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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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gozunda

Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »

Since around 12noon, but the MetOffice in the UK only have Yellow (low) warning for wind.
Would not like to be landing a plane around 4-5pm at DUB.

Looking at the current track of storm - it looks like many parts of the UK may not be directly impacted. Have to laugh at some of the UK media headlines - it would appear that Ireland doesn't exist lol

eg
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/hurricane-ophelia-uk-weather-latest-100mph-winds-threatening-travel-disruption-power-cuts-a8000136.html

Crea

shmaupel wrote: »

Guess the Limerick kids are just gonna have to battle on

We're hardy. Don't worry about us.

sdanseo

NHC Hurricane-Force (64kt) sustained probabilities. Yellow is 30-40% Orange is 40-50%.

Titain

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts

I won't laugh, I'm in the sw. Good question. I'm expecting power outages at the least.

whippet

What is the estimated time of land fall or when winds of any significance will occur.

Just wondering about the potential for chaos as people will have gone to work on their usual commute and then find it near impossible to get home with fallen trees, cancelled busses and trains etc?

I reckon i’ll work from home Monday regardless .. I’m fortunate to have the option !

Kermit.de.frog

sdanseo wrote: »

NHC Hurricane-Force (64kt) sustained probabilities. Yellow is 30-40% Orange is 40-50%.

These probabilities will increase over next few advisories.

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

It doesnt, there are 3 charts and that was the 50kt one.

Apologies, I read the wrong chart.

TheMilkyPirate

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts

More of a stay indoors situation to be fair. An evacuation would be extreme to say the least

Kermit.de.frog

Latest GFS predicted gusts

45-289UK.GIF?14-12

Samaris

whippet wrote: »

What is the estimated time of land fall or when winds of any significance will occur.

Just wondering about the potential for chaos as people will have gone to work on their usual commute and then find it near impossible to get home with fallen trees, cancelled busses and trains etc?

I reckon i’ll work from home Monday regardless .. I’m fortunate to have the option !

Latest indications I saw suggest that it will be impacting by around lunchtime Monday and going through to Tuesday, but there was a sudden five-hour change and I'm not sure if that's taking that into account or not.

I was thinking much the same about people commuting Monday morning and then being stuck. A lot of my workmates have to travel out from the city right into Connemara (and more to the point, back in again on that evening). Wouldn't be that surprised if people are sent home early on Monday.

Mind you, won't be that surprised if my workplace is inoperational on Tuesday. The gas tanks out the side are a bit worrying.

SweetCaliber

Anyone know if Tramore, Co. Waterford will be hit hard?

We are status orange at the moment but being coastal gives that bit of worry.

Magic Seaweed have up that we could expect 28ft swells, and surfers around the town said they could reach 50ft.

M.T. Cranium

ICON brings hurricane force gusts onto most of the south coast around 0900h to early afternoon, and in fact would predict conditions at Kinsale energy platform of 80 knots gusting to 110 knots which would prompt concerns about its safety.

This would imply very severe damage along the south coast and considerable impacts up the east coast. The west coast is not totally spared either, but on this ICON track as I had outlined previously winds would only be moderate in Mayo and Donegal, even parts of west Galway and north Sligo. Winds would be severe up the west coast from Valentia to Galway however.

I expect this to be an eastern outlier among 12z output somehow, so take these comments simply as "what if ICON verifies" not a new forecast.

mickmackey1

Just realised that Monday is the 30th anniversary of the Great Storm of '87... that's a bit spooky.

M.T. Cranium

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts

Absolutely right either way, I agree with you, if ICON verified there would be massive waves battering the shore, big surges and roof-lifting winds, damage to infrastructure etc. Let's see what the whole 12z picture is but any trend towards that track would certainly mean the brunt of the storm felt in Cork and Waterford.

TheMilkyPirate

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Anyone know if Tramore, Co. Waterford will be hit hard?

We are status orange at the moment but being coastal gives that bit of worry.

Magic Seaweed have up that we could expect 28ft swells, and surfers around the town said they could reach 50ft.

On current guidance, Yes most definitely.

Samaris

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Anyone know if Tramore, Co. Waterford will be hit hard?

We are status orange at the moment but being coastal gives that bit of worry.

Magic Seaweed have up that we could expect 28ft swells, and surfers around the town said they could reach 50ft.

Been a bit focussed on there too - my home town. The bay opens right out into the direction of the storm, so I hope the prom is closed off - you know yourself what eejits are like for going and standing on it during storms. And I'd be a bit dubious of the amusement park as well, given its exposed position (and poor upkeep, at least when I lived there). I'd expect if there's damage it'll be places like The Atlantic, Majestic, Splashworld & whatever Celtworld/Storm is now and the apartments around there, plus Newtown and the part that dips down to the little pier near the Magic Well.

Most of the town is well raised up anyway, so flooding is unlikely to be an issue. Not much protection from the wind though.

peasant

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Latest GFS predicted gusts

Hang on a sec ...

Is that 100 kt (185 km/h) gusts over Tipp/Limerick/Galway ? :eek:

sdanseo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

These probabilities will increase over next few advisories.

