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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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ascophyllum

Irish Steve wrote: »

Those sorts of sustained and gust speeds have the potential to move more substantial things like oil tanks if there's not much oil in them, given that the direction will not be the normal west of south quadrant, so people in the red area may want to check to see if there's a risk of tanks being moved by this one.

Exactly, the wind is forecast to be East and South East for most of the stronger affected areas on Monday, I think people will get a surprise to have storm force from that direction, many doorways, shed openings etc. face east, as do many sheltered harbours on the west coast.

Calina

Deleted User wrote: »

At 10 am.

That is a stunning image. I don't suppose prints of these things can be got commercially?

Aside from that I am in central Europe so well out of harm's way but with family and friend concerns. Will be watching what plays out.

Irish Steve

The more significant aspect of the red and orange warning for me is the potential time period, the start is now somewhat earlier, and it has the possibility of running overnight into Tuesday early hours, which seems to be a spread compared to what was happening. Will be interesting to see how this is mentioned in the lunch time forecast shortly.

As to why, we'll have to wait for the later updates to see what's triggered the updates and upgrades. Hopefully now, this will at least damp down the level of trolling posts that have been happening.

Those sorts of sustained and gust speeds have the potential to move more substantial things like oil tanks if there's not much oil in them, given that the direction will not be the normal west of south quadrant, so people in the red area may want to check to see if there's a risk of tanks being moved by this one.

__..__

Den Creed wrote: »

A Jesus, and its bin day on Monday in Kerry as well

For Gods sake man, dont put the bins out. We dont want your rubbish in Cork.

mickmackey1

__..__ wrote: »

Thanks.
I think its secure enough though. Didnt come out during Desmod, so im going to trust my handywork for this one too.
I would be more worried about the trees though.

That username made me smile

antodeco

Status red and not s pickle on Rte. I'm so glad all the general public use met.ie. FFS rte, update!

__..__

iguana wrote: »

Move it into as sheltered a spot as you can, take the safety nets down and drive crowbars over the legs like giant tent pegs. That's secured it for me through the storms of the last few winters.

Thanks.
I think its secure enough though. Didnt come out during Desmod, so im going to trust my handywork for this one too.
I would be more worried about the trees though.

Arcady

I'm booked to fly Dublin to Birmingham around 19:00 on Monday. I'm actually based in Cork, and would travel to Dublin by train or coach, so I'd be setting out about noon. Obviously the whole thing is really badly timed. Doh!

But can I ask you experts whether, given what can be reasonably foreseen, I should just throw in the towel at this point, and resign myself to the flight being cancelled? If that's the case, I'd be much better off staying home in Cork city. If there are going to be mass cancellations on Monday, anybody got a sense of when official notification might be issued?

I know it's all probabilities, but you guys are much better equipped to estimate them than I am, and I'd really appreciate any informed advice.

Coax

flaneur wrote: »

In hindsight I think I will batten down the hatches and net over the skip that’s outside. Anyone got any idea wheee you can get netting?

Company that supplied the skip will have them.

They are supposed to put them over them if transporting them with anything that could fly out. So they should be able to sort you out.

Akrasia

907 now

mickmackey1

905 posts for something that may not happen? wtf

Akrasia

davo2001 wrote: »

Serious, yes, but massive cap locks serious, no.

People just need to take nesessary precautions and not get carried away (pun intended).

DO not, I repeat DO NOT
leave your washing on the line on Monday.

server down

jasper100 wrote: »

Exactly, until Met Eireann issue warning this stuff is merely speculative and hypothetical.

In the event that specific counties get a level 3 warning tomorrow there is plenty of time tomorrow to tidy away trampolines and wheelie bins, move cars away from trees etc.

If you don’t like the idea that a weather thread about an event - with its many experts - gives earlier warnings than Met.ie why are you on the thread? Just rely on Met.ie

davo2001

squarecircles wrote: »

!!!!!!!RED ALERT ISSUED! BY MET EIREANN
THIS JUST GOT SERIOUS!!!!

Galway mayo Clare cork and Kerry.

Serious, yes, but massive cap locks serious, no.

People just need to take nesessary precautions and not get carried away (pun intended).

squarecircles

!!!!!!!RED ALERT ISSUED! BY MET EIREANN
THIS JUST GOT SERIOUS!!!!

GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 130KMH

Galway mayo Clare cork and Kerry.

ORANGE WARNING REST OF THE COUNTRY.

pad199207

Meireann have gone straight to RED!

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:Saturday 14 October 2017 12:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for The rest of the country
Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between of 110 and 130km/h are expected, however some inland areas may not be quite as severe. The winds have potential to cause structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:Saturday 14 October 2017 12:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
On Monday, an Atlantic storm from the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will move northwards close to Ireland. There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the exact track and evolution of the storm. However, storm force winds, heavy rain and high seas are threatened. Met Eireann will continue to monitor this storm and will issue appropriate warnings as required.

