi Res WRF-NMM 06Z

Mean

Gust

That is again further east.

Meteorite58

Hi Res WRF-NMM 06Z

Mean

Gust

Gaoth Laidir

OOZ ECMWF winds for 100 metres. Subtract around 5-10% to estimate surface winds. Force 10 or 11 likely at the surface in souther coastal areas.

Slight upgrade for the 09Z chart compared to yesterday's chart, showing a Cat 2 purple area inside the Cat 1 gold area south of Ireland.

12Z, the Cat 1 gold area is just on the Cork/Waterford coast.

By 15Z there is a tiny area of Force 12 in Galway bay, but otherwise it's storm force through the rest of the country.

18Z, the southeast and east still getting storm force winds.

Oneiric 3

Latest image. Eye still visible but seems to be fading away over the last while:

JCX BXC

12pm TAF (Terminal Area Forecast) issued. Makes for some fun reading! (If you're a duck.... maybe)

Dublin

Regular
BECMG 1608/1610 12015G26KT
BECMG 1610/1612 16025G35KT

Decoded
9am-11am, wind 120 degrees (E) 15kts gusting to 26kts
11am-1pm wind 160 degrees (SE) 25kts gusting to 35kts

Shannon

Regular
BECMG 1605/1607 06025G35KT
BECMG 1609/1612 12035G55KT

Decoded
6am-8am, wind 060 degrees (NE) 25G35KT
9am-12pm wind 120 degrees (E) 35G55KT

Cork

Regular
BECMG 1603/1606 07020G30KT
BECMG 1607/1609 17030G45KT
BECMG 1609/1611 17040G60KT

Decoded
4am-7am wind 070 degrees (NE) 20kts gusting 30kts
8am-10am wind 170 degrees (S) 30kts gusting to 45kts
10am-12pm wind 170 degrees (S) 40kts gusting to 60kts

Knock

Regular
BECMG 1608/1610 08025G35KT
BECMG 1610/1612 12030G40KT

Decoded
9am-11am wind 080 degrees (E) 25kts gusting to 35kts
11am- 1pm wind 120 degrees (E) 30kts gusting to 40kts

*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*

Expect disruption.

Shannon and Cork coming in with the highest gusts early on, 55kts and 60kts respectively. With that forecast only valid to 1pm, we can expect stronger gusts to be forecast in the 6pm TAF.

Meteorite58

MJohnston wrote: »

To clarify, do you mean a slight shift compared to the last AROME run, of compared to the consensus track?

To me both the the GFS and AROME have shifted E slightly since their last runs.

mirrorwall14

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Outside view of events to unfold.

I’m thoroughly confused by the reaction of the Irish Media versus the international media. Is there a possibility of anything Met Eireann are seeing that we aren’t that could explain the laid back “school buses are cancelled” coverage?

Meteorite58

Outside view of events to unfold.

TABOihf.png?1

MJohnston

Meteorite58 wrote: »

AROME 06Z coming out. looks like a slight shift East

To clarify, do you mean a slight shift compared to the last AROME run, of compared to the consensus track?

TheMilkyPirate

GFS seems to have the strongest gusts in the south between 2-3pm tomorrow afternoon yet the harmonie-arome model above has it as between 5-7pm? Any reason why

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

AROME 06Z coming out. looks like a slight shift E

Mean

Gusts

Perhaps a trend developing. it has definitely moved a little bit.

Oneiric 3

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Looks like Mayo is probably no longer Red but counties to the south and east of it will be Red.

Kind of validates Met E's decision not make a call >48 hours out.

ECM model, which is one of the main models they use, still shows the potential for a small area of strong winds to move up the west coast for a time tomorrow, which I guess is causing them headaches, since all other models have the low moving inland, killing off this potential. EC will probably fall in line on the 12z run later.

Cloudio9

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Still no change in the counties with red alerts. Looking at the maps I don't see why more eastern counties are not red. Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo will probably be just about yellow level.

They probably will be but it's not just a case of flicking a switch to red and back to orange as things evolve..

Red warning kicks off a chain of events with local authorities, schools etc in the affected counties.

Meteorite58

AROME 06Z coming out. looks like a slight shift E

Mean

Gusts

fraxinus1

Still no change in the counties with red alerts. Looking at the maps I don't see why more eastern counties are not red. Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo will probably be just about yellow level.

server down

So a storm with the equivalent of a category 2. How does that rate historically?

Captain Snow

Direct Hit

Toxica

ngunners wrote: »

Is it just me or does this link lead back to this thread?

This is the chat thread http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057797471