Exactly.

gozunda

dashoonage wrote: »

ill never understand that...any time there is a warning for that side of the island limerick is always left out :P

County Limerick was left out of the Top level Storm Darwin warning as well. It was only later included as the storm was active ...

philstar

but it doesn't seem to be moving? its in the same position as this morning

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=42.0;-20.3;3&l=wind

nagdefy

peasant wrote: »

Hang on a sec ...

Is that 100 kt (185 km/h) gusts over Tipp/Limerick/Galway ? :eek:

No km per hr. Thankfully

stevenup7002

nagdefy wrote: »

No km per hr. Thankfully

But it says "noeuds" (knots)?

nagdefy

stevenup7002 wrote: »

But it says "noeuds" (knots)?

Jaysus it does.. Apologies :eek:

sdanseo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Latest GFS predicted gusts

Those are 150+ KNOT gusts in purple.
277 km/h.
That is as JanuarySnowstorm said, evacuation level event if it comes off.

Edit: See later in the thread where it has been clarified that speeds are km/h not knots on the colour scale. Please heed the advice of more knowledgeable posters also. It's unlikely to be quite as bad as the above comment would indicate.

SweetCaliber

Samaris wrote: »

Been a bit focussed on there too - my home town. The bay opens right out into the direction of the storm, so I hope the prom is closed off - you know yourself what eejits are like for going and standing on it during storms. And I'd be a bit dubious of the amusement park as well, given its exposed position (and poor upkeep, at least when I lived there). I'd expect if there's damage it'll be places like The Atlantic, Majestic, Splashworld & whatever Celtworld/Storm is now and the apartments around there, plus Newtown and the part that dips down to the little pier near the Magic Well.

Most of the town is well raised up anyway, so flooding is unlikely to be an issue. Not much protection from the wind though.

Yeah, celtworld is long gone and the amusement park is essentially loads of railings now as all have packed up and gone for the winter.

I ask mainly because of where I live, the end of somerville, I can see the sea from my house and the back strand is directly across from my house and the tides get quite high at times.

Gaoth Laidir

As MT said, not much has changed in the forecast for Monday. People talking about evacuating the southwest need to calm down. A Cat 3 will not hit us.

At the risk of repeating myself again, the current 100-knot intensity given by the NHC would equate to around 90 knots if this were a typical winter storm because of the difference between the windspeed classifications (1-minute Vs 10-minute). Knock around 11% off the NHC speeds to get the Beaufort speed. Now take that forward to Monday. 30-40 knots of weakening is very possible in the next 48 hours which would take it from its current 90 knots down to a more "survivable" 50-60 knots sustained winds, with of course higher gusts.

Certainly a very notable and interesting event but please let's not lose the run of ourselves here. There is no need for evacuations.

nagdefy

sdanseo wrote: »

Those are 150+ KNOT gusts in purple.
277 km/h.
That is as JanuarySnowstorm said, evacuation level event if it comes off.

Holy Christ.. that's scary..really scary..

nagdefy

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

As MT said, not much has changed in the forecast for Monday. People talking about evacuating the southwest need to calm down. A Cat 3 will hit us.

At the risk of repeating myself again, the current 100-knot intensity given by the NHC would equate to around 90 knots if this were a typical winter storm because of the difference between the windspeed classifications (1-minute Vs 10-minute). Knock around 11% off the NHC speeds to get the Beaufort speed. Now take that forward to Monday. 30-40 knots of weakening is very possible in the next 48 hours which would take it from its current 90 knots down to a more "survivable" 50-60 knots sustained winds, with of course higher gusts.

Certainly a very notable and interesting event but please let's not lose the run of ourselves here. There is no need for evacuations.

Hurricane Debbie potential do you think Gaoth Laidir?

Gaoth Laidir

nagdefy wrote: »

Hurricane Debbie potential do you think Gaoth Laidir?

It will be travelling slightly slower than Debbie so I would not imagine we will see any worse winds than then.

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

As MT said, not much has changed in the forecast for Monday. People talking about evacuating the southwest need to calm down. A Cat 3 will not hit us.

At the risk of repeating myself again, the current 100-knot intensity given by the NHC would equate to around 90 knots if this were a typical winter storm because of the difference between the windspeed classifications (1-minute Vs 10-minute). Knock around 11% off the NHC speeds to get the Beaufort speed. Now take that forward to Monday. 30-40 knots of weakening is very possible in the next 48 hours which would take it from its current 90 knots down to a more "survivable" 50-60 knots sustained winds, with of course higher gusts.

Certainly a very notable and interesting event but please let's not lose the run of ourselves here. There is no need for evacuations.

sdanseo wrote: »

Those are 150+ KNOT gusts in purple.
277 km/h.
That is as JanuarySnowstorm said, evacuation level event if it comes off.

nagdefy wrote: »

Holy Christ.. that's scary..really scary..

Just a caveat on my own post here..GL and MT are infinitely more knowledgeable than I. Apologies for being any way sensational, as it is just one model and the winds are offshore. Doesn't mean I'm not still worried.