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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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JCX BXC

Slight change of wording by ME

"Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"

r93kaey5p2izun

How many Red warnings have ME issued since that system was introduced here? And how long is that system in place?

jasper100

fraxinus1 wrote: »

OK so Met Eireann have upped the warnings.... but I would be inclined to go with what's on the boards forum. Met E have shown themselves to be a bit slow with this one. Anyway I'm evacuating mother to the sisters house tomorrow. Her house is very exposed by the coast and she is 94.

Great call by people on here.

Bit confused at your met eireann bashing. They called red warning long before it was upgraded in the thread title here.

Prior to issueing the warning met eireann have been flagging it for several days now, as has this thread.

touts

My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.

Pintman Paddy Losty

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

[Deleted User]

JCX BXC wrote: »

Slight change of wording by ME

"Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"

You mean there's a possibility it might not transition?

What's the defining difference between a hurricane and a post tropical storm?

sdanseo

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

This is Ireland, a 200km wide island. Nearly everyone is by the sea.

We have a red warning and recent evidence of still further intensification towards Cat 3. Yes, all it takes is a minor change of track to miss us completely, but that's no reason to be complacent. Current indications are for a direct hit and if you're wondering what that means, take a leaf out of Bastardi's book and read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)

touts wrote: »

My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.

Where's this?

km79

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

Ridiculous statement
If it goes as forecast there will be plenty of damage and disruption inland

server down

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

Thanks for your expertise.

Rikand

How are the Azores going to be affected by this ?

A cat 3 hurricane passing near/through them will surely be pretty devastating

mirrorwall14

sdanseo wrote: »

This is Ireland, a 200km wide island. Nearly everyone is by the sea.

We have a red warning and recent evidence of still further intensification towards Cat 3. Yes, all it takes is a minor change of track to miss us completely, but that's no reason to be complacent. Current indications are for a direct hit and if you're wondering what that means, take a leaf out of Bastardi's book and read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)

Where's this?

Maynooth have done this. It was funny because we picked up torches in the euroshop and were debating whether to grab some water and I was like, whatever about electricity we’re probably safe for water. If we need it then we’re ****ed. Then I went up the escalator and there it was!

Irish Steve

touts wrote: »

My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.

If the Tesco is in Dublin, possibly true, if it's in Kerry, it may be very appropriate, as there will be a lot of people who have pumps attached to wells, and if this storm does come through with the intensity that now appears to be likely, there will be parts of the country that may not have power to run things like pumps for several days, so stocks of bottled water will be completely appropriate for them.

In the same vein, not putting the red out on the 1300 forecast was leaving people in rural areas with less chance to get things like sandbags to hold down items and the like, some of these items are not "on the shelf" in local shops in rural areas, and there's not the same density of places open or available on a Sunday to get these sorts of items.

Nettle Soup

3News just said Met Eireann are tracking this storm very carefully and will have more accurate warnings and metrics as the weekend progresses.

Some people would have ME shout wolf too early at every given opportunity. I admire their restraint. They rarely get it wrong. People will be fully reminded and informed by Monday no matter what track or intensity the storm takes.

cherryghost

It's worth noting for anyone outside the red warning zones that are in mountainous exposed areas to take care of themselves also.

mirrorwall14

Irish Steve wrote: »

If the Tesco is in Dublin, possibly true, if it's in Kerry, it may be very appropriate, as there will be a lot of people who have pumps attached to wells, and if this storm does come through with the intensity that now appears to be likely, there will be parts of the country that may not have power to run things like pumps for several days, so stocks of bottled water will be completely appropriate for them.

In the same vein, not putting the red out on the 1300 forecast was leaving people in rural areas with less chance to get things like sandbags to hold down items and the like, some of these items are not "on the shelf" in local shops in rural areas, and there's not the same density of places open or available on a Sunday to get these sorts of items.

My guess it was a countrywide tesco decision, they usually have the same things on display towards the front of the stores so if the call went out for the red warning it was probably applied to everyone

server down

jasper100 wrote: »

Bit confused at your met eireann bashing. They called red warning long before it was upgraded in the thread title here.

Prior to issueing the warning met eireann have been flagging it for several days now, as has this thread.

Exactly 3 hours ago you called this a non event.

Hooter23

Lia_lia wrote: »

My brother is supposed to be flying out of Cork (on a plane :pac: ) on Monday. Wonder what will happen with flights..

I think everyone will be flying out of Cork come Monday:pac:

Spanish Eyes

The flight radar forum on Aviation board could be interesting when the winds pick up.

Go arounds, diversions. holds etc. I was on a plane into Dublin when a go around happened. Was very scary. The wings were flapping up and down in a terrific wind, but we got down in the end. Pilots are amazing, but as I understand it every airline has its own max wind speeds within which to attempt a landing.

firemansam4

Nettle Soup wrote: »

3News just said Met Eireann are tracking this storm very carefully and will have more accurate warnings and metrics as the weekend progresses.

Some people would have ME shout wolf too early at every given opportunity. I admire their restraint. They rarely get it wrong. People will be fully reminded and informed by Monday no matter what track or intensity the storm takes.

But ME have already shouted wolf on this, I think people are wondering why news channels are not reporting on it yet.
Then again my thinking on it would be that it may take them a little time to get all the facts and details on it first before they can report on it themselves.

La.de.da

Just want to say thanks for all the relevant updates on this thread.

Have the tealights and torches ready. Cigarettes and possibly some alcohol

terrified of strong winds.

Hopefully it will pass without too much disruption.

jasper100

server down wrote: »

Exactly 3 hours ago you called this a non event.

I didn't. But you keep up the bias.

Meteorite58

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

MOD NOTE Warning Recieved . Obey Forum Charter

5. No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

Nettle Soup

firemansam4 wrote: »

But ME have already shouted wolf on this, I think people are wondering why news channels are not reporting on it yet.
Then again my thinking on it would be that it may take them a little time to get all the facts and details on it first before they can report on it themselves.

Yes they did when they absolutely knew it was a wolf. And fair play to them, I trust them completely. Hopefully the wolf is worn out from howling when it hits out shores

I live in rural Galway so it will be interesting. I look forward to cleaning all the leaves out of the gutters on Tuesday

Pangea

For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

Lets get posts back on Topic.

Refrain from personal attacks.

If you have a problem with a post report it.

etselbbuns

JCX BXC wrote: »

Slight change of wording by ME
"Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"

O'Phelia, surely?

firemansam4

Pangea wrote: »

For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?

I don't think we will get it much worse than what we can normally expect from a bad autumn storm up here, I think its the south that's going to get the brunt of this if it pans out.

TheMilkyPirate

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919186923767377920

Ophelia more intense than expected, Will be interesting to see how the models interpret this on the next runs.

Meteorite58

Mean speeds

Gusts

Kermit.de.frog

Weather Channel speculating that it is now a major Category 3 hurricane.