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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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MJohnston

LaVail wrote: »

Do we have any sort of idea as to roughly when this storm would hit? Monday morning AM or more towards Monday night?

Add 5 hours to these AST times:

LaVail

My name is URL wrote: »

Probably gonna hit land in the AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

Thanks! Have hospital appointment in CUH Monday morning and it's a 200 mile round trip for me. Wouldn't be back in Kerry until around 3pm Not sure as to what I should do now.

uck51js9zml2yt

enricoh wrote: »

Will there be good surfing to be had Monday?! Dont want to take a day off monday n trek west for nothing!

Just make sure you are identifiable when the rescue services recover your body...a beacon would also be of help to save on time!

cherryghost

Wow, a 15% strengthening when everyone expected a levelling or slight decrease in intensity. The sea temps in its current position are slightly below marginal so I guess Ophelia is JUST in that zone.

Very interesting 24hrs to come.

pad199207

So thats a hurricane with 225KPH gusts not a million miles away from ourshores :eek::eek:

chris2007

How bad is Dublin likely to get hit?

star gazer

Beaufort scale of Wind force. Storm force = 48 knots plus. The probabilities will start to increase as the timeframe narrows assuming current forecasts are accurate.

The cone is narrowing over Ireland indicating improved forecast track certainty.

Ophelia's(ex) coming into view on tomorrows Atlantic Charts from Met Eireann Here

Rougies

Historical position of hurricanes when they transitioned to cat3 or higher.

patneve2

According to the HWRF model, the extra tropical cyclone will make landfall somewhere between Clare and Galway. Could be nasty on the E coast as well - if the wind is SE or even SSE coastal Wicklow and Dublin could get a hammering.

Interesting model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=17L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017101406&fh=57&xpos=0&ypos=0

Storm 10

Still nothing on RTE radio news

Cantona's Collars

Storm 10 wrote: »

Still nothing on RTE radio news

They copied and pasted the Met Eireann warning on their website and that's it,many older people listen to the radio and won't be checking online for weather warnings,surely RTE and the regional stations would have something by now.All I heard so far was a professor being interviewed by Matt Cooper yesterday before these upgrades.

MJohnston

The three latest wind speed probability charts. Tropical storm level winds almost certain for the entire country at this point:

More intense 50kt winds looking more and more likely in the southwest:

And starting to see hurricane force winds becoming quite likely in those areas too:

Gaoth Laidir

star gazer wrote: »

Beaufort scale of Wind force. Storm force = 48 knots plus. The probabilities will start to increase as the timeframe narrows assuming current forecasts are accurate.
]

"Storm" force on that chart refers to 34+ knots.

spookwoman

mickger844posts wrote: »

Anyone who suggests this will just be another windy day are in for a shock. This is looking like a once in a lifetime event. Its a stronger storm than Debbie in 1961.Be ready and prepared and hopefully it wont be as bad as its looking now.

I have a live Youtube stream set up for the event here in Waterford City. You can also check live data on my website www.waterfordweather.com

Looking at some of the models waterford might get a hammering.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

"Storm" force on that chart refers to 34+ knots.

It doesnt, there are 3 charts and that was the 50kt one.

star gazer

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

"Storm" force on that chart refers to 34+ knots.

The Chart is for 50 knot-plus wind, roughly storm force wind on the Beaufort scale.

star gazer

Rte

School buses operated by Bus Eireann in Cork, Kerry, Clare, Mayo and Galway will not run on Monday due to the expected arrival of the remains of Hurricane Ophelia.

shmaupel

star gazer wrote: »

Rte

Guess the Limerick kids are just gonna have to battle on

sdanseo

Let's just take a moment: there is a Category 3 Major Hurricane with sustained winds of almost 200km/h hurtling directly towards Ireland. This is unprecedented - it has never happened before.

And RTÉ have broadcast absolutely nothing about it of any substance since yesterday.

JanuarySnowstor

Rte playing catch up now with bus Eireann news. Quickly becoming a major story

Titain

Since this is a cat 3 now, what will it reduce to, and what are the chances of it shifting before hitting us (ireland)?

TheMilkyPirate

TBH I think that red warning should include the entire southern coast.

dashoonage

shmaupel wrote: »

Guess the Limerick kids are just gonna have to battle on

ill never understand that...any time there is a warning for that side of the island limerick is always left out :P

RobbingBandit

Seen some info saying the winds would track quite badly to the east of the storm path so will exposed areas of Dublin be hit bad by the winds and what's the likely hood of thunder storms?

ellieh1

Can't understand why Co. Limerick isn't covered under the Red warning. I presume that could change before Monday????

star gazer

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919224875000238080
Plenty of cloud on the forecast track.

Kermit.de.frog

First of the 12z models

ICON

PLL

M.T. Cranium

This cat-3 development means very little to the forecast model performance since it was expected to be a strong cat-2 anyway and the extratropical storm depictions on most models have been near theoretical peak intensity anyway (referring to positions south of Ireland).

This is really just one more cherry in a cherry pie situation, it has no direct implication on the outcome, that is mostly going to be a matter of the dynamics of the upper low forming in the trough by late Sunday and into Monday. Ex-Ophelia will rapidly phase with this upper low, and the dynamics will determine the details but I can't see much variation from what most on here have concluded, level 3 conditions for southwest and some west coast areas, possibly extending some distance into the south-central inland counties.

ME have their warnings out but I think it might be possible to see Limerick, Waterford, and even Carlow, Kilkenny and Tipps (south) added to red status.

As always the boundary between levels will not neatly coincide with county boundaries anyway, if I lived in a well-exposed area of any county I would assume the risk of level 3.

JanuarySnowstor

You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts