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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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pad199207

Meireann have gone straight to RED!

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:Saturday 14 October 2017 12:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for The rest of the country
Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between of 110 and 130km/h are expected, however some inland areas may not be quite as severe. The winds have potential to cause structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:Saturday 14 October 2017 12:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
On Monday, an Atlantic storm from the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will move northwards close to Ireland. There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the exact track and evolution of the storm. However, storm force winds, heavy rain and high seas are threatened. Met Eireann will continue to monitor this storm and will issue appropriate warnings as required.

Issued:Friday 13 October 2017 08:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 06:00

squarecircles

!!!!!!!RED ALERT ISSUED! BY MET EIREANN
THIS JUST GOT SERIOUS!!!!

GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 130KMH

Galway mayo Clare cork and Kerry.

ORANGE WARNING REST OF THE COUNTRY.

davo2001

squarecircles wrote: »

!!!!!!!RED ALERT ISSUED! BY MET EIREANN
THIS JUST GOT SERIOUS!!!!

Galway mayo Clare cork and Kerry.

Serious, yes, but massive cap locks serious, no.

People just need to take nesessary precautions and not get carried away (pun intended).

server down

jasper100 wrote: »

Exactly, until Met Eireann issue warning this stuff is merely speculative and hypothetical.

In the event that specific counties get a level 3 warning tomorrow there is plenty of time tomorrow to tidy away trampolines and wheelie bins, move cars away from trees etc.

If you don’t like the idea that a weather thread about an event - with its many experts - gives earlier warnings than Met.ie why are you on the thread? Just rely on Met.ie

Akrasia

davo2001 wrote: »

Serious, yes, but massive cap locks serious, no.

People just need to take nesessary precautions and not get carried away (pun intended).

DO not, I repeat DO NOT
leave your washing on the line on Monday.

mickmackey1

905 posts for something that may not happen? wtf

Akrasia

907 now

Coax

flaneur wrote: »

In hindsight I think I will batten down the hatches and net over the skip that’s outside. Anyone got any idea wheee you can get netting?

Company that supplied the skip will have them.

They are supposed to put them over them if transporting them with anything that could fly out. So they should be able to sort you out.

Arcady

I'm booked to fly Dublin to Birmingham around 19:00 on Monday. I'm actually based in Cork, and would travel to Dublin by train or coach, so I'd be setting out about noon. Obviously the whole thing is really badly timed. Doh!

But can I ask you experts whether, given what can be reasonably foreseen, I should just throw in the towel at this point, and resign myself to the flight being cancelled? If that's the case, I'd be much better off staying home in Cork city. If there are going to be mass cancellations on Monday, anybody got a sense of when official notification might be issued?

I know it's all probabilities, but you guys are much better equipped to estimate them than I am, and I'd really appreciate any informed advice.

__..__

iguana wrote: »

Move it into as sheltered a spot as you can, take the safety nets down and drive crowbars over the legs like giant tent pegs. That's secured it for me through the storms of the last few winters.

Thanks.
I think its secure enough though. Didnt come out during Desmod, so im going to trust my handywork for this one too.
I would be more worried about the trees though.

antodeco

Status red and not s pickle on Rte. I'm so glad all the general public use met.ie. FFS rte, update!

mickmackey1

__..__ wrote: »

Thanks.
I think its secure enough though. Didnt come out during Desmod, so im going to trust my handywork for this one too.
I would be more worried about the trees though.

That username made me smile

__..__

Den Creed wrote: »

A Jesus, and its bin day on Monday in Kerry as well

For Gods sake man, dont put the bins out. We dont want your rubbish in Cork.

Irish Steve

The more significant aspect of the red and orange warning for me is the potential time period, the start is now somewhat earlier, and it has the possibility of running overnight into Tuesday early hours, which seems to be a spread compared to what was happening. Will be interesting to see how this is mentioned in the lunch time forecast shortly.

As to why, we'll have to wait for the later updates to see what's triggered the updates and upgrades. Hopefully now, this will at least damp down the level of trolling posts that have been happening.

