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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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dacogawa

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RTE not even mentioning it in the news at 9 headlines.

They mentioned it 2nd, it was 1st on the 6pm

Harry Palmr

dacogawa wrote: »

They mentioned it 2nd, it was 1st on the 6pm

So they've downgraded the storm! :pac:

Should be first regardless of crappy party politics.

mirrorwall14

dacogawa wrote: »

They mentioned it 2nd, it was 1st on the 6pm

I can’t believe the Fianna Fáil conference came ahead? And that it is only referencing the red warning to the west, no mention of the orange warning for the rest of the country?

tylercollins

About 60 seconds on RTE News at 9 - madness.

Reati

Ten Pin wrote: »

To be fair it's a photo finish for which does most damage

Ah no, the storm isn't going to do as much lasting damage as those shower

Hooter23

Dont know why there saying the west...the south and east look worse affected than parts of the west on some of the latest charts...although everywhere is at risk i suppose with track still uncertain..

squarecircles

It's times like this i wish we had a well resourced national news service.

dacogawa

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So they've downgraded the storm! :pac:

Should be first regardless of crappy party politics.

I'm quite sure it will be back in No.1 spot for all the broadcasts tomorrow...

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

An update from the BBC weather website at 18.00 http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/41622053

TheMilkyPirate

Complete disregard of the rest of the country with that story. Waterford Cork and Wexford staring a historical storm in the face and the counties weren't even mentioned.

In saying that I do suspect the story will get a lot more attention tomorrow after they have the emergency meeting they mentioned.

Beechwoodspark

squarecircles wrote: »

It's times like this i wish we had a well resourced national news service.

There's probably loads of people who will wake up on Monday morning in "blissful ignorance" about what is bearing down on this island.

RTÉ need to up their game tomorrow otherwise I fear for the consequences.

Planet X

1101.
Current Active Viewers.
Nice

marno21

tylercollins wrote: »

About 60 seconds on RTE News at 9 - madness.

Hysteria is not the solution here. Anyone paying attention now will also be paying attention tomorrow when the situation becomes more clear. If there is uncertainty still there is no point in scaring people and causing unnecessary trouble.

Spanish Eyes

We will know a lot more from the charts tomorrow.

Still one would expect that the national broadcaster would at least warn of possible power cuts and for people to stock up on emergency supplies like torches and batteries and water.

It doesn't have to be an apocalyptic message, but forewarned is forearmed. Lots of people do not use SM or the internet, but they watch TV and listen to the radio.

Anyway, by the time the red warnings go out it will more than likely be 9pm on Sunday night. Great, all supermarkets open and everyone working hard in the Council offices sorting it all out at that time!

I suppose they are hoping it will veer West.

Cantona's Collars

I posted this in the other thread but I think it should be here also,a caravan park in the UK in the aftermath of the 1987 storm.Ophelia looking stronger than that storm,I for one wouldn't like to be in one come Monday.

ellieh1

Any idea when the alerts could be upgraded from Orange to Red for other counties??

mickger844posts

I'm shocked at the blase nature of coverage on the news. Possibly the worst storm to hit the country in living memory and we get a few charts and oh we will wait and see type attitude. A joke

www.waterfordweather.com

munsterlegend

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

We will know a lot more from the charts tomorrow.

Still one would expect that the national broadcaster would at least warn of possible power cuts and for people to stock up on emergency supplies like torches and batteries and water.

It doesn't have to be an apocalyptic message, but forewarned is forearmed. Lots of people do not use SM or the internet, but they watch TV and listen to the radio.

Anyway, by the time the red warnings go out it will more than likely be 9pm on Sunday night. Great, all supermarkets open and everyone working hard in the Council offices sorting it all out at that time!

I suppose they are hoping it will veer West.

There are red warnings out since 1pm today?

Cantona's Collars

mickger844posts wrote: »

I'm shocked at the blase nature of coverage on the news. Possibly the worst storm to hit the country in living memory and we get a few charts and oh we will wait and see type attitude. A joke

www.waterfordweather.com

Having looked at American news channels and their coverage of impending storms it puts our National Public Service:rolleyes: Broadcaster to shame.

4068ac1elhodqr

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Complete disregard of the rest of the country with that story. Waterford Cork and Wexford staring a historical storm in the face and the counties weren't even mentioned.

Could be wrong but something seems seriously amiss here. According to a couple of sources the SE could get some of the worst Gust speeds circa 1600hrs Mon, yet Red warnings are only for 4 counties in the West?

Screen_Shot_2017-10-14_at_21.21.55.png

YFlyer

tylercollins wrote: »

About 60 seconds on RTE News at 9 - madness.

A dead squid

davidglanza

cherryghost wrote: »

Cork city looks ****ed in that pic

ThisRegard

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Having looked at American news channels and their coverage of impending storms it puts our National Public Service:rolleyes: Broadcaster to shame.

Look out your window. That's as useful as the neverending rolling news in the US in the lead up to the storms.

JanuarySnowstor

The Met have handled this scenario quite well so far.
However excluding the likes of Waterford, Limerick from the red alert is quite appalling.
They need to review their alert this evening

spookwoman

Back in 2014 Storm Christine I remember Tramore prom had signs up saying road flooded, cliff rescue, etc were all out patrolling trying to keep people safe. There was a steady stream of people driving down the prom, some stalling after getting soaked and the poor rescue guys ended up pushing the cars out of the way.
Then the woman with the dog that got caught by the wave and got knocked over. When will people learn.

sunbabe08

davidglanza wrote: »

Cork city looks ****ed in that pic

fantastic, just fantastic

Oscar Bravo

Joanna on the weather now.... a tad nervous.... "those counties in the red alert could change in the next 24 hours".

Spanish Eyes

munsterlegend wrote: »

There are red warnings out since 1pm today?

Not on the RTE website, only a mention of school buses being cancelled :rolleyes:

Met Eireann feeds into RTE. Sorry I wasn't watching TV news there, so maybe they did mention the red alert.

[Deleted User]

davidglanza wrote: »

Cork city looks ****ed in that pic

Wahey

mirrorwall14

Wow. I rarely watch the tv these days but she is not-the greatest weather presenter. She looks really nervous