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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Gaoth Laidir

The threshold for a Red warning is either sustained winds above 80 km/h and/or gusts above 130 km/h.

squarecircles

Very wild night in Mayo currently
(Unrelated i know)

James Bond Junior

munsterlegend wrote: »

Other counties could go red tomorrow. Met Eireann have it under review and said as such in their forecast.

I can't understand how Cork, Kerry, and Clare are included yet not Limerick.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

munsterlegend wrote: »

Other counties could go red tomorrow. Met Eireann have it under review and said as such in their forecast.

Any ideas of what these counties could be?

munsterlegend

server down wrote: »

Looks to me like the red warning should include more eastern counties. Maybe not the north.

Other counties could go red tomorrow. Met Eireann have it under review and said as such in their forecast.

Donegal Storm

I think the met use HARMONIE as well which isn't publicly available, the Benelux version is on meteociel but doesn't cover us

server down

Looks to me like the red warning should include more eastern counties. Maybe not the north.

Larbre34

chris2007 wrote: »

How bad will Dublin be effected?

Impossible to say how badly any place WILL be affected.

Risks are power loss - maybe for some days, widespread broken and downed trees as many are still mostly in leaf, structural damage to property such as slates, chimneys, hoardings, walls and fences destroyed, flooding both from heavy associated rain and storm surge in coastal areas due to onshore winds and / or super low pressure tidal conditions.

Basically, expect sporadic problems in Dublin.

pauldry

Gonna just look at sat24 mostly now.

Surely 80knot winds are possible now somewhere

If a station gets 77knot will we be saying

"150 page thread n only that?"

No.

I think Ireland is getting "damaged"

Think Sligo may be ok....ish.

Meteorite58

What model do Met Eireann rely on usually in the hi res range?

The HIRLAM

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

Soccarboy11

Google does a pretty neat live wallpaper of the earth, it's called 'your world, solar system' for anybody interested.Tracks day/night, weather systems etc as if you were looking at earth from space! For instance I'm able to see where the hurricane is on it and it slowly moves every so often, pretty cool! See attached image

https://imgur.com/a/qMYmb

tomcosgrave

[font=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Met Eireann have STATUS ORANGE for Dublin.

Average wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between 110 and 130km/h are expected, however some inland areas may not be quite as severe. The winds have potential to cause structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.[/font]

pad199207

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

Is it likely the warning will be upgraded country wide, or are they pretty confident of its paths now, and likely to stay as an orange weather warning for rest of the country?

Deciding whether I send the kids to school or not in Co. Carlow.

I dunno. I’m watching the SE now as possible taking just as hard a hit or even harder then the west! Up through Leinster could be fairly dodgy too!

I’ve a feeling panic stations will be setting in tomorrow. Could MT be about to give his most alarming weather warning to date?

Stay tuned!

munsterlegend

Donegal Storm wrote: »

This is the storm I mentioned this morning that was just being shown as a run of the mill winter gale by every other model but as a severe event on the German DWD model and ended up as sustained hurricane force in Donegal. I recall MT flagged it and actually predicted the exact max windspeed which was 170kph at Malin Head. A big tree crashed down in my back garden that night and narrowly missed the house

It definitely looks like its overplaying things this time but I wouldn't totally discount it just yet

What model do Met Eireann rely on usually in the hi res range?

Larbre34

allthedoyles wrote: »

Here's hoping we in Wexford can escape the worst

You will likely escape the worst, but as the worst may be unprecedented, escaping it will still mean a fair bit of damage and a lot of disruption, severe by any standards.

Donegal Storm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

German, had thought in the past that it overestimated winds a bit, but when you look at the APERGE.

This is the storm I mentioned this morning that was just being shown as a run of the mill winter gale by every other model but as a severe event on the German DWD model and ended up as sustained hurricane force in Donegal. I recall MT flagged it and actually predicted the exact max windspeed which was 170kph at Malin Head. A big tree crashed down in my back garden that night and narrowly missed the house

It definitely looks like its overplaying things this time but I wouldn't totally discount it just yet

Meteorite58

Mod Note : Reminder that there is a chat thread re preparations / disruptions see below . Best keep this thread for more technical discussion.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2057797471

stevenup7002

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Icon 18Z

Gust

Hmm, that white spot is right over my house (Clonmel)

pad199207

allthedoyles wrote: »

Here's hoping we in Wexford can escape the worst

Might take a trip down to Kilmore Quay. Worried about my humble Mobile Home.

sword1

We haven't had a big blow in a few years so trees roots have been weakening etc are going to go.

allthedoyles

Here's hoping we in Wexford can escape the worst

Meteorite58

Where does this Icon model originate from?

German, had thought in the past that it overestimated winds a bit, but when you look at the APERGE.

[Deleted User]

Meteorite58 wrote: »

18Z ARPEGE rolling out at present and it aint pretty.

ARPEGE seems to like the more Westerly track. Heres the Euro 4. Similar placing of the centre when its near Kerry, but theres a divergence later in the timescale.

munsterlegend

pauldry wrote: »

Some of those charts would do extensive damage to Cork City.

Slates n Trees

And towns outside Cork City. This storm still has a good way to travel so despite the current models all is not certain.

MJohnston

munsterlegend wrote: »

Where does this Icon model originate from?

The Deutscher Wetterdienst

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Icon 18Z

Gust

Where does this Icon model originate from?

pauldry

Some of those charts would do extensive damage to Cork City.

Slates n Trees

Rikand

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Seems a bit further west

The ARPEGE has been favouring a westerly track from the outset

Meteorite58

Icon 18Z

Gust

Rikand

flaneur wrote: »

How does this compare to what we know of the 1839 “Night of the Big Wind” ?

We have much better warning systems in place, better constructed housing and the ability to be better prepared... So there's no real way to compare them at all imo