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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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ellieh1

Any idea when the alerts could be upgraded from Orange to Red for other counties??

Cantona's Collars

I posted this in the other thread but I think it should be here also,a caravan park in the UK in the aftermath of the 1987 storm.Ophelia looking stronger than that storm,I for one wouldn't like to be in one come Monday.

Spanish Eyes

We will know a lot more from the charts tomorrow.

Still one would expect that the national broadcaster would at least warn of possible power cuts and for people to stock up on emergency supplies like torches and batteries and water.

It doesn't have to be an apocalyptic message, but forewarned is forearmed. Lots of people do not use SM or the internet, but they watch TV and listen to the radio.

Anyway, by the time the red warnings go out it will more than likely be 9pm on Sunday night. Great, all supermarkets open and everyone working hard in the Council offices sorting it all out at that time!

I suppose they are hoping it will veer West.

marno21

tylercollins wrote: »

About 60 seconds on RTE News at 9 - madness.

Hysteria is not the solution here. Anyone paying attention now will also be paying attention tomorrow when the situation becomes more clear. If there is uncertainty still there is no point in scaring people and causing unnecessary trouble.

Planet X

1101.
Current Active Viewers.
Nice

Beechwoodspark

squarecircles wrote: »

It's times like this i wish we had a well resourced national news service.

There's probably loads of people who will wake up on Monday morning in "blissful ignorance" about what is bearing down on this island.

RTÉ need to up their game tomorrow otherwise I fear for the consequences.

TheMilkyPirate

Complete disregard of the rest of the country with that story. Waterford Cork and Wexford staring a historical storm in the face and the counties weren't even mentioned.

In saying that I do suspect the story will get a lot more attention tomorrow after they have the emergency meeting they mentioned.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

An update from the BBC weather website at 18.00 http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/41622053

dacogawa

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So they've downgraded the storm! :pac:

Should be first regardless of crappy party politics.

I'm quite sure it will be back in No.1 spot for all the broadcasts tomorrow...

squarecircles

It's times like this i wish we had a well resourced national news service.

Hooter23

Dont know why there saying the west...the south and east look worse affected than parts of the west on some of the latest charts...although everywhere is at risk i suppose with track still uncertain..

Reati

Ten Pin wrote: »

To be fair it's a photo finish for which does most damage

Ah no, the storm isn't going to do as much lasting damage as those shower

tylercollins

About 60 seconds on RTE News at 9 - madness.

mirrorwall14

dacogawa wrote: »

They mentioned it 2nd, it was 1st on the 6pm

I can’t believe the Fianna Fáil conference came ahead? And that it is only referencing the red warning to the west, no mention of the orange warning for the rest of the country?

Harry Palmr

dacogawa wrote: »

They mentioned it 2nd, it was 1st on the 6pm

So they've downgraded the storm! :pac:

Should be first regardless of crappy party politics.

dacogawa

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RTE not even mentioning it in the news at 9 headlines.

They mentioned it 2nd, it was 1st on the 6pm

mikeecho

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RTE not even mentioning it in the news at 9 headlines.

This could be the biggest natural disaster to hit this island in a long time.
People need to be preparing now, not waiting till it's too late.

Anyway, what will the temps be like?, over the coming days.
Will lack of heating be an issue?

Edit.. they're talking about it now.. 21.07hrs

Itssoeasy

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RTE not even mentioning it in the news at 9 headlines.

Why not ?

TheMilkyPirate

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RTE not even mentioning it in the news at 9 headlines.

Yes they did it was the second story after the Are Fheis

Harry Palmr

RTE not even mentioning it in the news at 9 headlines.

edit covering it now.

Kermit.de.frog

That may be the last light we see of the perfect structure which will begin to disintegrate and become more messy.

Nibs05

i swear its got more humid in the last hour (east meath)

munsterlegend

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

I’m concerned about the model runs showing the east in the firing line. Could someone more knowledgeable maybe discuss probabilities of those materializing? For midland and eastern areas not used to this type of weather some of those charts are very worrying

There has been a relatively small shift east which can have big implications for our island. Will be interesting to see what the morning models show.

Hastentoadd

It seems to cover a bigger area than the size of Ireland. Its absolutely enormous

mirrorwall14

I’m concerned about the model runs showing the east in the firing line. Could someone more knowledgeable maybe discuss probabilities of those materializing? For midland and eastern areas not used to this type of weather some of those charts are very worrying

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Mod Note : Off topic posts deleted .

Apologies will try to keep on topic.

thecretinhop

It ia starting to get very worrying.

[Deleted User]

7pm image.

Itssoeasy

The 9 o clock News will be interesting.

downwiththatsor

km79 wrote: »

Yeah was wondering the same
What model do they work off?

Ecmwf as far as i know