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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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jcd5971

I'm living in west clare right by coast working there too.

Is this thing being overated or is it actually something to be worried about?

pauldry

Some parts of Munster will see a lot of damage Id say.

spookwoman

Lightning showing up and eye is still well defined

Kermit.de.frog

This storm is far more powerful than either Debbie or Charley ever were. Debbie never made it past Cat 1 beyond the tropics.

This is Category 3 right now.

Whilst caution and sense are paramount people do need to be aware of what is coming as well. This is not Debbie. Right now, this is considerably worse.

gozunda

511 wrote: »

1987 wasn't a hurricane, it was an extraordinarily strong European windstorm/extratropical cyclone. You can read about tho difference between the two types of storms here: https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/blast-from-the-past-hurricane-debbie-1961/

In 1986 we were hit by the remnants of hurricane Charley, but that storm brought serious flood rather than wind.

Talking of hurricane Charley
See The following archival footage ...

http://www.rte.ie/archives/2013/0826/470307-one-of-the-worst-hurricanes-in-living-memory/

gozunda

My name is URL wrote: »

Because Limerick has a fairly small coastline in relation to the others?

Cork - 1118 km
Galway and Kerry - about 680 km

Limerick's coastline is 95 km

Co Limerick was left out of the Red Alert for Storm Darwin and was only updated to Red as the storm was in force. A mistake that Met Eireann later acknowledged.

The problem with east Limerick is that it is sandwiched between North Kerry and Clare. The coastline is very flat with low lying topography coupled with the Shannon estuary effectively facilitates an open area over which high winds are unimpeded.

East limerick also borders Co Cork and has a major mountain range which frequently experiences extreme South westerly winds. This area suffered extensive damage during the storm of 2014...

netbeatz

I agree, I feel for alot of people it's a case of the boy who cried wolf.

The entire system could pass us but personally I can't see there being zero impacts at this stage...but then again these things can change on a moments notice

compsys wrote: »

I wouldn’t call it being smart arsed.

So many weather events get hyphed up beyond belief by the media nowadays (and in here it’s ten times worse with the snow “event” threads) that people have become a bit jaded about “warnings”.

The OTT decision last year to start naming every large depression that passed over the country was silly and hasn’t helped in my opinion. Storm Aileen anyone?

The entire system could yet pass us.

511

Danno wrote: »

What did man do in 1839 - the night of the big wind???

The last hurricane to hit Ireland was 1987, (30 yrs ago) before that was 1961 (26 yrs before that). If anything, these hurricanes are becoming further apart!!!

1987 wasn't a hurricane, it was an extraordinarily strong European windstorm/extratropical cyclone. You can read about tho difference between the two types of storms here: https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/blast-from-the-past-hurricane-debbie-1961/

In 1986 we were hit by the remnants of hurricane Charley, but that storm brought serious flood rather than wind.

Danno

pauldry wrote: »

Funny (not) to see a hurricane rolling up towards Ireland

This is what man has done to the atmosphere

What did man do in 1839 - the night of the big wind???

The last hurricane to hit Ireland was 1987, (30 yrs ago) before that was 1961 (26 yrs before that). If anything, these hurricanes are becoming further apart!!!

compsys

Grandeeod wrote: »

Social media is awash with complacency about this potential event. So much smart arse bravado going on.

I wouldn’t call it being smart arsed.

So many weather events get hyphed up beyond belief by the media nowadays (and in here it’s ten times worse with the snow “event” threads) that people have become a bit jaded about “warnings”.

The OTT decision last year to start naming every large depression that passed over the country was silly and hasn’t helped in my opinion. Storm Aileen anyone?

The entire system could yet pass us.

pauldry

Funny (not) to see a hurricane rolling up towards Ireland

This is what man has done to the atmosphere

Grandeeod

MJohnston wrote: »

This is not caused by Ophelia. Nothing wind-wise will be caused by Ophelia until early Monday morning. There will actually be a very calm spell late Sunday too, right before she hits.

I do worry that a lot of people will only have been consuming the news about Ophelia at a glance, will hear the blustery conditions tonight, think that was it all over, and get caught out on Monday.

Social media is awash with complacency about this potential event. So much smart arse bravado going on.

MJohnston

maiden wrote: »

Wind building in Ennis!

This is not caused by Ophelia. Nothing wind-wise will be caused by Ophelia until early Monday morning. There will actually be a very calm spell late Sunday too, right before she hits.

