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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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star gazer

On Monday, there is a high risk of stormy weather developing. Current indications suggest that Ex Hurricane Ophelia will track northwards close to the west coast of Ireland, with the threat of storm force winds, heavy rain and very high seas during Monday and Monday night. Winds will be strongest on south and west coasts with severe gusts possible. Rain will be heaviest in the south and west with localised flooding possible, especially along the south coast. The storm will move away to the north overnight.

Met Eireann forecast

Kilkenny36

Living close to Waterford City. How bad is it likely to be? Again thanks everybody for the great information.

George Sunsnow

Kilkenny36 wrote: »

Living close to Waterford City. How bad is it likely to be? Again thanks everybody for the great information.

Within 5 to 10 km’s of the coast,in rural exposed parts there pretty bad
Prepare for power cuts and if it doesn’t pan out as bad count yourself lucky

Gaoth Laidir

00Z ECMWF winds for 100 metres , not the standard 10 metres. Pink shows Force 9-11, gold Force 12.

Wanderer78

George Sunsnow wrote:

Within 5 to 10 kmâ€™s of the coast,in rural exposed parts there pretty bad Prepare for power cuts and if it doesnâ€™t pan out as bad count yourself lucky

I'm preparing to go watch the big waves

mel.b

Discodog wrote: »

Plus our buildings are low & block construction. The real damage will be from trees & blowing debris. People should try to park their car in a sheltered spot & make sure that there is nothing to blow around like wheelie bins.

Arghh, this just me realise that our bins are collected on Monday and they are always done later in the day

Kilkenny36

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Within 5 to 10 km’s of the coast,in rural exposed parts there pretty bad
Prepare for power cuts and if it doesn’t pan out as bad count yourself lucky

Thanks for your reply. I'm about 20km from the coast so im guessing it wont be too bad.

star gazer

The track is bad for Ireland, keep up to date with Met Eireann and official advice locally.

server down

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

00Z ECMWF winds for 100 metres , not the standard 10 metres. Pink shows Force 9-11, gold Force 12.

It looks like the storm dissipates a bit over Ireland. However those images are 6 hours apart and it shows force 12 off the coast in the first one. Are we missing an image where force 12 hits the country or will that not happen?

HeidiHeidi

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'm preparing to go watch the big waves

I hate to state the bleedin' obvious - but from a safe distance I hope.

Please don't endanger other lives by putting yourself in risky places to see a few waves.

(and apologies if my irony-meter needs adjusting)

Oneiric 3

Chart showing Hurricane Debby approaching the SW of Ireland back in September 1961:

lucernarian

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Chart showing Hurricane Debby approaching the SW of Ireland back in September 1961:

Good find! Where did you get that chart from? Presumably a reanalysis with ECMWF-like stylings and colours.

Jpmarn

We are getting conflicting reports on how bad this storm would be. The worst case model suggests Cat 1 hurricane conditions. Other models suggest barely sustained gale force winds with gusts barely into storm force in the Limerick City area. We're anticipating a storm on Monday. We don't know how bad it going to be. Just to say some areas may receive substantial damages and power outages while nearby could be relatively unscathed. There will be probably less cows than usual getting milked on Monday evening.

[Deleted User]

How common are hurricanes that form in the East Atlantic and track directly towards us?

I know we have had the tail ends of gulf hurricanes before and I've seen east atlantic hurricanes head westwards but I cant recall the present scenario before?

star gazer

Stunning image

Gaoth Laidir

star gazer wrote: »

The track is bad for Ireland, keep up to date with Met Eireann and official advice locally.

Again, this chart probability refers to 1-minute GALE Force (34 knots) and higher, not only Beaufort STORM Force 10. This is the problem with the NHC'S classification. For them a tropical "storm" is anything with winds above 34 knots (1-minute mean), which is just a gale for us.

Gaoth Laidir

server down wrote: »

It looks like the storm dissipates a bit over Ireland. However those images are 6 hours apart and it shows force 12 off the coast in the first one. Are we missing an image where force 12 hits the country or will that not happen?

Remember, that's at 100 metres. To translate that down to 10 metres we'd need to take off anything from 5-10%, depending on terrain.

Video

what do we need to do to prepare for this and be safe? what kind of damage can this wind do, to be honest im quaking in my boots as we live in an old house.

power pants

I'm in Dublin, will there be snow as my kids will be disappointed if there is not. It's not fair everywhere gets snow but Dublin never does. Hopefully we get a good covering on Monday!!

jasper100

Video wrote: »

what do we need to do to prepare for this and be safe? what kind of damage can this wind do, to be honest im quaking in my boots as we live in an old house.

this won't be any worse than usual winter storms in Ireland.

highdef

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Remember, that's at 100 metres. To translate that down to 10 metres we'd need to take off anything from 5-10%, depending on terrain.

Say you live at 200m, does this mean that those wind speeds apply to you, if not even higher speeds?

coillsaille

power pants wrote: »

I'm in Dublin, will there be snow as my kids will be disappointed if there is not. It's not fair everywhere gets snow but Dublin never does. Hopefully we get a good covering on Monday!!

I was wondering when you'd appear..

George Sunsnow

Kilkenny36 wrote: »

Thanks for your reply. I'm about 20km from the coast so im guessing it wont be too bad.

I would not say that exactly
Do not under or overestimate what this storm might do
If it’s path varies it can make a huge difference in areas affected!

Larbre34

power pants wrote: »

I'm in Dublin, will there be snow as my kids will be disappointed if there is not. It's not fair everywhere gets snow but Dublin never does. Hopefully we get a good covering on Monday!!

I do hope you leave your patio furniture out. Seeing it come thru the windows will entertain your kids no end.

whippet

I’m on the Louth coast and lost the trampoline last year so thankfully one less thing to worry about.

My only problem could be trees down and high tide more or less making me an island for a day or so

Gaoth Laidir

Here's Met Éireann's ECMWF chart for Monday, showing "only" force 9-10 in the south.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

peasant

Video wrote: »

what do we need to do to prepare for this and be safe? what kind of damage can this wind do, to be honest im quaking in my boots as we live in an old house.

Put everything away outside that could go flying, secure things that are loose, check nearby trees for branches that could potentially impact your house and cut them, if possible.

Once the storm comes, keep all windows and doors closed...support wonky ones with braces if necessary.

Remember, even though the storm itself is moving south to north, the winds around it are circular, so at some time during its passage the gusts could come from any and all directions i.e. there will be no side of the house that will be more sheltered than others. (no point just moving the garden chairs from front to back)

__..__

Larbre34 wrote: »

I do hope you leave your patio furniture out. Seeing it come thru the windows will entertain your kids no end.

Trampoline is too big to dismantle.
Im going to leave it out for the craic. Test to see how good i set it up.
If its gone at least it will give me some more space in the garden.

Rikand

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

^^ if we could sticky that sentence to top of every page, it would preemptively answer a lot of questions

flaneur

I’m confused. Do I just ignore the non met Éireann reports that seem to be indicating a very serious storm?

I was considering cancellation of an event on Monday.