nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

Danno

s.m wrote: »

Everyone keeps on about a hurricane hitting this country but there's never been any record of one affecting our lovely land. Though mind you the records do only go back to late 1961 after the original building holding the records mysteriously blew away.

On a more serious note how will Donegal fair in this situation ?

Classic!

:D:pac:

Middle Man

You can track it here...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-11.00,46.16,1500

maiden

Wind building in Ennis!

MJohnston

maiden wrote: »

Wind building in Ennis!

This is not caused by Ophelia. Nothing wind-wise will be caused by Ophelia until early Monday morning. There will actually be a very calm spell late Sunday too, right before she hits.

I do worry that a lot of people will only have been consuming the news about Ophelia at a glance, will hear the blustery conditions tonight, think that was it all over, and get caught out on Monday.

Grandeeod

MJohnston wrote: »

This is not caused by Ophelia. Nothing wind-wise will be caused by Ophelia until early Monday morning. There will actually be a very calm spell late Sunday too, right before she hits.

I do worry that a lot of people will only have been consuming the news about Ophelia at a glance, will hear the blustery conditions tonight, think that was it all over, and get caught out on Monday.

Social media is awash with complacency about this potential event. So much smart arse bravado going on.

pauldry

Funny (not) to see a hurricane rolling up towards Ireland

This is what man has done to the atmosphere

compsys

Grandeeod wrote: »

Social media is awash with complacency about this potential event. So much smart arse bravado going on.

I wouldn’t call it being smart arsed.

So many weather events get hyphed up beyond belief by the media nowadays (and in here it’s ten times worse with the snow “event” threads) that people have become a bit jaded about “warnings”.

The OTT decision last year to start naming every large depression that passed over the country was silly and hasn’t helped in my opinion. Storm Aileen anyone?

The entire system could yet pass us.

Danno

pauldry wrote: »

Funny (not) to see a hurricane rolling up towards Ireland

This is what man has done to the atmosphere

What did man do in 1839 - the night of the big wind???

The last hurricane to hit Ireland was 1987, (30 yrs ago) before that was 1961 (26 yrs before that). If anything, these hurricanes are becoming further apart!!!

511

Danno wrote: »

What did man do in 1839 - the night of the big wind???

The last hurricane to hit Ireland was 1987, (30 yrs ago) before that was 1961 (26 yrs before that). If anything, these hurricanes are becoming further apart!!!

1987 wasn't a hurricane, it was an extraordinarily strong European windstorm/extratropical cyclone. You can read about tho difference between the two types of storms here: https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/blast-from-the-past-hurricane-debbie-1961/

In 1986 we were hit by the remnants of hurricane Charley, but that storm brought serious flood rather than wind.

netbeatz

I agree, I feel for alot of people it's a case of the boy who cried wolf.

The entire system could pass us but personally I can't see there being zero impacts at this stage...but then again these things can change on a moments notice

compsys wrote: »

I wouldn’t call it being smart arsed.

So many weather events get hyphed up beyond belief by the media nowadays (and in here it’s ten times worse with the snow “event” threads) that people have become a bit jaded about “warnings”.

The OTT decision last year to start naming every large depression that passed over the country was silly and hasn’t helped in my opinion. Storm Aileen anyone?

The entire system could yet pass us.

gozunda

My name is URL wrote: »

Because Limerick has a fairly small coastline in relation to the others?

Cork - 1118 km
Galway and Kerry - about 680 km

Limerick's coastline is 95 km

Co Limerick was left out of the Red Alert for Storm Darwin and was only updated to Red as the storm was in force. A mistake that Met Eireann later acknowledged.

The problem with east Limerick is that it is sandwiched between North Kerry and Clare. The coastline is very flat with low lying topography coupled with the Shannon estuary effectively facilitates an open area over which high winds are unimpeded.

East limerick also borders Co Cork and has a major mountain range which frequently experiences extreme South westerly winds. This area suffered extensive damage during the storm of 2014...

gozunda

511 wrote: »

1987 wasn't a hurricane, it was an extraordinarily strong European windstorm/extratropical cyclone. You can read about tho difference between the two types of storms here: https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/blast-from-the-past-hurricane-debbie-1961/

In 1986 we were hit by the remnants of hurricane Charley, but that storm brought serious flood rather than wind.

Talking of hurricane Charley
See The following archival footage ...

http://www.rte.ie/archives/2013/0826/470307-one-of-the-worst-hurricanes-in-living-memory/

Kermit.de.frog

This storm is far more powerful than either Debbie or Charley ever were. Debbie never made it past Cat 1 beyond the tropics.

This is Category 3 right now.

Whilst caution and sense are paramount people do need to be aware of what is coming as well. This is not Debbie. Right now, this is considerably worse.

spookwoman

Lightning showing up and eye is still well defined

pauldry

Some parts of Munster will see a lot of damage Id say.

jcd5971

I'm living in west clare right by coast working there too.

Is this thing being overated or is it actually something to be worried about?

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/jointcyclone/status/919301396423421953

A storm surge of 2 meters expected.

Kermit.de.frog

New advisory from National Hurricane Center

Ophelia remains a Category 3 hurricane with signs that it will soon begin extra tropical transition.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/150240.shtml

Kermit.de.frog

ICON 00z - Destructive for southwest

If close the country is in trouble.

Dank Janniels

Why wasnt there warnings like this on the news? The amount of people the past few days saying "musha tis only abitta wind!"

In reply to robertkks post

uck51js9zml2yt

jcd5971 wrote: »

I'm living in west clare right by coast working there too.

Is this thing being overated or is it actually something to be worried about?

You've obviously read none of the last few pages!!

spookwoman

latest IR from SAT24 seems to be getting bigger

Kermit.de.frog

GFS 00z

NASlad

How did the canaries/azores/madeira fare?

spookwoman

Getting Bigger? 2.40 and 4.35

gally74

Notice the h is now at ireland, track on galway

gally74

gally74 wrote: »

Notice the h is now at ireland, track on galway

Track

gally74

gally74 wrote: »

Track

spookwoman

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...35.9N 23.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...37.3N 21.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Nothing Changed

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). The wind field of Ophelia is forecast to expand
substantially and wind and rain effects in Ireland and the UK are
expected to reach the coast well before the arrival of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Size has increased

M.T. Cranium

All of the guidance so far seems to be holding at the earlier intensity, with minor changes. The consensus is for a grazing landfall from Galway Bay (possibly inland in Clare) to north central Mayo, but some guidance is 30-50 miles either side of that.

My view is that the level 3 or red warning should apply to Kerry, Cork, Clare, east half Galway, Limerick, south Tipps, Waterford, Kilkenny and Carlow. (Wexford, Laois, Kildare, Offaly, Roscommon could have some level 3 in most exposed locations).

Level 2 or orange should apply to all other counties although level 1 might be about it for a few places in northwest Mayo and east Ulster.

As it's Sunday I will probably issue my forecast a few minutes later than ECM but unless it has something very unexpected I will be continuing on with earlier themes.