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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Storm 10

How come boards is not gone Red

pad199207

emeldc wrote: »

If you were working for me I'd sack you for calling in sick because of the weather :mad:

Off topic remark. Had to be said.

No it didn’t have to to be said!

Kermit.de.frog

I'm erring on the side that a red warning is not really warranted at this stage. I'd have gone amber max so far in the most exposed areas.

Anyhow...

thomasj

emeldc wrote:

If you were working for me I'd sack you for calling in sick because of the weather

emeldc wrote:

Off topic remark. Had to be said.

If productivity counts over your employees wellbeing I'm glad I don't work for you.

Coax

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

Not necessarily.

Bus Eireann school bus servicrs WON'T run in ateas covered by a red warning.

It's up to the individual schools themselves to decide if they will close or remain open.

munsterlegend

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm erring on the side that a red warning is not really warranted at this stage. I'd have gone amber max so far in the most exposed areas.

Anyhow...

Yeah was certain it would be amber today with the potential to go to red. Met Eireann are the professionals and have access to a lot more information and I am sure red is not something they would issue lightly. Of course it could change again by tomorrow.

ninebeanrows

If there was ever a weather event to deserve a red warning surely this is it- and given lots of warning time. Is the world going to end - no. Are we facing widespread destruction - no! But a very intense storm is going to make landfall on Monday. At present the Greater Dublin area looks least exposed so may lessen slightly the coverage of the storm. But I'd be very worried for the south coast - 70-80 knot gusts very likely, locally hitting 85

km79

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

Our school was opened during Darwin
Then sent home during the height of it .........

ellieh1

Just curious as to why Met Eireann has not included Limerick in the Red warning......seems strange when they have included Cork, Kerry, Galway etc..

JCX BXC

km79 wrote: »

Our school was opened during Darwin
Then sent home during the height of it .........

Here in Clare the local primary school sent children home once the warning became red at about half 1, and then plenty of people couldn't actually get to the schools due to blocked roads.

irish1967

Can ME realistically downgrade from RED to ORANGE?
Yes... I know they can downgrade but certain processes are triggered by a RED (school buses not running, for example) these processes will hardly be reversed if it downgraded to ORANGE.

Brave step by ME to go straight to red.

Kermit.de.frog

Some current evidence the hurricane is now exhibiting Category 3 characteristics. Would be extraordinary if we saw an upgrade at the next advisory.

Liffey4A

MODS - Any chance of a new Model Discussion only thread please ?

emeldc

thomasj wrote: »

If productivity counts over your employees wellbeing I'm glad I don't work for you.

Just like the poster you're missing the point. If his/her wellbeing is the issue then why call in sick.

Anyway, it's a very interesting and informative thread. Thanks to all those posters in the know.

allthedoyles

I nearly got caught under a curtainsider last storm , think it was Feb 2014 . So I would advise all truck drivers with curtainsiders in the West to take Monday off .

thomasj

emeldc wrote:

Just like the poster you're missing the point. If his/her wellbeing is the issue then why call in sick.

That point I agree with you but if it's at the stage that people believe they have to call in sick to avoid travelling through a monster storm then there's something seriously wrong.

Nettle Soup

munsterlegend wrote: »

That is very bad communication to be fair. Plenty older people rely on the tv forecast. At least there is still over 36 hours to go.

Which is loads of time to be fair. I think if they cover it on the 6pm and 9pm news today, that will be decent notice. The risk has been mentioned a few times this week in online, print and television news.

There's not a whole you can do to prepare for a storm like this and there is no point in scaring the life out of people. The only thing I will do differently is throw a few sandbags on the trampoline and make sure there is nothing loose around the garden.

There is one old bachelor farmer living up the road that I will call into to make sure he as enough turf and supplies in but he has seen it all before.

Irish Steve

Storm 10 wrote: »

How come boards is not gone Red

Several possible reasons

The moderators are very likely kind of busy dealing with the massive number of troll posts that are cluttering up the thread. ME issued the red at 12:00, and it didn't appear on line till quite some time later, resulting in RTE being flat footed as a result, and given the Red and Orange status for different parts of the country, I suspect there's a (valid) discussion happening as to the best way to deal with it, with a very real possibility of having several threads (one red, one orange and maybe one general thread for the trolling type posts to get dumped into, but (from experience elsewhere) managing that sort of thread split needs a high level of moderator involvement, which puts pressure on the moderation team to deliver an acceptable response, which may not be possible, depending on who's available, etc.

Moderation can be a thankless task, especially at weekends when a thread like this goes viral, so we all need to take a breath, and let them decide the best approach to this.

We're still over 24 hours out from the start of the event, so it's not (yet) life threatening, even if the potential event does have that possibility in it when it happens.

Nettle Soup

More importantly, is Teresa Mannion on stand-by?

Discodog

Liffey4A wrote: »

MODS - Any chance of a new Model Discussion only thread please ?

I agree. We really need this.

There will always be a problem when an event happens close to the weekend. All the broadcast media revert to weekend schedules as do ME.

ninebeanrows

Discodog wrote: »

I agree. We really need this.

There will always be a problem when an event happens close to the weekend. All the broadcast media revert to weekend schedules as do ME.

ME have the same forecaster numbers 7 days a week

RobertKK

Joe Bastardi believes Ex hurricane Ophelia will rival hurricane Debbie.

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/919177352499924992

pad199207

Recent satellite showing possible intensification for Ophelia

Some talk too of bordering Major Hurricane now

Discodog

Weathercheck wrote: »

ME have the same forecaster numbers 7 days a week

You can only find the warning on the ME website if you look for it

pilly

If people would just cut the crap there would be no need for different threads. FFS grow up.

fraxinus1

OK so Met Eireann have upped the warnings.... but I would be inclined to go with what's on the boards forum. Met E have shown themselves to be a bit slow with this one. Anyway I'm evacuating mother to the sisters house tomorrow. Her house is very exposed by the coast and she is 94.

Great call by people on here.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/919177472238899200

Westernyelp

i'm Just amazed by the amount of trampolines in the country.

dense

antodeco wrote: »

Status red and not s pickle on Rte. I'm so glad all the general public use met.ie. FFS rte, update!

It's the weekend. RTE really only does foreign news at weekends.

BorneTobyWilde