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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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GeneHunt

munsterlegend wrote: »

I have a good weather app called weather pro.

I did a search* for that app and got a few results which one have you?!

WeatherPro (free)
WeatherPro (€2.99)
Weather Pro (€4.59)
The Weather Pro (€4.19)
The Weather - Pro (€4.99)

*Android search

DOCARCH

Not sure who did the Radio 1 forecast at 7.55?

It was one of the best forecasts I ever heard delivered by ME (on radio or TV).

Explained the volatility of the situation, the transformation of hurricane to extra tropical storm and explained that very small movements of the track of the storm will have big implications for some areas.

munsterlegend

GeneHunt wrote: »

I did a search* for that app and got a few results which one have you?!

WeatherPro (free)
WeatherPro (€2.99)
Weather Pro (€4.59)
The Weather Pro (€4.19)
The Weather - Pro (€4.99)

*Android search

I think I paid 5 euro before on apple.

It's just called WeatherPro on that.

Meteorite58

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not sure who did the Radio 1 forecast at 7.55?

It was one of the best forecasts I ever heard delivered by ME (on radio or TV).

Explained the volatility of the situation, the transformation of hurricane to extra tropical storm and explained that very small movements of the track of the storm will have big implications for some areas.

A very borderline red situation for a lot of counties. I wonder when they will update their warnings.

Jaycornyn

venusdoom wrote: »

Following this post for the last few days. Thank you so much for all the contributions. Prepared here in Donegal, but we may escape the worst. I don't know if this is related to what's to come, but we have a heavy purple sky right now. We are up early every morning and never seen such hue in the clouds.

Had the same sky here too. Leitrim area. Gone now. I can't imagine they are related. Still 24h out at this stage.

fits

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not sure who did the Radio 1 forecast at 7.55?

It was one of the best forecasts I ever heard delivered by ME (on radio or TV).

Explained the volatility of the situation, the transformation of hurricane to extra tropical storm and explained that very small movements of the track of the storm will have big implications for some areas.

It was Liz Walsh I think. Agree it was a good forecast.

DOCARCH

fits wrote: »

It was Liz Walsh I think. Agree it was a good forecast.

Yip....just could not think of her name off the top of my head.

harr

So odd to see the likes of cnn and likes reporting on this especially after being glued to threads and tv on the likes of Irma and now we have our very own bearing down on us ( or up to us ).
Went out yesterday to get a couple of lamps and the amount of people taking this with a pinch of salt.

CloughCasey1

Is there any chance that Ophelia could just drive on towards us and only drop to a cat 1 hurricane and hit with those wind speeds? It seems to be "going against the grain" so to speak since it formed.

ixus

I find it odd the nation is not on more of an alert given the devastation the tail of Gert hit Donegal & Derry with. Funny how people think.

Appreciate the updates.

Lumi

Update from Ryan Maue earlier this morning

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/919407554073124864

fraxinus1

From reading the posts on here it looks like Donegal will not be hit by anything more than a gale. And that suits me fine. I hope everyone else down on the south coast is OK.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest wind analysis, showing the expansion of the wind field. Max winds 86 knots.

06Z early track guidance. Majority fairly tightly clustered. Still as you were.

GEFS box plot

Romantic Rose

fraxinus1 wrote: »

From reading the posts on here it looks like Donegal will not be hit by anything more than a gale. And that suits me fine. I hope everyone else down on the south coast is OK.

From my limited knowledge of reading charts, I thought south Donegal is in the eye of the storm?

Mickeroo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Latest wind analysis, showing the expansion of the wind field. Max winds 86 knots.

06Z early track guidance. Majority fairly tightly clustered. Still as you were.

GEFS box plot

One of those tracks predicts it driving in over Spain and France or am I misunderstanding? I take it that's seen as unlikely.

Gaoth Laidir

Note there is a dedicated thread for flight cancellations in the Aviation & Aircraft forum, so that would be the place to check.

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057797630/1/#post104972259

In the meantime, Cork's TAF (valid up to 7 am tomorrow) shows easterly winds starting to increase from 4 am, but only 20, gusting 30 knots at that stage. The next 24-hr TAF will be issued before midday.

