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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Spanish Eyes

antodeco wrote: »

Very windy the last while here in Dublin. I put stuff out on the line earlier and it wasn't too bad. Last half hour it has them flying horizontal!

Glad it's not just me.

See my post #1144 above.

Oh me nerves! :eek:

Romantic Rose

irish1967 wrote: »

Monday morning will be fine. Peak winds won’t be effecting us here in Donegal Town area until Monday evening given current timings.

Thank you Irish1967, my old friend

What time is it due to hit Donegal on Monday? I'm hoping to get back home mid afternoon.

antodeco

Very windy the last while here in Dublin. I put stuff out on the line earlier and it wasn't too bad. Last half hour it has them flying horizontal!

M.T. Cranium

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Does this suggest winds are now looking stronger on the east coast than on the west?

On that model yes, but it is running east of consensus so generally not the trend of all guidance (yet).

_Whimsical_

cherryghost wrote: »

Does this suggest winds are now looking stronger on the east coast than on the west?

sdanseo

Met.ie - This is a bit fishy. It was about 12.45 when they first posted this, and there was outcry on here that the 1pm news had nothing of it.

They've since updated the issue time but the warning itself hasn't changed.

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions . Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:Saturday 14 October 2017 13:18
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

Cantona's Collars

jArgHA wrote: »

Six One News on RTÉ leading with the story. Good to see it's being treated seriously finally.

Most of the focus was on cancelled school buses.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Update now on RTE News.

jArgHA

Six One News on RTÉ leading with the story. Good to see it's being treated seriously finally.

sdanseo

Top headline on the Six One.

Finally some proper broadcast acknowledgement.

Pangea

Just seen BBC weather it said it was a Cat 2, it's apparent that the TV weather forecasts are relying on old data, social media is where it's at.

cherryghost

mel.b

Thanks to MTC and others who answered my question about why Ophelia is headed east and not west

I'm just back from a walk in Dromore Woods in Co.Clare which sustained a lot of damage in Storm Darwin and sadly I think will sustain more damage on Monday. This is one tree that fell - the shallow root system for a tree that size amazes me, but after less the 3yrs, the rest of the downed tree is almost invisible.

Spanish Eyes

I don't know if it's connected or not, but the wind here has just whipped up a great deal.

I'm looking out the back at the trees in the park and they are heaving and swaying.

But I'm probably on high alert now!

I need to calm down.

M.T. Cranium

I will update this from time to time, predicted maximum sustained winds and gusts at selected locations based on model output to date and my own subjective impressions of how the storm will play out. All values in knots, km/hr is double minus 10%.

LOCATION ________ Max sustained _____ Gusts

Valentia ______________ 60 ___________ 85

Sherkin ______________ 68 ___________ 90

Roches Point __________ 66 ___________ 87

Kinsale energy _________ 80 __________ 105

Waterford _____________ 62 ___________ 87

Cork _________________ 62 ___________ 87

Shannon ______________ 58 ___________ 80

Oak Park ______________ 50 __________ 70

Gurteen _______________ 52 __________ 73

Mullingar ______________ 52 __________ 73

Casement ______________58 __________ 78

Dublin A _______________ 56 __________ 73

Dunsany _______________ 50 __________ 70

Athenry ________________ 60 __________ 80

Galway city _____________ 62 __________ 82

Mace Head ______________ 70 __________ 90

Newport ________________ 65 __________ 83

Belmullet ________________ 50 _________ 70

Claremorris ______________ 52 _________ 72

Finner ___________________ 58 _________ 78

Donegal A ________________ 58 _________ 78

Malin Head _______________ 65 __________ 85

Ballyhaise ________________ 55 __________ 75

These weather stations give a good representation of conditions that various regions will face but of course there are big variations in exposure from one place to another and airports tend to be located in exposed locations generally so quite often the overall exposure of the population is less than might be implied by assuming these winds will affect everyone in each region.

OTOH if you're a lighthouse keeper or a farmer on a hill, you might get stronger winds than any of these (except Kinsale energy).

I have assumed a GFS-GEM blend track something like 50 miles west of Valentia to landfall between Clifden and Westport, placing Belmullet on the west side of the track but all other locations to the east. If ICON is correct some of my estimates in the northwest will be reduced considerably.