Those sorts of sustained and gust speeds have the potential to move more substantial things like oil tanks if there's not much oil in them, given that the direction will not be the normal west of south quadrant, so people in the red area may want to check to see if there's a risk of tanks being moved by this one.

Calina

Deleted User wrote: »

At 10 am.

That is a stunning image. I don't suppose prints of these things can be got commercially?

Aside from that I am in central Europe so well out of harm's way but with family and friend concerns. Will be watching what plays out.

ascophyllum

Irish Steve wrote: »

Those sorts of sustained and gust speeds have the potential to move more substantial things like oil tanks if there's not much oil in them, given that the direction will not be the normal west of south quadrant, so people in the red area may want to check to see if there's a risk of tanks being moved by this one.

Exactly, the wind is forecast to be East and South East for most of the stronger affected areas on Monday, I think people will get a surprise to have storm force from that direction, many doorways, shed openings etc. face east, as do many sheltered harbours on the west coast.

stevek93

I am a bit spooked with this storm to be fair debating whether to call into work sick on Monday what is others thinking?

pp_me

stevek93 wrote: »

I am a bit spooked with this storm to be fair debating whether to call into work sick on Monday what is others thinking?

Working from home hopefully. Couldnt leave the poor dog out in the back garden all day.. Could I?

pilly

antodeco wrote:

Status red and not s pickle on Rte. I'm so glad all the general public use met.ie. FFS rte, update!

Not even a mention on the news.

JCX BXC

Arcady wrote: »

I'm booked to fly Dublin to Birmingham around 19:00 on Monday. I'm actually based in Cork, and would travel to Dublin by train or coach, so I'd be setting out about noon. Obviously the whole thing is really badly timed. Doh!

But can I ask you experts whether, given what can be reasonably foreseen, I should just throw in the towel at this point, and resign myself to the flight being cancelled? If that's the case, I'd be much better off staying home in Cork city. If there are going to be mass cancellations on Monday, anybody got a sense of when official notification might be issued?

I know it's all probabilities, but you guys are much better equipped to estimate them than I am, and I'd really appreciate any informed advice.

I had a post about this yesterday, quite far back though.

Basically I'd put off the decision until tomorrow evening, or even Monday morning. We simply don't know what wind will be like at specific locations yet!

squarecircles

Atrocious,no reference to the RED ALERT on the RTE lunchtime weather bulletin.

JCX BXC

They still have a yellow warning icon on the RTE weather and no mention of the red warning whatsoever! Doesn't inspire confidence for those who hope for the TV weather completely up to date!

I expected at least for it to be mentioned on the TV weather. Plenty of time yet to warn people but still!

George Sunsnow

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

outsourced_ire

Wow. They really skimmed over it all in that forecast!

pilly

George Sunsnow wrote:

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

Not if nobody knows about the warnings!

Irish Steve

Hmmmmm..... Both RTE and ME have been caught out by the release of the RED status, they must have pre recorded the forecast, as they've not even mentioned the red, all they have said is "stay in touch", very low key, and completely out of touch with what's now on their web site. Not exactly impressive.

Den Creed

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

Well the last time there was a red, they were shut, better off if they did, I have an English test Monday

munsterlegend

Irish Steve wrote: »

Hmmmmm..... Both RTE and ME have been caught out by the release of the RED status, they must have pre recorded the forecast, as they've not even mentioned the red, all they have said is "stay in touch", very low key, and completely out of touch with what's now on their web site. Not exactly impressive.

That is very bad communication to be fair. Plenty older people rely on the tv forecast. At least there is still over 36 hours to go.

emeldc

stevek93 wrote: »

I am a bit spooked with this storm to be fair debating whether to call into work sick on Monday what is others thinking?

If you were working for me I'd sack you for calling in sick because of the weather :mad:

Off topic remark. Had to be said.

[Deleted User]

My brother is supposed to be flying out of Cork (on a plane :pac: ) on Monday. Wonder what will happen with flights..