Issued:Friday 13 October 2017 08:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 06:00

iguana

__..__ wrote: »

Trampoline is too big to dismantle.
Im going to leave it out for the craic. Test to see how good i set it up.
If its gone at least it will give me some more space in the garden.

Move it into as sheltered a spot as you can, take the safety nets down and drive crowbars over the legs like giant tent pegs. That's secured it for me through the storms of the last few winters.

RoisinClare6

It's like a summers day here at the minute.

Its cool seeing all the different charts and graphics. Its quite interesting

Den Creed

firemansam4 wrote: »

Looks like Kerry are getting it bad either way....

A Jesus, and its bin day on Monday in Kerry as well

[Deleted User]

pad199207 wrote: »

Jaysus now that is one for the books! :eek:

Yep. Not often you get a hurricane and Ireland in the same frame.

Kermit.de.frog

It's tricky with this one. We are on that margin between some severe weather and typical winter storm.

Some models show more benign conditions than others. We are not there yet in terms of knowing exact intensity.

I don't think red warnings are warranted but certainly amber in the southwest at least would be right for now.

It's then a case of monitoring developments in the next day or so.

MT and everyone here has done a great job too in my opinion.

fryup

Deleted User wrote: »

At 10 am.

thats nearly the same position as yesterday, its moving very slowly

..at this rate it'll be this day next week before it hits us

firemansam4

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Just to give an idea of what a difference a slight change in track makes, here's two hi res models, one showing a SW/NE track giving severe gusts right across the centre of the country but just a blustery day in Connemara and Mayo with gusts of 70-90kph. The second one shows a more direct southerly track which gives Connemara and Mayo severe gusts above 140kph so almost twice as strong

Looks like Kerry are getting it bad either way....

Donegal Storm

Just to give an idea of what a difference a slight change in track makes, here's two hi res models, one showing a SW/NE track giving severe gusts right across the centre of the country but just a blustery day in Connemara and Mayo with gusts of 70-90kph. The second one shows a more direct southerly track which gives Connemara and Mayo severe gusts above 140kph so almost twice as strong

pad199207

Deleted User wrote: »

At 10 am.

Jaysus now that is one for the books! :eek:

[Deleted User]

At 10 am.

pad199207

Waiting with such suspense to see what Met Eireann do with the warnings....

firemansam4

Interesting:

Quote NHC Discussion page:

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

Ophelia's 20-nmi-diameter eye has continued to become more distinct
and cloud-free, with the eye temperature now reaching 15 deg C.
Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from TAFB to
T5.0/90 kt from SAB and T5.5/102 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. For now, the
initial intensity will remain at 85 kt, which is an average of the
available intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 060/21 kt. Ophelia is embedded within
deep-layer southwesterly flow on the east side of a broad
mid-latitude trough. The global and regional models remain in
excellent agreement on the trough amplifying over the next 3-4 days,
which will cause the hurricane to accelerate toward the northeast at
forward speeds near 30 kt by 48 hours. The tight clustering of the
NHC model guidance, which shows very little cross-track or
along-track spread, increases the confidence in the official track.
As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and TVCX consensus models.

Ophelia is expected to remain in relatively low vertical wind shear
environment for the next 12 hours or so, which should help the
hurricane retain much of its current intensity during that time,
even though SSTs are only going to be 24-25C. However, upper-level
temperatures that are still about 2 deg C cooler than normal, which
will help to create sufficient instability to continue to drive the
development of inner-core convection. By 36 hours or so, the shear
is forecast to increase to 30-40 kt and the troposphere is expected
to become stable as sea-surface temperatures decrease to less than
20 deg C. However, even those SST values are about 2 deg C warmer
than normal for this time of the year. Those above-average ocean
temperatures are forecast to combine with strong baroclinic energy
associated with a potent, negatively tilted, upper-level trough,
causing Ophelia to transition into a powerful extratropical low
pressure system. By 48 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast
to maintain sustained hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland, with stronger winds expected over higher terrain.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96
hours, Ophelia should have weakened due to the interaction with
land, causing the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and
dissipation is expected shortly thereafter.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another 48-60 hours, wind and rain effects will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front.
However, any track deviation to the west could bring stronger winds
associated with Ophelia's circulation to those islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 33.9N 28.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 35.3N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 38.3N 20.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/0600Z 48.4N 12.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/0600Z 57.4N 6.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z 63.1N .5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

dm09

Question - My cat likes Whiskas but if there's a gale blowing above 30kts she'll only eat tuna .
If I have 3 cats and one pony and it's upgraded to level orange , how many cans of tuna will I need to buy if I'm living above 50'N ?

*Just kidding , Great thread guys :-D

luimneachboy

jasper100 wrote: »

Exactly, until Met Eireann issue warning this stuff is merely speculative and hypothetical.

In the event that specific counties get a level 3 warning tomorrow there is plenty of time tomorrow to tidy away trampolines and wheelie bins, move cars away from trees etc.

Theres a few posters here that got darwin spot on and met eireann didnt!! Personally id go with their advice before met eireann