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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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TheMilkyPirate

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Anyone know if Tramore, Co. Waterford will be hit hard?

We are status orange at the moment but being coastal gives that bit of worry.

Magic Seaweed have up that we could expect 28ft swells, and surfers around the town said they could reach 50ft.

On current guidance, Yes most definitely.

Samaris

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Anyone know if Tramore, Co. Waterford will be hit hard?

We are status orange at the moment but being coastal gives that bit of worry.

Magic Seaweed have up that we could expect 28ft swells, and surfers around the town said they could reach 50ft.

Been a bit focussed on there too - my home town. The bay opens right out into the direction of the storm, so I hope the prom is closed off - you know yourself what eejits are like for going and standing on it during storms. And I'd be a bit dubious of the amusement park as well, given its exposed position (and poor upkeep, at least when I lived there). I'd expect if there's damage it'll be places like The Atlantic, Majestic, Splashworld & whatever Celtworld/Storm is now and the apartments around there, plus Newtown and the part that dips down to the little pier near the Magic Well.

Most of the town is well raised up anyway, so flooding is unlikely to be an issue. Not much protection from the wind though.

M.T. Cranium

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts

Absolutely right either way, I agree with you, if ICON verified there would be massive waves battering the shore, big surges and roof-lifting winds, damage to infrastructure etc. Let's see what the whole 12z picture is but any trend towards that track would certainly mean the brunt of the storm felt in Cork and Waterford.

mickmackey1

Just realised that Monday is the 30th anniversary of the Great Storm of '87... that's a bit spooky.

M.T. Cranium

ICON brings hurricane force gusts onto most of the south coast around 0900h to early afternoon, and in fact would predict conditions at Kinsale energy platform of 80 knots gusting to 110 knots which would prompt concerns about its safety.

This would imply very severe damage along the south coast and considerable impacts up the east coast. The west coast is not totally spared either, but on this ICON track as I had outlined previously winds would only be moderate in Mayo and Donegal, even parts of west Galway and north Sligo. Winds would be severe up the west coast from Valentia to Galway however.

I expect this to be an eastern outlier among 12z output somehow, so take these comments simply as "what if ICON verifies" not a new forecast.

SweetCaliber

Anyone know if Tramore, Co. Waterford will be hit hard?

We are status orange at the moment but being coastal gives that bit of worry.

Magic Seaweed have up that we could expect 28ft swells, and surfers around the town said they could reach 50ft.

Samaris

whippet wrote: »

What is the estimated time of land fall or when winds of any significance will occur.

Just wondering about the potential for chaos as people will have gone to work on their usual commute and then find it near impossible to get home with fallen trees, cancelled busses and trains etc?

I reckon i’ll work from home Monday regardless .. I’m fortunate to have the option !

Latest indications I saw suggest that it will be impacting by around lunchtime Monday and going through to Tuesday, but there was a sudden five-hour change and I'm not sure if that's taking that into account or not.

I was thinking much the same about people commuting Monday morning and then being stuck. A lot of my workmates have to travel out from the city right into Connemara (and more to the point, back in again on that evening). Wouldn't be that surprised if people are sent home early on Monday.

Mind you, won't be that surprised if my workplace is inoperational on Tuesday. The gas tanks out the side are a bit worrying.

Kermit.de.frog

Latest GFS predicted gusts

45-289UK.GIF?14-12

TheMilkyPirate

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts

More of a stay indoors situation to be fair. An evacuation would be extreme to say the least

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

It doesnt, there are 3 charts and that was the 50kt one.

Apologies, I read the wrong chart.

Kermit.de.frog

sdanseo wrote: »

NHC Hurricane-Force (64kt) sustained probabilities. Yellow is 30-40% Orange is 40-50%.

These probabilities will increase over next few advisories.

whippet

What is the estimated time of land fall or when winds of any significance will occur.

Just wondering about the potential for chaos as people will have gone to work on their usual commute and then find it near impossible to get home with fallen trees, cancelled busses and trains etc?

I reckon i’ll work from home Monday regardless .. I’m fortunate to have the option !

Titain

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts

I won't laugh, I'm in the sw. Good question. I'm expecting power outages at the least.

sdanseo

NHC Hurricane-Force (64kt) sustained probabilities. Yellow is 30-40% Orange is 40-50%.

Crea

shmaupel wrote: »

Guess the Limerick kids are just gonna have to battle on

We're hardy. Don't worry about us.

gozunda

Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »

Since around 12noon, but the MetOffice in the UK only have Yellow (low) warning for wind.
Would not like to be landing a plane around 4-5pm at DUB.

Looking at the current track of storm - it looks like many parts of the UK may not be directly impacted. Have to laugh at some of the UK media headlines - it would appear that Ireland doesn't exist lol

eg
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/hurricane-ophelia-uk-weather-latest-100mph-winds-threatening-travel-disruption-power-cuts-a8000136.html

JanuarySnowstor

You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts

M.T. Cranium

This cat-3 development means very little to the forecast model performance since it was expected to be a strong cat-2 anyway and the extratropical storm depictions on most models have been near theoretical peak intensity anyway (referring to positions south of Ireland).

This is really just one more cherry in a cherry pie situation, it has no direct implication on the outcome, that is mostly going to be a matter of the dynamics of the upper low forming in the trough by late Sunday and into Monday. Ex-Ophelia will rapidly phase with this upper low, and the dynamics will determine the details but I can't see much variation from what most on here have concluded, level 3 conditions for southwest and some west coast areas, possibly extending some distance into the south-central inland counties.

ME have their warnings out but I think it might be possible to see Limerick, Waterford, and even Carlow, Kilkenny and Tipps (south) added to red status.

As always the boundary between levels will not neatly coincide with county boundaries anyway, if I lived in a well-exposed area of any county I would assume the risk of level 3.

PLL

Kermit.de.frog

First of the 12z models

ICON

star gazer

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919224875000238080
Plenty of cloud on the forecast track.

ellieh1

Can't understand why Co. Limerick isn't covered under the Red warning. I presume that could change before Monday????

RobbingBandit

Seen some info saying the winds would track quite badly to the east of the storm path so will exposed areas of Dublin be hit bad by the winds and what's the likely hood of thunder storms?

dashoonage

shmaupel wrote: »

Guess the Limerick kids are just gonna have to battle on

ill never understand that...any time there is a warning for that side of the island limerick is always left out :P

TheMilkyPirate

TBH I think that red warning should include the entire southern coast.

Titain

Since this is a cat 3 now, what will it reduce to, and what are the chances of it shifting before hitting us (ireland)?

JanuarySnowstor

Rte playing catch up now with bus Eireann news. Quickly becoming a major story

sdanseo

Let's just take a moment: there is a Category 3 Major Hurricane with sustained winds of almost 200km/h hurtling directly towards Ireland. This is unprecedented - it has never happened before.

And RTÉ have broadcast absolutely nothing about it of any substance since yesterday.

shmaupel

star gazer wrote: »

Rte

Guess the Limerick kids are just gonna have to battle on

star gazer

Rte

School buses operated by Bus Eireann in Cork, Kerry, Clare, Mayo and Galway will not run on Monday due to the expected arrival of the remains of Hurricane Ophelia.