To save space on the thread, if responding don't copy the whole table, just comment on it. Thanks. I will update this at least once before the storm arrives.

Video

Fully expect someone from met eireann on the six one news, they kind of have to at this stage.

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

15Z wind analysis, showing 89 knots 38 NM east of centre. The 64+ knot radius has further expanded to 80 NM to the southeast.

Why is it that these analyses seem to be consistently less intense than the NHC's definition of maximum winds? Is it measured a different way or are they using different models?

stevenup7002

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-ophelia-track-path-latest-updates-uk-ireland/

*rings*

"Hi, hello, can you help me? I think I have woken up in a universe I don't recognise"

American headlines: CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BARRELING TOWARDS IRELAND
Irish headlines: Some buses might be canceled on Monday

Itssoeasy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-ophelia-track-path-latest-updates-uk-ireland/

*rings*

"Hi, hello, can you help me? I think I have woken up in a universe I don't recognise"

Well there you go lads. NBC and now CBS fecking news have used the words Hurricane and Ireland in the same sentence and it's not the 1st of April. This whole thing feels strange to me, but for the knowledgeable posters here this must be mental altogether.

Gaoth Laidir

15Z wind analysis, showing 89 knots 38 NM east of centre. The 64+ knot radius has further expanded to 80 NM to the southeast.

Cloudio9

I'm assuming that's the eye of the storm you see along the west coast on the gust charts above. So will people along the west coast experience a short period of calm as the eye passes over them before it kicks off again?

Itssoeasy

sdanseo wrote: »

There was confusion over a chart that showed windspeed in knots but with a colour chart in km/h, leading a few of us to believe we were looking at ~280km/h gusts. Not the case.

Thanks. I was looking at the word evacuations and saying had I missed a big warning.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-ophelia-track-path-latest-updates-uk-ireland/

*rings*

"Hi, hello, can you help me? I think I have woken up in a universe I don't recognise"

sdanseo

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Why exactly would there need to be evacuation plans ? I've not read the whole thread but have I missed something ?

There was confusion over a chart that showed windspeed in knots but with a colour chart in km/h, leading a few of us to believe we were looking at ~280km/h gusts. Not the case.

Itssoeasy

clawback07 wrote: »

I thought bus Eireann would only cancel school busses in the event of Met Eireann issuing a Status red warning . Having just checked Met Eireann fore cast they have not issued a red warning for Monday yet , or have I missed something ?

Met Eireann have issued a red warning

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

Itssoeasy

Jobs OXO wrote: »

Are there evacuation plans if required? The East seems likely to escape most of it

Why exactly would there need to be evacuation plans ? I've not read the whole thread but have I missed something ?

Rougies

stevenup7002 wrote: »

But it says "noeuds" (knots)?

The barbules(wind barbs) are in knots, the colours show km/h.

Drumpot

If it’s a Category 3 now, how are people certain it will be so much weaker by the time it might hit Ireland? Don’t these sort of fronts usually strengthen in sea? Or is it more related to the heat/energy they get depending on the conditions?

I know it’s an odd event for seasoned weather followers but I’m not sure I understand if this is going to be a really bad event or just a windy day that’s because of unusual conditions?!

clawback07

philstar wrote: »

much to the disappointment of the drivers & pupils i bet

I thought bus Eireann would only cancel school busses in the event of Met Eireann issuing a Status red warning . Having just checked Met Eireann fore cast they have not issued a red warning for Monday yet , or have I missed something ?

pjohnson

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

As MT said, not much has changed in the forecast for Monday. People talking about evacuating the southwest need to calm down. A Cat 3 will not hit us.

At the risk of repeating myself again, the current 100-knot intensity given by the NHC would equate to around 90 knots if this were a typical winter storm because of the difference between the windspeed classifications (1-minute Vs 10-minute). Knock around 11% off the NHC speeds to get the Beaufort speed. Now take that forward to Monday. 30-40 knots of weakening is very possible in the next 48 hours which would take it from its current 90 knots down to a more "survivable" 50-60 knots sustained winds, with of course higher gusts.

Certainly a very notable and interesting event but please let's not lose the run of ourselves here. There is no need for evacuations.

You seem very bloody knowledgeable so I'll stop being worried. That red warning thing was kinda scary.