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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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jasper100 wrote: »

Bit confused at your met eireann bashing. They called red warning long before it was upgraded in the thread title here.

Prior to issueing the warning met eireann have been flagging it for several days now, as has this thread.

Exactly 3 hours ago you called this a non event.

mirrorwall14

Irish Steve wrote: »

If the Tesco is in Dublin, possibly true, if it's in Kerry, it may be very appropriate, as there will be a lot of people who have pumps attached to wells, and if this storm does come through with the intensity that now appears to be likely, there will be parts of the country that may not have power to run things like pumps for several days, so stocks of bottled water will be completely appropriate for them.

In the same vein, not putting the red out on the 1300 forecast was leaving people in rural areas with less chance to get things like sandbags to hold down items and the like, some of these items are not "on the shelf" in local shops in rural areas, and there's not the same density of places open or available on a Sunday to get these sorts of items.

My guess it was a countrywide tesco decision, they usually have the same things on display towards the front of the stores so if the call went out for the red warning it was probably applied to everyone

cherryghost

It's worth noting for anyone outside the red warning zones that are in mountainous exposed areas to take care of themselves also.

Nettle Soup

3News just said Met Eireann are tracking this storm very carefully and will have more accurate warnings and metrics as the weekend progresses.

Some people would have ME shout wolf too early at every given opportunity. I admire their restraint. They rarely get it wrong. People will be fully reminded and informed by Monday no matter what track or intensity the storm takes.

Irish Steve

touts wrote: »

My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.

If the Tesco is in Dublin, possibly true, if it's in Kerry, it may be very appropriate, as there will be a lot of people who have pumps attached to wells, and if this storm does come through with the intensity that now appears to be likely, there will be parts of the country that may not have power to run things like pumps for several days, so stocks of bottled water will be completely appropriate for them.

In the same vein, not putting the red out on the 1300 forecast was leaving people in rural areas with less chance to get things like sandbags to hold down items and the like, some of these items are not "on the shelf" in local shops in rural areas, and there's not the same density of places open or available on a Sunday to get these sorts of items.

mirrorwall14

sdanseo wrote: »

This is Ireland, a 200km wide island. Nearly everyone is by the sea.

We have a red warning and recent evidence of still further intensification towards Cat 3. Yes, all it takes is a minor change of track to miss us completely, but that's no reason to be complacent. Current indications are for a direct hit and if you're wondering what that means, take a leaf out of Bastardi's book and read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)

Where's this?

Maynooth have done this. It was funny because we picked up torches in the euroshop and were debating whether to grab some water and I was like, whatever about electricity we’re probably safe for water. If we need it then we’re ****ed. Then I went up the escalator and there it was!

Rikand

How are the Azores going to be affected by this ?

A cat 3 hurricane passing near/through them will surely be pretty devastating

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Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

Thanks for your expertise.

km79

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

Ridiculous statement
If it goes as forecast there will be plenty of damage and disruption inland

sdanseo

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

This is Ireland, a 200km wide island. Nearly everyone is by the sea.

We have a red warning and recent evidence of still further intensification towards Cat 3. Yes, all it takes is a minor change of track to miss us completely, but that's no reason to be complacent. Current indications are for a direct hit and if you're wondering what that means, take a leaf out of Bastardi's book and read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)

touts wrote: »

My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.

Where's this?

[Deleted User]

JCX BXC wrote: »

Slight change of wording by ME

"Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"

You mean there's a possibility it might not transition?

What's the defining difference between a hurricane and a post tropical storm?

Pintman Paddy Losty

People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

touts

My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.

jasper100

fraxinus1 wrote: »

OK so Met Eireann have upped the warnings.... but I would be inclined to go with what's on the boards forum. Met E have shown themselves to be a bit slow with this one. Anyway I'm evacuating mother to the sisters house tomorrow. Her house is very exposed by the coast and she is 94.

Great call by people on here.

Bit confused at your met eireann bashing. They called red warning long before it was upgraded in the thread title here.

Prior to issueing the warning met eireann have been flagging it for several days now, as has this thread.

r93kaey5p2izun

How many Red warnings have ME issued since that system was introduced here? And how long is that system in place?

JCX BXC

Slight change of wording by ME

"Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"

BorneTobyWilde

dense

antodeco wrote: »

Status red and not s pickle on Rte. I'm so glad all the general public use met.ie. FFS rte, update!

It's the weekend. RTE really only does foreign news at weekends.

Westernyelp

i'm Just amazed by the amount of trampolines in the country.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/919177472238899200

fraxinus1

OK so Met Eireann have upped the warnings.... but I would be inclined to go with what's on the boards forum. Met E have shown themselves to be a bit slow with this one. Anyway I'm evacuating mother to the sisters house tomorrow. Her house is very exposed by the coast and she is 94.

Great call by people on here.

pilly

If people would just cut the crap there would be no need for different threads. FFS grow up.

Discodog

Weathercheck wrote: »

ME have the same forecaster numbers 7 days a week

You can only find the warning on the ME website if you look for it

pad199207

Recent satellite showing possible intensification for Ophelia

Some talk too of bordering Major Hurricane now

RobertKK

Joe Bastardi believes Ex hurricane Ophelia will rival hurricane Debbie.

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/919177352499924992

ninebeanrows

Discodog wrote: »

I agree. We really need this.

There will always be a problem when an event happens close to the weekend. All the broadcast media revert to weekend schedules as do ME.

ME have the same forecaster numbers 7 days a week

Discodog

Liffey4A wrote: »

MODS - Any chance of a new Model Discussion only thread please ?

I agree. We really need this.

There will always be a problem when an event happens close to the weekend. All the broadcast media revert to weekend schedules as do ME.

Nettle Soup

More importantly, is Teresa Mannion on stand-by?

Irish Steve

Storm 10 wrote: »

How come boards is not gone Red

Several possible reasons

The moderators are very likely kind of busy dealing with the massive number of troll posts that are cluttering up the thread. ME issued the red at 12:00, and it didn't appear on line till quite some time later, resulting in RTE being flat footed as a result, and given the Red and Orange status for different parts of the country, I suspect there's a (valid) discussion happening as to the best way to deal with it, with a very real possibility of having several threads (one red, one orange and maybe one general thread for the trolling type posts to get dumped into, but (from experience elsewhere) managing that sort of thread split needs a high level of moderator involvement, which puts pressure on the moderation team to deliver an acceptable response, which may not be possible, depending on who's available, etc.

Moderation can be a thankless task, especially at weekends when a thread like this goes viral, so we all need to take a breath, and let them decide the best approach to this.

We're still over 24 hours out from the start of the event, so it's not (yet) life threatening, even if the potential event does have that possibility in it when it happens.

Nettle Soup

munsterlegend wrote: »

That is very bad communication to be fair. Plenty older people rely on the tv forecast. At least there is still over 36 hours to go.

Which is loads of time to be fair. I think if they cover it on the 6pm and 9pm news today, that will be decent notice. The risk has been mentioned a few times this week in online, print and television news.

There's not a whole you can do to prepare for a storm like this and there is no point in scaring the life out of people. The only thing I will do differently is throw a few sandbags on the trampoline and make sure there is nothing loose around the garden.

There is one old bachelor farmer living up the road that I will call into to make sure he as enough turf and supplies in but he has seen it all before.