TAF:
TAF EICK 150500Z 1506/1606 18014KT 9999 BKN008 BKN015
BECMG 1507/1510 3000 BR -RADZ BKN003
TEMPO 1510/1603 0200 FG -DZ BKN001
BECMG 1518/1520 01005KT
--- Following start after midnight local time ---
BECMG 1603/1606 07020G30KT 9999 NSW SCT025

Gaoth Laidir

Mickeroo wrote: »

One of those tracks predicts it driving in over Spain and France or am I misunderstanding? I take it that's seen as unlikely.

Just an outlier. It was out on the pints last night.

fraxinus1

Romantic Rose wrote: »

From my limited knowledge of reading charts, I thought south Donegal is in the eye of the storm?

The severe winds are to the south of the eye

harr

When are Met reann likely to update the warnings on this or when are RTgoing to start telling people to prepare just in case..
It odd to be getting news pop ups on my phone from cnn and various apps warning of huge wind damage if this does hit us..
Surely at this stage it’s time to be telling people to take precautions even if it does seem premature.

Mickeroo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just an outlier. It was out on the pints last night.

So that's why it's so unpredictable :pac:

fraxinus1

harr wrote: »

When are Met reann likely to update the warnings on this or when are RTgoing to start telling people to prepare just in case..
It odd to be getting news pop ups on my phone from cnn and various apps warning of huge wind damage if this does hit us..
Surely at this stage it’s time to be telling people to take precautions even if it does seem premature.

Everyone is assuming Met Eireann will update warnings and expand the areas under a red alert. Maybe there is no need for them to do so. This event may not even happen.... as in it may be a storm but nothing out if the ordinary?

The Nutty M

All the knowledgeable posters in this thread must be catching up on their sleep because there is a few wishy washy ones sneaking in.

squarecircles

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Everyone is assuming Met Eireann will update warnings and expand the areas under a red alert. Maybe there is no need for them to do so. This event may not even happen.... as in it may be a storm but nothing out if the ordinary?

Probably Dropping certain counties from the red warning,like Mayo and Galway,looks more like a level yellow warning for Mayo now.

Yoghurt87

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Everyone is assuming Met Eireann will update warnings and expand the areas under a red alert. Maybe there is no need for them to do so. This event may not even happen.... as in it may be a storm but nothing out if the ordinary?

Met Eireann have stated themselves that they are likely to update the warnings later this morning.

sjb25

The Nutty M wrote: »

All the knowledgeable posters in this thread must be catching up on their sleep because there is a few wishy washy ones sneaking in.

Yeah think all the boardsie weather gurus are catching up on sleep so the can stay up tonight

I no the posters I trust on here they are great

harr

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Everyone is assuming Met Eireann will update warnings and expand the areas under a red alert. Maybe there is no need for them to do so. This event may not even happen.... as in it may be a storm but nothing out if the ordinary?

But surely that’s the problem nobody knows at this stage...no point in telling people it may not happen and suddenly it doesn’t weaken or change track and slams into us.
Is it not better to have people prepared instead of panicking people late tonight or tomorrow.
Nobody can tell at this stage so why leave it to chance and also the powers to be only having an emergency meeting the day before is another stupid decision ...

sjb25

harr wrote: »

When are Met reann likely to update the warnings on this or when are RTgoing to start telling people to prepare just in case..
It odd to be getting news pop ups on my phone from cnn and various apps warning of huge wind damage if this does hit us..
Surely at this stage it’s time to be telling people to take precautions even if it does seem premature.

They are holding of so the can give people correct information which I think is reasonable I'm living in Wexford we have not got a red warning but from what has been said from met eireann alone I no it's coming I no I should prepare for stong winds and uv done that I don't need a red warning to that

I've work tomorrow is a 12 hour shift which evolves driving and being out doors happy day

firemansam4

Mickeroo wrote: »

One of those tracks predicts it driving in over Spain and France or am I misunderstanding? I take it that's seen as unlikely.

I can see 3 tracks that are veering off over northern Spain, I wonder what the thinking is on that?

BoatMad

Looking at the ECMWF models , it looks like the south east will get the highest winds , with the west getting the higest rainfall.models usually underpredict wind strength imho

( GFS broadly agreeing , but more west direction to the wind ) high winds along south Leinster cost , but west orientation would be less damaging )