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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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thomasj

emeldc wrote:

Just like the poster you're missing the point. If his/her wellbeing is the issue then why call in sick.

That point I agree with you but if it's at the stage that people believe they have to call in sick to avoid travelling through a monster storm then there's something seriously wrong.

allthedoyles

I nearly got caught under a curtainsider last storm , think it was Feb 2014 . So I would advise all truck drivers with curtainsiders in the West to take Monday off .

emeldc

thomasj wrote: »

If productivity counts over your employees wellbeing I'm glad I don't work for you.

Just like the poster you're missing the point. If his/her wellbeing is the issue then why call in sick.

Anyway, it's a very interesting and informative thread. Thanks to all those posters in the know.

Liffey4A

MODS - Any chance of a new Model Discussion only thread please ?

Kermit.de.frog

Some current evidence the hurricane is now exhibiting Category 3 characteristics. Would be extraordinary if we saw an upgrade at the next advisory.

irish1967

Can ME realistically downgrade from RED to ORANGE?
Yes... I know they can downgrade but certain processes are triggered by a RED (school buses not running, for example) these processes will hardly be reversed if it downgraded to ORANGE.

Brave step by ME to go straight to red.

JCX BXC

km79 wrote: »

Our school was opened during Darwin
Then sent home during the height of it .........

Here in Clare the local primary school sent children home once the warning became red at about half 1, and then plenty of people couldn't actually get to the schools due to blocked roads.

ellieh1

Just curious as to why Met Eireann has not included Limerick in the Red warning......seems strange when they have included Cork, Kerry, Galway etc..

km79

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

Our school was opened during Darwin
Then sent home during the height of it .........

ninebeanrows

If there was ever a weather event to deserve a red warning surely this is it- and given lots of warning time. Is the world going to end - no. Are we facing widespread destruction - no! But a very intense storm is going to make landfall on Monday. At present the Greater Dublin area looks least exposed so may lessen slightly the coverage of the storm. But I'd be very worried for the south coast - 70-80 knot gusts very likely, locally hitting 85

munsterlegend

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm erring on the side that a red warning is not really warranted at this stage. I'd have gone amber max so far in the most exposed areas.

Anyhow...

Yeah was certain it would be amber today with the potential to go to red. Met Eireann are the professionals and have access to a lot more information and I am sure red is not something they would issue lightly. Of course it could change again by tomorrow.

Coax

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

Not necessarily.

Bus Eireann school bus servicrs WON'T run in ateas covered by a red warning.

It's up to the individual schools themselves to decide if they will close or remain open.

thomasj

emeldc wrote:

If you were working for me I'd sack you for calling in sick because of the weather

emeldc wrote:

Off topic remark. Had to be said.

If productivity counts over your employees wellbeing I'm glad I don't work for you.

Kermit.de.frog

I'm erring on the side that a red warning is not really warranted at this stage. I'd have gone amber max so far in the most exposed areas.

Anyhow...

pad199207

emeldc wrote: »

If you were working for me I'd sack you for calling in sick because of the weather :mad:

Off topic remark. Had to be said.

No it didn’t have to to be said!

Storm 10

How come boards is not gone Red

[Deleted User]

My brother is supposed to be flying out of Cork (on a plane :pac: ) on Monday. Wonder what will happen with flights..

emeldc

stevek93 wrote: »

I am a bit spooked with this storm to be fair debating whether to call into work sick on Monday what is others thinking?

If you were working for me I'd sack you for calling in sick because of the weather :mad:

Off topic remark. Had to be said.

munsterlegend

Irish Steve wrote: »

Hmmmmm..... Both RTE and ME have been caught out by the release of the RED status, they must have pre recorded the forecast, as they've not even mentioned the red, all they have said is "stay in touch", very low key, and completely out of touch with what's now on their web site. Not exactly impressive.

That is very bad communication to be fair. Plenty older people rely on the tv forecast. At least there is still over 36 hours to go.

Den Creed

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

Well the last time there was a red, they were shut, better off if they did, I have an English test Monday

Irish Steve

Hmmmmm..... Both RTE and ME have been caught out by the release of the RED status, they must have pre recorded the forecast, as they've not even mentioned the red, all they have said is "stay in touch", very low key, and completely out of touch with what's now on their web site. Not exactly impressive.

pilly

George Sunsnow wrote:

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

Not if nobody knows about the warnings!

outsourced_ire

Wow. They really skimmed over it all in that forecast!

George Sunsnow

So schools in the status red areas so far declared WILL be shut on Monday

JCX BXC

They still have a yellow warning icon on the RTE weather and no mention of the red warning whatsoever! Doesn't inspire confidence for those who hope for the TV weather completely up to date!

I expected at least for it to be mentioned on the TV weather. Plenty of time yet to warn people but still!

squarecircles

Atrocious,no reference to the RED ALERT on the RTE lunchtime weather bulletin.

JCX BXC

Arcady wrote: »

I'm booked to fly Dublin to Birmingham around 19:00 on Monday. I'm actually based in Cork, and would travel to Dublin by train or coach, so I'd be setting out about noon. Obviously the whole thing is really badly timed. Doh!

But can I ask you experts whether, given what can be reasonably foreseen, I should just throw in the towel at this point, and resign myself to the flight being cancelled? If that's the case, I'd be much better off staying home in Cork city. If there are going to be mass cancellations on Monday, anybody got a sense of when official notification might be issued?

I know it's all probabilities, but you guys are much better equipped to estimate them than I am, and I'd really appreciate any informed advice.

I had a post about this yesterday, quite far back though.

Basically I'd put off the decision until tomorrow evening, or even Monday morning. We simply don't know what wind will be like at specific locations yet!

pilly

antodeco wrote:

Status red and not s pickle on Rte. I'm so glad all the general public use met.ie. FFS rte, update!

Not even a mention on the news.

pp_me

stevek93 wrote: »

I am a bit spooked with this storm to be fair debating whether to call into work sick on Monday what is others thinking?

Working from home hopefully. Couldnt leave the poor dog out in the back garden all day.. Could I?

stevek93

I am a bit spooked with this storm to be fair debating whether to call into work sick on Monday what is others thinking?