I do worry that a lot of people will only have been consuming the news about Ophelia at a glance, will hear the blustery conditions tonight, think that was it all over, and get caught out on Monday.

maiden

Wind building in Ennis!

Middle Man

You can track it here...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-11.00,46.16,1500

Danno

s.m wrote: »

Everyone keeps on about a hurricane hitting this country but there's never been any record of one affecting our lovely land. Though mind you the records do only go back to late 1961 after the original building holding the records mysteriously blew away.

On a more serious note how will Donegal fair in this situation ?

Classic!

:D:pac:

munsterlegend

squarecircles wrote: »

Anyone else feel like their in one of those bad disaster movies.Feels surreal.

Yeah! It's all very well looking at impressive charts which usually don't materialise. Now it's nearly upon us and there has not been any shift or downgrade.

Most people will survive fine but unfortunately some will be very unlucky.

M.T. Cranium

The 00z position appears to be 36.5 N 22.2 W still moving east-north-east but accelerating, and still showing a large circular eye 25-30 miles in diameter.

The 00z models start coming in after 0300h, the GFS usually gets to 48h around 0400h and the last to appear is ECM at 0700h, so there's a regular trickle of new maps after the GFS ... it won't be just me on here tonight (usually when I start my forecast and check the forum for anything new, it's 0 to 2 viewers, recently more like 25 to 50 even at 0-dark-hundred.

I am trying to avoid confirmation bias by not preferring any track, my one observation of note is that Ophelia was about 1 deg further from southeast Azores than 24h models had predicted (so is running right of the track) and that equates to about a Valentia to Cork spread along the track, but nothing to indicate this is a trend that will not fade away after the turn north-northeast expected later tonight.

As for ICON wind depictions, just a big wow icon there. Seems 20-40 km/hr overstated to me and ICON is hugging the right shoulder of the track highway at this point. The road is narrowing.

ANDREWMUFC

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is starting to gather a lot of attention internationally.

All the yanks are tweeting about it

squarecircles

Anyone else feel like theyre in one of those bad disaster movies.Feels surreal.

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Yes it could happen
There will be embedded thunderstorms and squal lines in this and all sorts of micro weather

Those squall lines can bring very violent gusts.

Rougies

slaneylad wrote: »

Apologies if this is a stupid question but is there any chance of tornado developing if the storm is severe.

It's possible.

http://www.estofex.org/

Forecast soundings show low LCLs and intense LL shear (30 m/s 0-1 km shear and SRH-1 in excess of 400 m^2/s^2) . This is enough for rotating updrafts with an isolated tornado risk.

Itssoeasy

I'm not sure me being off Monday is a good thing or a bad thing. If I can I'll post here about my situation from the northside of cork city due to being off.

I've said it to a few people and it's been a case of "erra that storm will miss us" which I've not corrected them on.

I know it won't be a hurricane but it's not a damp wet day either.

George Sunsnow

slaneylad wrote: »

Apologies if this is a stupid question but is there any chance of tornado developing if the storm is severe.

Yes it could happen
There will be embedded thunderstorms and squal lines in this and all sorts of micro weather

slaneylad

Apologies if this is a stupid question but is there any chance of tornado developing if the storm is severe.

fraxinus1

If the storm tracks east then Dublin needs to be included in the Red warning zone even if winds don't quite exceed 130km per hour in gusts. The amount of building work, people, traffic etc means increased liklihood of death and destruction compared to that caused by winds of same strength hitting the west.

My name is URL

James Bond Junior wrote: »

I can't understand how Cork, Kerry, and Clare are included yet not Limerick.

Because Limerick has a fairly small coastline in relation to the others?

Cork - 1118 km
Galway and Kerry - about 680 km

Limerick's coastline is 95 km

Straight Talker

The more i read this thread, the more and more im getting worried tbh.I think we could be in for a long day on Monday.Im just praying that the west coast might escape the worst of it.

munsterlegend

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

Any ideas of what these counties could be?

It depends on the track of the storm. If it goes East then Waterford/Wexford and up the Irish Sea coast very likely and prob Tipp or Kilkenny.

No one knows with any certainty but the next 24 hours will bring further clarity.

aidanodr

A history tweet with pics .. wasnt sure which thread to add it to. Other is about prep?

https://twitter.com/Muhammediceland/status/919352862597140480