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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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leahyl

Jesus, this has to downgrade - still have to wait until tomorrow isn’t it, to be in reliable timeframe?

uck51js9zml2yt

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/919194553562775552

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919186923767377920

https://twitter.com/StormhunterNL/status/919180726171590656

I wish I knew what that post meant!!

Kermit.de.frog

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Wow !

Definitely Cat 3.

Meteorite58

Wow !

channaigh

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/919180353398599680

The main rain on the western part of the storm. Ireland will be in the main area for the strongest winds.

How will Kilkenny fair in this Robert ?

sdanseo

NHC's update at 4pm is going to be very interesting.

They are the experts at hurricanes. Nearly wish they'd send over a Poseidon to Portugal to get the same level of analysis as they would for a westbound one...because that APERGE shows 190km/h gusts along the south coast.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/919194553562775552

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919186923767377920

https://twitter.com/StormhunterNL/status/919180726171590656

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/919180353398599680

The main rain on the western part of the storm. Ireland will be in the main area for the strongest winds.

New Home

Hamlet's Ophelia drowned herself, let's hope this Ophelia will meet its watery death before it reaches Ireland.

lucernarian

That hurricane looks very very well-developed for a Cat 2 on the latest images... If estimates put it at over 100kt wind speeds, that has to warrant Cat 3 classification (major hurricane)?

gozunda

ellieh1 wrote: »

Just curious as to why Met Eireann has not included Limerick in the Red warning......seems strange when they have included Cork, Kerry, Galway etc..

I agree. Looking at the latest estimated track - the storm looks like co Limerick will experience high wind speeds similar to that previously estimated for Clare / Kerry / Cork.

The geography if the county doesn't help either with little or no protection from South westerly winds. The open esturary of the river Shannon running effectively north county Kerry all the way to Clare coupled with the relatively flat geophysical landscape in the West of the county.

The east of the county also has a major mountain range which tends to exacerbate storm conditions and can increase local wind speeds. This area received serious damage during Storm Darwin.

Meteorite58

WRF- NMM

Gusts

mel.b

Just wondering what has caused this hurricane to travel east towards us, rather than west as they typically do? Is it due to where it first formed?

Strangegravy

Has no one considered the Saharan dust!

https://twitter.com/geogabout/status/919170465960259584

fraxinus1

Pangea wrote: »

For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?

No. A strong gale but nothing that we don't get several times a year.

Meteorite58

ICON

Mean

Gusts

Kermit.de.frog

Weather Channel speculating that it is now a major Category 3 hurricane.

Meteorite58

Mean speeds

Gusts

TheMilkyPirate

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919186923767377920

Ophelia more intense than expected, Will be interesting to see how the models interpret this on the next runs.

firemansam4

Pangea wrote: »

For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?

I don't think we will get it much worse than what we can normally expect from a bad autumn storm up here, I think its the south that's going to get the brunt of this if it pans out.

etselbbuns

JCX BXC wrote: »

Slight change of wording by ME
"Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"

O'Phelia, surely?

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

Lets get posts back on Topic.

Refrain from personal attacks.

If you have a problem with a post report it.

Pangea

For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?

Nettle Soup

firemansam4 wrote: »

But ME have already shouted wolf on this, I think people are wondering why news channels are not reporting on it yet.
Then again my thinking on it would be that it may take them a little time to get all the facts and details on it first before they can report on it themselves.

Yes they did when they absolutely knew it was a wolf. And fair play to them, I trust them completely. Hopefully the wolf is worn out from howling when it hits out shores

I live in rural Galway so it will be interesting. I look forward to cleaning all the leaves out of the gutters on Tuesday

Meteorite58

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

MOD NOTE Warning Recieved . Obey Forum Charter

5. No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

jasper100

server down wrote: »

Exactly 3 hours ago you called this a non event.

I didn't. But you keep up the bias.

La.de.da

Just want to say thanks for all the relevant updates on this thread.

Have the tealights and torches ready. Cigarettes and possibly some alcohol

terrified of strong winds.

Hopefully it will pass without too much disruption.

firemansam4

Nettle Soup wrote: »

3News just said Met Eireann are tracking this storm very carefully and will have more accurate warnings and metrics as the weekend progresses.

Some people would have ME shout wolf too early at every given opportunity. I admire their restraint. They rarely get it wrong. People will be fully reminded and informed by Monday no matter what track or intensity the storm takes.

But ME have already shouted wolf on this, I think people are wondering why news channels are not reporting on it yet.
Then again my thinking on it would be that it may take them a little time to get all the facts and details on it first before they can report on it themselves.

Spanish Eyes

The flight radar forum on Aviation board could be interesting when the winds pick up.

Go arounds, diversions. holds etc. I was on a plane into Dublin when a go around happened. Was very scary. The wings were flapping up and down in a terrific wind, but we got down in the end. Pilots are amazing, but as I understand it every airline has its own max wind speeds within which to attempt a landing.

Hooter23

Lia_lia wrote: »

My brother is supposed to be flying out of Cork (on a plane :pac: ) on Monday. Wonder what will happen with flights..

I think everyone will be flying out of Cork come Monday:pac: