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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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JanuarySnowstor

Well 06z gfs is identical to previous run.
Wrap around as storm clears may lead to a nationwide red with emphasis on South.
I see no reason why Midlands, Dublin should avoid going red as it's also under threat as storm pulls away

ch750536

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I think one of the changes Met Eireann should make,

1) Draw attention to storm surge on South coast.
2) Expand red alert to much larger swathe of country

Agreed on the storm surge, looking non trivial at the moment.

leahyl

So it seems Joanna Donnelly was quite nervous when she did the forecast last night - just saw a tweet from her and she said it the first time she has ever felt nervous regarding the weather, has complete confidence in the forecast though

Nettle Soup

Is it true that Wexford to Cork will take the brunt of this storm and that Galway/Mayo could be downgraded?

RobertKK

The southern counties of Ireland will be upgraded to status red wind warning going by what Met Eireann, the National Hurricane Center and the weather models are showing.

There is very likely to be rainfall warnings for the western part of the country.

Warnings about staying away from coastal locations due to high seas needs to be emphasised.

The potential for loss of life and property destruction is high.

whippet

Worst of the wind will be gone and Tuesday good chance of no electricity also .. so bbq will be a god send

stefanovich

Nettle Soup wrote: »

I doubt it, I'd say they have enough to monitor to be fair.

The emergency meeting should be starting now. I'd imagine we'll get an update from them after that concludes.

Nettle Soup

dusty207 wrote: »

Wonder if Met Eireann is monitoring this thread to see what to advise

I doubt it, I'd say they have enough to monitor to be fair.

George Sunsnow

Michael fish is on bbc news 24 now mainly on the 87 storm
He may speak of today too
He’s looking very old

On tomorrow,Very nasty conditions
90 mph gusts he says in Ireland tomorrow

Gaoth Laidir

Liffey4A wrote: »

I've read your comments yesterday with interest. You are edging on the very windy day versus large storm from Met eireann side of things etc.

I know your not trolling but am genuinely interested on why you think the models and forecasters are wrong on this one?

I'm finding it difficult to believe we are going to get a huge storm despite all the forecasts pointing to one.
It's probably years of disappointment from previous snow forecasts etc, but in saying that I've taken all necessary precautions and warned others to do the same.

I never said they were wrong. I was only pointing out the difference in NHC intensities and that we should subtract about 11% from their figures to get them in our speak, what we're used to.

It's going to be very bad in the south, don't get me wrong.

bnt

Lumi wrote: »

Update from Ryan Maue earlier this morning

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/919407554073124864

I would just add a clarification about the kind of chart he used in that tweet. He talks about "0-2 km above surf" i.e. those charts don't show the wind speed at ground level. They are marked "850 HPa", which translates to roughly 5,000 feet above sea level. It's not a fixed height, but a "pressure height", which is why it can vary and he doesn't give an exact figure. So when you see a chart, just be aware that it might not be describing or predicting the situation at ground level (10m), but much higher up.

Liffey4A

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Ophelia is down to 90 knots now.

I've read your comments yesterday with interest. You are edging on the very windy day versus large storm from Met eireann side of things etc.

I know your not trolling but am genuinely interested on why you think the models and forecasters are wrong on this one?

I'm finding it difficult to believe we are going to get a huge storm despite all the forecasts pointing to one.
It's probably years of disappointment from previous snow forecasts etc, but in saying that I've taken all necessary precautions and warned others to do the same.

SeaBreezes

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919470638842171392/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMetEireann%2Fstatus%2F919470638842171392

Cloudio9

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Ophelia is down to 90 knots now.

I guess the relevant information is if that’s more, less or same as expected ?

leahyl

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Ophelia is down to 90 knots now.

Is it going to weaken significantly before Monday would you think?

George Sunsnow

dusty207 wrote: »

Wonder if Met Eireann is monitoring this thread to see what to advise?

I doubt it

Hal1

Forescast winds expected to reach bft12 between 4 and 7am. In the south west.
https://en.sat24.com/en/forecastimages/europa/forecastwind

dusty207

Wonder if Met Eireann is monitoring this thread to see what to advise

Gaoth Laidir

Ophelia is down to 90 knots now.

JanuarySnowstor

I think one of the changes Met Eireann should make,

1) Draw attention to storm surge on South coast.
2) Expand red alert to much larger swathe of country

mickger844posts

A new link for my Youtube Live stream. Might be interesting this time tomorrow.

www.waterfordweather.com

stefanovich

fryup wrote: »

yes, take a look at this :eek:

That website is hypnotic!

Lumi

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Yeah that’s God’s arm pulling it this way as punishment for having a referendum on the 8th amendment.

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Just a joke relax.

Stay on topic - take your ‘jokes’ elsewhere

2forjoy

With coastal flooding a definate , I presume the rivers will overflow their banks too .

Cloudio9

pad199207 wrote: »

Is that really necessary?

Just a joke relax.

Cloudio9

Discodog wrote: »

Seems like it's arriving a little earlier than predicted

Remember the times in the US charts are 5 hours behind us.

The times on the Euro charts are 1 hour ahead.

pad199207

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Yeah that’s God’s arm pulling it this way as punishment for having a referendum on the 8th amendment.

Is that really necessary?

fryup

BoatMad wrote: »

While the focus seems to be in the south west , the models show how higher wind speeds on the south leister coast

yes, take a look at this :eek:

Cloudio9

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This SSSMI 37H image from 7 am looks like a big arm and hand extending from Ireland and grabbing Ophelia this way

Yeah that’s God’s arm pulling it this way as punishment for having a referendum on the 8th amendment.

BoatMad

While the focus seems to be in the south west , the models show how higher wind speeds on the south leister coast