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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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MJohnston

server down wrote: »

Does that mean the south east is likely to bear the brunt?

That’s a chart of the current conditions of the storm, not anything predictive.

Oneiric 3

Latest WV image:

pjohnson

MJohnston wrote: »

That’s a chart of the current conditions of the storm, not anything predictive.

So whats the prediction?

pad199207

I think folks in Wexford and Waterford should be very vigilant!

Meteorite58

Latest 12Z ECM 850 hPa chart, Kts mean speeds

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

To be honest, “belly up” in this particular can really only describe an ‘upgrade’ (in the storm energy sense), and I think a lot of us would be happy for it not to get any worse than the current predictions.

Speak for yourself...

Gaoth Laidir

pjohnson wrote: »

So whats the prediction?

Have a read of the thread.

Gaoth Laidir

A post from the After Hours thread on Ophelia...

Allinall wrote: »

I'm getting two hatches installed in my house as I type this.

Just so I can batten them down.

Bsal

UK met office surface winds for 12z Monday in knots.

darragh o meara

In comparison to Storm Darwin a few years back, how is this gonna compare? I live in South Tipp but will be in North Kildare while this is passing over, Im worried about the family as it was pretty bad down this way during Darwin.

spookwoman

pad199207 wrote: »

I think folks in Wexford and Waterford should be very vigilant!

BorneTobyWilde

That model keeps it at hurricane Cat 3 .

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest 12Z ECM 850 hPa chart, Kts mean speeds

That looks further east to me as in affecting areas like Wexford and Waterford as much as cork/Kerry.

mickmackey1

Bsal wrote: »

UK met office surface winds for 12z Monday

So a moderately windy day across most of the country... jaysus :rolleyes:

Gaoth Laidir

SSMIS 85 GHz scan (left) and 37 GHz (right) from 1735Z, both showing a bit of erosion getting into the western side of the storm, probably due to increasing shear or drier air. The 37 GHz shows the low level structure of cloud and rain as red, while the 85 GHz shows the upper level structure. Shear is set to increase tonight so I think we have seen the last of the nice sexy visible images of Ophelia as such a symmetric hurricane.

20171014.1735.f16.x.composite.17LOPHELIA.100kts-960mb-342N-277W.82pc.jpg

20171014.1735.f16.x.composite.17LOPHELIA.100kts-960mb-342N-277W.82pc.jpg

munsterlegend

mickmackey1 wrote: »

So a moderately windy day across most of the country... jaysus :rolleyes:

Yeah even met eireann throw out red warnings like confetti..

Oneiric 3

mickmackey1 wrote: »

So a moderately windy day across most of the country... jaysus :rolleyes:

They are mean speeds, so wily enough for a while. Love how the 'eye' looks to go right over my area, killing any potential for anything interesting. :mad:

Meteorite58

The latest ECM .

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Kensley Deep Children wrote: »

I really think you need Gerry or Evelyn for a situation like this. Joanna just doesn't bring the same gravitas.

I must say I like way Joanna presents the weather forecast because she goes in to great details sometimes to explain the charts for many viewers who wouldn't be weather savy like most of on here. Thank God It's It's not Evelyn Cusack who's was only brought in for eye candy. Having said that Joanna did look like a rabbit caught in the headlights.

Calina

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The latest ECM .

The brings the more severe gusts further inland in Cork than I kind of expected. A bit more concerned about the home folks now.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Keep it on topic guys, note the Forum charter 1. Please refrain from direct personal attacks on any person whether they are members of boards.ie or not.

Oneiric 3

Can we quit the references about how our beloved weather ladies look? totally irrelevant.

r93kaey5p2izun

Agustin Limited Hatchet wrote: »

I must say I like way Joanna presents the weather forecast because she goes in to great details sometimes to explain the charts for many viewers who wouldn't be weather savy like most of on here. Thank God It's It's not Evelyn Cusack who's was only brought in for eye candy. Having said that Joanna did look like a rabbit caught in the headlights.

Evelyn as eye candy??

I personally find Evelyn best for explaining charts. I wouldn't consider myself particularly knowledgeable about weather and I got very little from Joanna's forecast today. I always feel I've learned something from Evelyn.

MJohnston

Bsal wrote: »

UK met office surface winds for 12z Monday

Please include the units if you’re including an image out of context!

uck51js9zml2yt

dusty207 wrote: »

Haha, not a sign of anything stirring so far!

That's what you get for not letting them build a higher wall in favour of a nice view

George Sunsnow

Big news item on bbc news 24 just now about the impacts of the storm on the Republic of Ireland
They had Matt Taylor on as a guest explaining Met Éireann’s red alert
He said it was going to be quite severe and damaging in the southwest of the Republic of Ireland but also 80mph gusts on Irish Sea coasts

It’s getting Real folks

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919280338840547330

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/919279362888921089

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919281579322695680

Soccarboy11

All the models look like Cork City and County as a whole are going to get a hammering. Suppose it will be a test for Bandons new flood relief works, which are somewhat finished but not really. Water could flow up the river lee into the city aswell, which is something which could cause havoc if the storm surge is big enough. Shame the flood prevention works never got started because of some rejectors..

Cantona's Collars

More 4 now with Britain's Killer Storms makes interesting viewing considering what's on the way.

Copper_pipe

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

All the models look like Cork City and County as a whole are going to get a hammering. Suppose it will be a test for Bandons new flood relief works, which are somewhat finished but not really. Water could flow up the river lee into the city aswell, which is something which could cause havoc if the storm surge is big enough. Shame the flood prevention works never got started because of some rejectors..

So Mallow could get flooded again?