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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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spookwoman

western and southwest coasts still listed as red. Orange for the rest. Atl east they said that that could change as the hours pass. Met will give updated info tomorrow ref rain etc.

Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »

Could be wrong but something seems wrong here. According to a couple of sources the SE could get some of the worst Gust speeds circa 1600hrs Mon, yet Red warnings are only for 4 counties in the West?

I'd stay away from any east coast beaches, easy to get sideswiped by southerly running swells.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Teresa Mannion must be hopeing she'll get this big gig. I wouln'd like to be in her wellies come Monday morning.

Cantona's Collars

ThisRegard wrote: »

Look out your window. That's as useful as the neverending rolling news in the US in the lead up to the storms.

Theresa Mannion is in my garden.:eek:

At least the US channels give more than a minutes token coverage and advise people on how to prepare for bad weather.

Woodville56

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Complete disregard of the rest of the country with that story. Waterford Cork and Wexford staring a historical storm in the face and the counties weren't even mentioned.

In saying that I do suspect the story will get a lot more attention tomorrow after they have the emergency meeting they mentioned.

Mindful of Mod’s warning about keeping on topic but it’s always the same with RTE - unless it’s a Dublin event it gets relegated. I’m not a fan of local radio but when this storm kicks off it’s my local station I’ll be tuning in to for updates and information etc.

YFlyer

Strong winds coming our way. strong winds.

Cushtie

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

I posted this in the other thread but I think it should be here also,a caravan park in the UK in the aftermath of the 1987 storm.Ophelia looking stronger than that storm,I for one wouldn't like to be in one come Monday.

I have a mobile on a site on Dingle Penninsula. It survived Darwin in 2014. Not so sure this time......

sjb25

ThisRegard wrote: »

Look out your window. That's as useful as the neverending rolling news in the US in the lead up to the storms.

Yeah do we really need a reporter standing on the coast of Kerry somewhere telling us the same thing hour by hour

Oscar Bravo

she did a chart at the end of that forecast of Comparable events from Debbie in 1961 and Darwin in 2014. that surely will wake a few people up.

Bsal

'Something to look forward to on Monday'~ Joanna Donnelly 2017

4068ac1elhodqr

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The Met have handled this scenario quite well so far.
However excluding the likes of Waterford, Limerick from the red alert is quite appalling.
They need to review their alert this evening

Agree, either some sources are completely wrong or they're taking a 'defacto position' with Atlantic storms by focusing on the SW. But this isn't a regular event.

4pm looks like mayhem for the more densely populated Eastern areas on some recent charts.

The UK Met have only Yellow issued for the Irish Sea, looks a bit 'Fishy'.

Cannon_fodder

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Joanna on the weather now.... a tad nervous.... "those counties in the red alert could change in the next 24 hours".

Nervous, she is bloody woeful on delivery of what could be a seismic event. I do wonder what Met Eireann are at sometimes, the quality of delivery varies so much from presenter to presenter

squarecircles

"We've got something to look forward to"

nagdefy

Cushtie wrote: »

I have a mobile on a site on Dingle Penninsula. It survived Darwin in 2014. Not so sure this time......

We've got something to look forward on Monday says she, like Santa is coming!!

adox

Weather on RTE finished with the line " we have got something to look forward to on Monday" :eek:

pad199207

“ we have something to look forward to on Monday”

She’s obviously one of us

Donegal Storm

Excellent forecast just there, clear and concise and spelling out the dangers without any hysteria, will hopefully put to bed all the tiresome arguing here though I doubt it somehow

mickmackey1

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Darwin in 2014

Except there was no such storm, that name was invented by a few lads in the English tabloids.

squarecircles

mickmackey1 wrote: »

Except there was no such storm, that name was invented by a few lads in the English tabloids.

I wonder how she would have referred to it otherwise,i guess the names help.

jackboy

Cannon_fodder wrote: »

Nervous, she is bloody woeful on delivery of what could be a seismic event. I do wonder what Met Eireann are at sometimes, the quality of delivery varies so much from presenter to presenter

She is usually good but she has been nervous as hell all day. Not a good sign.

Harry Palmr

Cannon_fodder wrote: »

Nervous, she is bloody woeful on delivery of what could be a seismic event. I do wonder what Met Eireann are at sometimes, the quality of delivery varies so much from presenter to presenter

She's fine when she's written the script and learnt it fully but if it's breaking news so to speak then she's all over the shop.

The forecast itself felt inaccurate and vague in it's representation of the now likely track.

Hooter23

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Wow. I rarely watch the tv these days but she is not-the greatest weather presenter. She looks really nervous

She is a fairly new weather presenter so is probably nervous of messing up the most important forecast in years

Oscar Bravo

Cannon_fodder wrote: »

Nervous, she is bloody woeful on delivery of what could be a seismic event. I do wonder what Met Eireann are at sometimes, the quality of delivery varies so much from presenter to presenter

what a wally

Nairb70s

Wave heights of 10.2m predicted on south coast at 16:00 on Monday.

munster87

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

what a wally

Where?

squarecircles

Got a feeling now sadly that all the fun and games will be pushed more east,feel that Mayo will be downgraded to orange.some of those charts show very little impact in western coastal extremities of Mayo.

Disappointing if so,IV followed this religiously since Wednesday.something IV noticed over the years,whenever we do get severe wind events in Ireland it's usually the south and east that get slammed in the end.Normally a glancing blow in south Mayo before the storms deepen and hit Sligo and Donegal.

Harry Palmr

Bonzo Delaney wrote: »

Out of curiosity is there many tower cranes up around the South coast areas

There is one about 80 metres high at the Waterford University Hospital.

moneymad

Nairb70s wrote: »

Wave heights of 10.2m predicted on south coast at 16:00 on Monday.

I live in Cobh. Should be interesting.

sjb25

jackboy wrote: »

She is usually good but she has been nervous as hell all day. Not a good sign.

I don't watch the weather normaly and I'm no weather expert a lurker here and poster during the "fun" times

I got the impression she just is being careful what she says as the just don't have a clue what will happen the have an idea but that may change

Bonzo Delaney

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

They are mean speeds, so wily enough for a while. Love how the 'eye' looks to go right over my area, killing any potential for anything interesting. :mad:

marno21 wrote: »

I could see a few cranes up in Tralee today from the N21 bypass roundabout!!

There's a crane up on a hilltop between Ballydesmond and Castleisland for wind turbine installation - could be an interesting one

There's a thing what are the wind turbines in the country rated to withstand