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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Hal1

Any new images of the eye wall, is it still visible? I can only see one from yesterday.

firemansam4

Hal1 wrote: »

Any new images of the eye wall, is it still visible? I can only see one from yesterday.

You can follow the progress of it from this site, Looks like its starting to degrade somewhat now:

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/forecast/europe/with-controls/europe-infrared-sat-loop.php

crustybla

This thread is fascinating, I've learned so much about storms. Thanks so much to the posters keeping us informed, much appreciated! In Waterford, keep hoping when I log in that it may have moved (preferably disappeared!) but it's looking like a sure thing.
I hope you all remain safe over the next day or two.

Lumi

Hal1 wrote: »

Any new images of the eye wall, is it still visible? I can only see one from yesterday.

Colorado State University have excellent links to real-time resources here

hoody

According to their Twitter timeline, Met Eireann are taking part in a National Emergency meeting at 10.30, imagine there will be a press conference or update after that with warning levels to be updated too.

Hope all stay safe and the damage / impact is minimal. Mondays are hard enough as it is!

fraxinus1

The Nutty M wrote: »

All the knowledgeable posters in this thread must be catching up on their sleep because there is a few wishy washy ones sneaking in.

You're very harsh on yourself....

firemansam4

hoody wrote: »

According to their Twitter timeline, Met Eireann are taking part in a National Emergency meeting at 10.30, imagine there will be a press conference or update after that with warning levels to be updated too.

Hope all stay safe and the damage / impact is minimal. Mondays are hard enough as it is!

Timing seems to be just after the NHC next release

Gaoth Laidir

This SSSMI 37H image from 7 am looks like a big arm and hand extending from Ireland and grabbing Ophelia this way. The orange shows where the rain is. We can see that southwest part of the convection is gone now and the eye is open. The second image shows where the deep convection (pink) is, all to the north and removed from the eyewall. Ophelia is now going through extratropical transition.

20171015.0558.f16.x.37h.17LOPHELIA.90kts-964mb-380N-197W.81pc.jpg

20171015.0558.f16.x.37h.17LOPHELIA.90kts-964mb-380N-197W.81pc.jpg

20171015.0558.f16.x.color37.17LOPHELIA.90kts-964mb-380N-197W.81pc.jpg

firemansam4

Seems that next advisory #25 is just coming in:

Chong

fryup wrote: »

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

its moving at a snail pace, will it reach ireland at all??

Thats what I was thinking, is it meant to pick up pace ?

firemansam4

Mean Wind speed probabilities:

Lumi

fraxinus1 wrote: »

You're very harsh on yourself....

Mod Note
Stop trying to derail the thread
Either contribute constructively to the weather forum or not at all

Final warning!

BoatMad

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This SSSMI 37H image from 7 am looks like a big arm and hand extending from Ireland and grabbing Ophelia this way. The orange shows where the rain is. We can see that southwest part of the convection is gone now and the eye is open. The second image shows where the deep convection (pink) is, all to the north and removed from the eyewall. Ophelia is now going through extratropical transition.

No model shows an actual hurricane hitting Ireland , it will be an extra tropical storm. ( not that isn't as bad )

Discodog

Seems like it's arriving a little earlier than predicted

Gaoth Laidir

Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL172017 500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...39.0N 18.3W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 18.3 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A continued northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today and on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). Ophelia's eye recently passed near a drifting buoy that measured a pressure of 970.9 mb (28.67 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves

Villain

Public Advisory 25 for Ophelia from NHC

000
WTNT32 KNHC 150840
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...39.0N 18.3W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 18.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today and
on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful
post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
Ophelia's eye recently passed near a drifting buoy that measured a
pressure of 970.9 mb (28.67 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

BoatMad

While the focus seems to be in the south west , the models show how higher wind speeds on the south leister coast

Cloudio9

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This SSSMI 37H image from 7 am looks like a big arm and hand extending from Ireland and grabbing Ophelia this way

Yeah that’s God’s arm pulling it this way as punishment for having a referendum on the 8th amendment.

fryup

BoatMad wrote: »

While the focus seems to be in the south west , the models show how higher wind speeds on the south leister coast

yes, take a look at this :eek:

pad199207

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Yeah that’s God’s arm pulling it this way as punishment for having a referendum on the 8th amendment.

Is that really necessary?

Cloudio9

Discodog wrote: »

Seems like it's arriving a little earlier than predicted

Remember the times in the US charts are 5 hours behind us.

The times on the Euro charts are 1 hour ahead.

Cloudio9

pad199207 wrote: »

Is that really necessary?

Just a joke relax.

2forjoy

With coastal flooding a definate , I presume the rivers will overflow their banks too .

Lumi

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Yeah that’s God’s arm pulling it this way as punishment for having a referendum on the 8th amendment.

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Just a joke relax.

Stay on topic - take your ‘jokes’ elsewhere

stefanovich

fryup wrote: »

yes, take a look at this :eek:

That website is hypnotic!

mickger844posts

A new link for my Youtube Live stream. Might be interesting this time tomorrow.

www.waterfordweather.com

JanuarySnowstor

I think one of the changes Met Eireann should make,

1) Draw attention to storm surge on South coast.
2) Expand red alert to much larger swathe of country

Gaoth Laidir

Ophelia is down to 90 knots now.

dusty207

Wonder if Met Eireann is monitoring this thread to see what to advise

Hal1

Forescast winds expected to reach bft12 between 4 and 7am. In the south west.
https://en.sat24.com/en/forecastimages/europa/forecastwind