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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Donegal Storm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

German, had thought in the past that it overestimated winds a bit, but when you look at the APERGE.

This is the storm I mentioned this morning that was just being shown as a run of the mill winter gale by every other model but as a severe event on the German DWD model and ended up as sustained hurricane force in Donegal. I recall MT flagged it and actually predicted the exact max windspeed which was 170kph at Malin Head. A big tree crashed down in my back garden that night and narrowly missed the house

It definitely looks like its overplaying things this time but I wouldn't totally discount it just yet

Larbre34

allthedoyles wrote: »

Here's hoping we in Wexford can escape the worst

You will likely escape the worst, but as the worst may be unprecedented, escaping it will still mean a fair bit of damage and a lot of disruption, severe by any standards.

munsterlegend

Donegal Storm wrote: »

This is the storm I mentioned this morning that was just being shown as a run of the mill winter gale by every other model but as a severe event on the German DWD model and ended up as sustained hurricane force in Donegal. I recall MT flagged it and actually predicted the exact max windspeed which was 170kph at Malin Head. A big tree crashed down in my back garden that night and narrowly missed the house

It definitely looks like its overplaying things this time but I wouldn't totally discount it just yet

What model do Met Eireann rely on usually in the hi res range?

pad199207

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

Is it likely the warning will be upgraded country wide, or are they pretty confident of its paths now, and likely to stay as an orange weather warning for rest of the country?

Deciding whether I send the kids to school or not in Co. Carlow.

I dunno. I’m watching the SE now as possible taking just as hard a hit or even harder then the west! Up through Leinster could be fairly dodgy too!

I’ve a feeling panic stations will be setting in tomorrow. Could MT be about to give his most alarming weather warning to date?

Stay tuned!

tomcosgrave

[font=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Met Eireann have STATUS ORANGE for Dublin.

Average wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between 110 and 130km/h are expected, however some inland areas may not be quite as severe. The winds have potential to cause structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.[/font]

Soccarboy11

Google does a pretty neat live wallpaper of the earth, it's called 'your world, solar system' for anybody interested.Tracks day/night, weather systems etc as if you were looking at earth from space! For instance I'm able to see where the hurricane is on it and it slowly moves every so often, pretty cool! See attached image

https://imgur.com/a/qMYmb

Meteorite58

What model do Met Eireann rely on usually in the hi res range?

The HIRLAM

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

pauldry

Gonna just look at sat24 mostly now.

Surely 80knot winds are possible now somewhere

If a station gets 77knot will we be saying

"150 page thread n only that?"

No.

I think Ireland is getting "damaged"

Think Sligo may be ok....ish.

Larbre34

chris2007 wrote: »

How bad will Dublin be effected?

Impossible to say how badly any place WILL be affected.

Risks are power loss - maybe for some days, widespread broken and downed trees as many are still mostly in leaf, structural damage to property such as slates, chimneys, hoardings, walls and fences destroyed, flooding both from heavy associated rain and storm surge in coastal areas due to onshore winds and / or super low pressure tidal conditions.

Basically, expect sporadic problems in Dublin.

server down

Looks to me like the red warning should include more eastern counties. Maybe not the north.

Donegal Storm

I think the met use HARMONIE as well which isn't publicly available, the Benelux version is on meteociel but doesn't cover us

munsterlegend

server down wrote: »

Looks to me like the red warning should include more eastern counties. Maybe not the north.

Other counties could go red tomorrow. Met Eireann have it under review and said as such in their forecast.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

munsterlegend wrote: »

Other counties could go red tomorrow. Met Eireann have it under review and said as such in their forecast.

Any ideas of what these counties could be?

James Bond Junior

munsterlegend wrote: »

Other counties could go red tomorrow. Met Eireann have it under review and said as such in their forecast.

