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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Irish Steve

Sky News giving very good coverage of the progress of Ophelia, and also emphasising suitable warnings of what's coming our way.

LEIN

I am very excited and nervous at the same time for this event.

Interesting days ahead.

JCX BXC

Update from Met Eireann

RED & ORANGE STATUS WARNINGS IN EFFECT. Stormy tomorrow Monday as Ex-Hurricane Ophelia moves up over the country. Gale to storm force southerly winds will occur with severe and damaging gusts - winds strongest along southern counties with the risk of storm surge here, along with very high seas. Structural damage is possible anywhere. Rain will be widespread also, with the heaviest falls likely to occur in Atlantic coastal counties. Localised flooding is possible with thundery falls. The winds will veer southwesterly as the low pressure system tracks northwards over western parts of the country. Highest temperatures will range 15 to 19 degrees Celsius.

Additional Note: At present, the strongest and most damaging winds are now forecasted to affect Munster and south Leinster, particularly the southwest, south and Irish Sea coasts with the heaviest rainfall accumulations in Connacht, west Ulster and west Munster. There are likely to be changes to the warnings which will be updated later this morning, pending the latest up to date guidance. This is an evolving situation and your patience is appreciated.

flazio

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's now the main item on CNN website!!!!

These news websites take into account where you are logging in from and display news they feel is most relevant to you.
Someone logging in to CNN from New Zealand might not even have that on the page.

cherryghost

So ICON and ARPEGE has been calling what Met Eireann just announced for about 24hrs now. Their models have more extreme gusts so I hope they're also not correct in this regards. If it was true, I would see Red Alerts for all Munster, all Leinster coast counties +75-100km inland counties. Looking at 150+kp/h gusts with sustained winds of 70-90kp/h

Steopo

There's been mention of the possibility of 'sting jets' from this storm. This was a factor in generating some of the strongest winds in Great Storm of 1987

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/sting-jet

Phibsboro

flazio wrote: »

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's now the main item on CNN website!!!!

These news websites take into account where you are logging in from and display news they feel is most relevant to you.
Someone logging in to CNN from New Zealand might not even have that on the page.

Actually in New Zealand you would see the exact same page. Most brand name news sites don't go to a country level of granularity when doing editions. CNN only had two editions, US and international. The Ireland storm story is actually "front page" on the us edition as well, just not the main headline.

harr

Steopo wrote: »

There's been mention of the possibility of 'sting jets' from this storm. This was a factor in generating some of the strongest winds in Great Storm of 1987

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/sting-jet

Can someone explain what sting jets are please and thanks ...they sound lethal

The high horse brigade

harr wrote: »

Can someone explain what sting jets are please and thanks ...they sound lethal

Watch the video in the link, it's explained well there

George Sunsnow

harr wrote: »

Can someone explain what sting jets are please and thanks ...they sound lethal

All you need to know is they are areas of much more extreme gusts and thunderstorms that are very possible given the tropical remenants interacting with a cold jet stream
You’ll get a technical description on google

NegativeCreep

What is the probability of this spawning tornadoes? I know the hurricanes in America do and I’m terrified of tornadoes!

server down

Phibsboro wrote: »

Actually in New Zealand you would see the exact same page. Most brand name news sites don't go to a country level of granularity when doing editions. CNN only had two editions, US and international. The Ireland storm story is actually "front page" on the us edition as well, just not the main headline.

Yes. None of the rest of that page is Irish specific. Or even European specific. This is fairly big news in the US because they tend to report excitedly on hurricanes. Good for 24h news.

pad199207

Latest from Joanna

“Latest update; transition to ex-tropical status in construction. maintaining hurricane force winds. Likely to hit with cat2 strength.”

Samaris

NegativeCreep wrote: »

What is the probability of this spawning tornadoes? I know the hurricanes in America do and I’m terrified of tornadoes!

That was asked somewhere a few pages back, although I can't find it now. Upshot was that it's possible, yeah. Along with thunderstorms. The conditions are produced in a hurricane to spawn them anyway, but may or may not.

cherryghost

3 charts in relative agreement of where exactly damaging wind will occur.

Waterford and Cork especially are going to get hammered.

harr

server down wrote: »

Yes. None of the rest of that page is Irish specific. Or even European specific. This is fairly big news in the US because they tend to report excitedly on hurricanes. Good for 24h news.

Have relations in New York and I just got a text wishing me all the best and to stay safe :eek:
It’s being widely reported as a major weather event over there

MJohnston

NegativeCreep wrote: »

What is the probability of this spawning tornadoes? I know the hurricanes in America do and I’m terrified of tornadoes!

Low probability, but the conditions for it are there, check out the Estofex which predicts the probability of severe convective storms (ie. thunderstorms, tornados and such):

http://www.estofex.org

Key words from their latest forecast:

“Forecast soundings show low LCLs and intense LL shear (30 m/s 0-1 km shear and SRH-1 in excess of 400 m^2/s^2) . This is enough for rotating updrafts with an isolated tornado risk. ”

Stheno

cherryghost wrote: »

3 charts in relative agreement of where exactly damaging wind will occur.

Waterford and Cork especially are going to get hammered.

Is purple not much worse than red though, indicating that it's the south and east that will get hammered?

Sephiroth_dude

So too summarize.......were basically ****ed down here in Cork.

PLL

harr wrote: »

Have relations in New York and I just got a text wishing me all the best and to stay safe :eek:
It’s being widely reported as a major weather event over there

Wind speeds of a cat 2 hurricane is a major event. There will be people all over Ireland walking around going about their day to day business, suddenly finding themselves in danger. People in countries used to this weather wouldn't be so laid back and walking around.

Captain Snow

Cat 2 Hurricane is a deadly weather event. This cant be stressed enough. Stay inside on Monday and Tuesday. There is going to be a lot of destruction. Stay safe.

kevin12345

cherryghost wrote: »

3 charts in relative agreement of where exactly damaging wind will occur.

Waterford and Cork especially are going to get hammered.

What's the likelihood of south Tipperary being upgraded to Status Red based on those models?

thomasj

Captain Snow wrote:

Cat 2 Hurricane is a deadly weather event. This cant be stressed enough. Stay inside on Monday and Tuesday.

It won't be a hurricane

fryup

thomasj wrote: »

It won't be a hurricane

but, you'll have hurricane force gusts

sjb25

Captain Snow wrote: »

Cat 2 Hurricane is a deadly weather event. This cant be stressed enough. Stay inside on Monday and Tuesday.

This lads by the sounds of it now iv to work I will be out in this but I work in emergency services so I have to be out in it but if you don't stay at home if possible

Stheno

sjb25 wrote: »

This lads by the sounds of it now iv to work I will be out in this but I work in emergency services so I have to be out in it but if you don't stay at home if possible

Best of luck tomorrow. Take care of yourselves

munsterlegend

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

So too summarize.......were basically ****ed down here in Cork.

Yeah will be chaotic if goes as planned particularly in rural areas. It's going to be crazy.

LEIN

thomasj wrote: »

It won't be a hurricane

Depends on the final track.

thomasj

fryup wrote:

but, you'll have hurricane force gusts

The last guidance I saw from the national hurricane centre said storm force as opposed to hurricane force.

Picky owner

I don't really understand ,what is the purple or red on the charts,which is more stronger,am in Waterford.