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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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floatwinner

power pants wrote: »

I'm in Dublin, will there be snow as my kids will be disappointed if there is not. It's not fair everywhere gets snow but Dublin never does. Hopefully we get a good covering on Monday!!

This is why there should be no chat on this thread.

fraxinus1

I have made preparations for this storm but I still feel that it won't be anymore different than a normal Irish autumn gale. If it were going to be as severe as many on here suggest, Met Eireann would have issued the necessary alerts by now. I'm not saying that some areas won't experience a good blast but talk of surges and disruption seem a bit dramatic. A friend's son works in the county council here and they have heard nothing about it at this stage and sure they get warned if there's going to be an inch of snow yet not a word about this supposed severe storm. Something isn't right about all this.

flaneur

I assume that the system has lost energy as it went over cooler waters ?

Meteorite58

power pants wrote: »

I'm in Dublin, will there be snow as my kids will be disappointed if there is not. It's not fair everywhere gets snow but Dublin never does. Hopefully we get a good covering on Monday!!

MOD NOTE: INFRACTION FOR TROLLING.

fryup

the hurricane seems to be in the same position as yesterday just off the Canaries ?

what speed is it moving at?

George Sunsnow

highdef wrote: »

Say you live at 200m, does this mean that those wind speeds apply to you, if not even higher speeds?

Higher and depending on terrain higher still
It all depends on where this goes and gusts
Darwin had a different track but did a lot of damage in Kilkenny,which is definitely not coastal
This is a stronger storm

xii

Nearly cancled a trip over this thread, non event... lets drop title to a level 1 and delete 70 pages of nonsense.

rossie1977

fryup wrote: »

the hurricane seems to be in the same position as yesterday just off the Canaries ?

what speed is it moving at?

It was moving at 3 mph

pad199207

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Higher and depending on terrain higher still
It all depends on where this goes and gusts
Darwin had a different track but did a lot of damage in Kilkenny,which is definitely not coastal
This is a stronger storm

Well 159KPH at Shannon from Darwin will take a lot to beat.

Current charts show Ophelia will overtop that figure! Interesting times ahead.

Lumi

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

squarecircles

Would it be possible to have a thread opened for technical discussion,charts etc only, no chatting,arguing,trolling etc ?

Pwindedd

__..__ wrote: »

Trampoline is too big to dismantle.
Im going to leave it out for the craic. Test to see how good i set it up.
If its gone at least it will give me some more space in the garden.

If you take the net and bed off its just a frame. Nothing for the wind to pick up then. You'd hate yourself if it hurt someone or damaged property - especially your own

Reckless Abandonment

flaneur wrote: »

I assume that the system has lost energy as it went over cooler waters ?

Not yet. I think it's all about the track of it now . Shes coming .Force 9/10 the west can handle, but that will do a lot of damage on the east coast. Trees are still in leaf mostly.

It's fascinating watching this unfold. If nothing else we'll get to see a hurricane or a hurricane fall apart on our shores . Can't remember ever saying that before.

George Sunsnow

pad199207 wrote: »

Well 159KPH at Shannon from Darwin will take a lot to beat.

Current charts show Ophelia will overtop that figure! Interesting times ahead.

Aye it has plenty of potential to top that
But remember that there were probably plenty places even during Darwin that topped that but we don’t know because official wind stations are too scattered and very far between

The impact depends on its exact track

cherryghost

Moving 24mph now so its caught in the stream, still sustained winds 100mph so high Cat 2. That's 24hrs of sustained 24hr winds, as expected. About 12 hours until it starts receding and soon after downgraded to Cat 1.

km79

I like many here just assumed it would be downgraded. That not happening is it.......

George Sunsnow

km79 wrote: »

I like many here just assumed it would be downgraded. That not happening is it.......

It will weaken but interaction with the jetstream will power it up again

luimneachboy

jasper100 wrote: »

this won't be any worse than usual winter storms in Ireland.

How can you make this assumption when most of the general comments from people who know what they are on about seem to say we are in for a big wind event.

Drumpot

I live in an estate in Bettystown with few trees but flooding issues. The council are actually building a flood relief tank as a solution. Normally an unusually high tide and persistent rain can cause flooding, does this storm look more windy then wet?

Also, what is a level 3 warning? Is that the highest warning possible? If you stay at home , should you be relatively safe? I’m currently getting my attic converted and while they have the reinforced steel installed and windows , I am a bit concerned that high winds could be an issue.

Lastly, my mum is prob going to be going into hospital in Dublin on Monday morning. Am I reading the graphs right that it won’t be Monday afternoon or evening before things potentially start getting bad?

And to add my sentiments, thank you so much for all the knowledge, answers and advice. I have emailed and text people links to this thread because it’s been so informative.

pad199207

luimneachboy wrote: »

How can you make this assumption when most of the general comments from people who know what they are on about seem to say we are in for a big wind event.

Dont feed it man

squarecircles

It would be entertaining now if we had a weather channel in Ireland,we could have somebody standing on a beach in a rain coat,just that we lack the melodrama and pomp of Americans.

We need Teresa mannion all over this one.

Cantona's Collars

Even a stiff gust at this time of year causes branches to fall,with a major storm a lot of people are in for a shock with flying debris. One of the stupidest things I saw during Darwin was a fella walking his dog along a tree lined back road as boughs were snapping and raining down. I had to drive that road and couldn't wait to get off it.No matter how many warnings are given,some people will still do dumb sh1t.

firemansam4

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Again, this chart probability refers to 1-minute GALE Force (34 knots) and higher, not only Beaufort STORM Force 10. This is the problem with the NHC'S classification. For them a tropical "storm" is anything with winds above 34 knots (1-minute mean), which is just a gale for us.

There are 2 other models showing probabilities of higher wind speeds:

firemansam4

kilkenny31

squarecircles wrote: »

It would be entertaining now if we had a weather channel in Ireland,we could have somebody standing on a beach in a rain coat,just that we lack the melodrama and pomp of Americans.

Do we?

News-reporter-Teresa-Mannion-battles-through-stormy-conditions-to-deliver-her-weather-report-624814.jpg

flaneur

In hindsight I think I will batten down the hatches and net over the skip that’s outside. Anyone got any idea wheee you can get netting?

squarecircles

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Do we?

Were getting there,slowly

Who's the southern correspondent for RTE,Damien Tiernan? can't imagine him getting excited,his reporting is very subdued.

__..__

squarecircles wrote: »

It would be entertaining now if we had a weather channel in Ireland,we could have somebody standing on a beach in a rain coat,just that we lack the melodrama and pomp of Americans.

We need Teresa mannion all over this one.

We do have someone like that here. I say get the cameras and send her out.

Edit. Beaten to it already.

Gaoth Laidir

firemansam4 wrote: »

There are 2 other models showing probabilities of higher wind speeds:

Yes, so Cat 1 winds looking unlikely at the moment based on that.

firemansam4

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Here's Met reann's ECMWF chart for Monday, showing "only" force 9-10 in the south.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

I've seen worse many times on this page, but I wouldn't put too much trust in this yet..