I can't understand how Cork, Kerry, and Clare are included yet not Limerick.

squarecircles

Very wild night in Mayo currently
(Unrelated i know)

Gaoth Laidir

The threshold for a Red warning is either sustained winds above 80 km/h and/or gusts above 130 km/h.

aidanodr

A history tweet with pics .. wasnt sure which thread to add it to. Other is about prep?

https://twitter.com/Muhammediceland/status/919352862597140480

munsterlegend

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

Any ideas of what these counties could be?

It depends on the track of the storm. If it goes East then Waterford/Wexford and up the Irish Sea coast very likely and prob Tipp or Kilkenny.

No one knows with any certainty but the next 24 hours will bring further clarity.

Straight Talker

The more i read this thread, the more and more im getting worried tbh.I think we could be in for a long day on Monday.Im just praying that the west coast might escape the worst of it.

My name is URL

James Bond Junior wrote: »

I can't understand how Cork, Kerry, and Clare are included yet not Limerick.

Because Limerick has a fairly small coastline in relation to the others?

Cork - 1118 km
Galway and Kerry - about 680 km

Limerick's coastline is 95 km

fraxinus1

If the storm tracks east then Dublin needs to be included in the Red warning zone even if winds don't quite exceed 130km per hour in gusts. The amount of building work, people, traffic etc means increased liklihood of death and destruction compared to that caused by winds of same strength hitting the west.

slaneylad

Apologies if this is a stupid question but is there any chance of tornado developing if the storm is severe.

George Sunsnow

slaneylad wrote: »

Apologies if this is a stupid question but is there any chance of tornado developing if the storm is severe.

Yes it could happen
There will be embedded thunderstorms and squal lines in this and all sorts of micro weather

Itssoeasy

I'm not sure me being off Monday is a good thing or a bad thing. If I can I'll post here about my situation from the northside of cork city due to being off.

I've said it to a few people and it's been a case of "erra that storm will miss us" which I've not corrected them on.

I know it won't be a hurricane but it's not a damp wet day either.

Rougies

slaneylad wrote: »

Apologies if this is a stupid question but is there any chance of tornado developing if the storm is severe.

It's possible.

http://www.estofex.org/

Forecast soundings show low LCLs and intense LL shear (30 m/s 0-1 km shear and SRH-1 in excess of 400 m^2/s^2) . This is enough for rotating updrafts with an isolated tornado risk.

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Yes it could happen
There will be embedded thunderstorms and squal lines in this and all sorts of micro weather

Those squall lines can bring very violent gusts.

squarecircles

Anyone else feel like theyre in one of those bad disaster movies.Feels surreal.

ANDREWMUFC

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is starting to gather a lot of attention internationally.

All the yanks are tweeting about it

M.T. Cranium

The 00z position appears to be 36.5 N 22.2 W still moving east-north-east but accelerating, and still showing a large circular eye 25-30 miles in diameter.

The 00z models start coming in after 0300h, the GFS usually gets to 48h around 0400h and the last to appear is ECM at 0700h, so there's a regular trickle of new maps after the GFS ... it won't be just me on here tonight (usually when I start my forecast and check the forum for anything new, it's 0 to 2 viewers, recently more like 25 to 50 even at 0-dark-hundred.

I am trying to avoid confirmation bias by not preferring any track, my one observation of note is that Ophelia was about 1 deg further from southeast Azores than 24h models had predicted (so is running right of the track) and that equates to about a Valentia to Cork spread along the track, but nothing to indicate this is a trend that will not fade away after the turn north-northeast expected later tonight.

As for ICON wind depictions, just a big wow icon there. Seems 20-40 km/hr overstated to me and ICON is hugging the right shoulder of the track highway at this point. The road is narrowing.

munsterlegend

squarecircles wrote: »

Anyone else feel like their in one of those bad disaster movies.Feels surreal.

Yeah! It's all very well looking at impressive charts which usually don't materialise. Now it's nearly upon us and there has not been any shift or downgrade.

Most people will survive fine but unfortunately some will be very unlucky.