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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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TheMilkyPirate

All the talk of met eireann is a bit tiresome tbh. Thread is much more interesting discussing the actual storm/model discussion. I find myself skimming through 60% of the posts.

Met Eireann will put out their warnings when they see fit nothing we say will change that.

4068ac1elhodqr

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

12Z ECMWF wind forecast (but for 100 m amsl, not the surface).

18Z Monday

That's interesting (if accurate), showing a movement of 9-11 from W to the heavily populated SE & E coast.

Can remember hearing on the radio during the last significant storm (severe gales only) of an upturned truck on the M1. You could almost guarantee that with this one, if it moves anywhere near the M1.

ronnie3585

^^

Amazing! It's not too often you see a defined eye within striking distance of Ireland!

Mech1

OK, Time for my unashamed advertising of my Liveatc feed!

This type of event usually pushes the listener numbers of my feed way up, it takes a while to get to understand the lingo but its easy and interesting when you do.

Any questions about air traffic should be directed to here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057555939&page=122

PLEASE DONT BLOCK UP THIS WEATHER THREAD WITH AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS

You can listen in to live air traffic control from Dublin airport via my rooftop antenna by clicking on here:https://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw

and you can watch a live radar picture of the aircraft by clicking on here: https://www.flightradar24.com/52.43,-5.07/7

If (and it may well do so) My antenna comes down during this event, people have donated previously and we have another antenna that we can deploy so if the feed goes down keep checking as it may well come back.

Keep Safe everyone and enjoy what you can of the weather situation.

Meteorite58

This afternoon.

m9WuObF.jpg?1

Gaoth Laidir

12Z ECMWF wind forecast (but for 100 m amsl, not the surface).

12Z Monday. Hurricane-force winds golden shades. Force 9-11 winds pink shades.

18Z Monday

00Z Tuesday

The heaviest rainfall is on the western half, well out to sea.

pad199207

Comhra wrote: »

I have often noticed that the most vociferous critics of Met Eireann and other professional forecasters are usually those with the least amount of knowledge and understanding of meteorology, climate and other things scientific.

As the saying goes...it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak (or post here) and remove all doubt.

Nobody is criticizing Met Eireann. They are going about this the right way. At least in my view anyway.

It’s just the critics afterwards who said it didn’t happen or the “what was the point in a orange or red warning” brigade who annoy quite a few.

Upgrade and downgrade warnings as the conditions see fit.

Meteorite58

The 12Z GFS Gust Chart looks like an upgrade to me and keeping quite close to the coast.

Coax

Storm 10 wrote: »

Can anyone post the email from Bus Eireann re school transport if red warning is issued, I did not get one

I can't copy the text from the email unfortunately but it points to this page on their website

http

/ww w.bus eireann.ie/inner.php?id=424

I can't post images or links but take out the spaces in the above and you have the link.

Larbre34

My family in Tampa Bay are ripping the p*ss out of me being concerned about a Hurricane as I speak. They drove a 2,000 mile round trip recently for their evacuation and all they ended up with wasa broken section of gutter!

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can you imagine yourself before this ever saying something like that?:D

Yeah, we should be expecting more from our hurricane seasons. It's only Cat 1. Shocking.

Bring on this global warming!

Comhrá

I have often noticed that the most vociferous critics of Met Eireann and other professional forecasters are usually those with the least amount of knowledge and understanding of meteorology, climate and other things scientific.

As the saying goes...it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak (or post here) and remove all doubt.

Gaoth Laidir

I prefer the JTWC track chart as it shows the wind radii. The outermost ring is 34-knots and the next inside that is 50 knots. We can see at 12Z Monday 34-knot (gale-force) winds extending as far as Ulster (but of course well inland will not experience this), and 50-knots clipping the far southwest. It shows no 64-knot (hurricane-force) radius.

al172017.17101306.gif

Here is the text for the same time.

72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 51.0N 11.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 25 KTS

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

it may not even be a Cat 1

Can you imagine yourself before this ever saying something like that?:D

Yeah, we should be expecting more from our hurricane seasons. It's only Cat 1. Shocking.

Meteorite58

12Z Icon Gust chart more or less the same

Meteorite58

12Z ECM is keeping more or less to its previous track , 12Z APERGE is gone much more to the W

EJAzai7.gif?1

MJohnston

I think all these posts about which warning level we should be seeing really highlight that the warning system needs a slight bit more nuance to it. I really like what MTC is doing in his posts by providing a probability that a particular level of warning is likely to be seen.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »

Some models show IOM getting some nasty winds, but perhaps a little later in the day on Monday. Prop planes and windy days, never much fun.

Thanks for answer

mikeymouse

vapor trails wrote: »

The National Meteorological Service who cried Red warning one of my favorite childhood bedtime stories

Michael Fish 30 years ago this weekend:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs
You know what happened next,

Kilnababe

Storm 10 wrote: »

Can anyone post the email from Bus Eireann re school transport if red warning is issued, I did not get one

I believe it's on the terms and conditions that come with the bus ticket. Thanks to all the techs for their input.

DOCARCH

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In other words, credibility.

T'is a fragile thing.

Exactly....

People have to bear in mind that this hurricane, at the moment, is approx. 2,500km from Ireland, and it's a relatively small hurricane in a very big ocean.

Models are just models....the hurricane (and weather generally) will do whet if feels like!

It could do anything in the next 48 hours. When it hits the colder water it could just fizzle out very quickly, or shoot off up the mid-Atlantic.

For ME to issue red warnings there needs to be a lot more certainty.

However, public awareness is the name of the game now to explain what is happening and that potentially a red warning may be issued.

Reckless Abandonment

sdanseo wrote: »

I have to agree with comments regarding Met Éireann's handling of this - it has been absolutely spot on. A few years ago on this forum it was hard to find a good word said about them but in recent times their reputation seems to have been climbing now to the point of almost universal acceptance that they do as good a job as could be expected.

Never realised until recently, but it's actually a very small organisation. The forecasting division only has around 30 staff.

As for Ophelia herself, she looks like she's pissed at us for some reason. Even the UK are tetering on the edge of an Orange warning 3 days out:

Good point. They are much more open to speak about potential bad/good weather etc. Coming our way. I remember 2010 M.T. had been going on about cold and snow for a week or two, not a word M.E. until I was stuck on the m50 for 2 hours . I could be wrong, but I feel they keep an eye in here to see what we're all giving out about.

MJohnston

DOCARCH wrote: »

They also have to consider that if they blindly call a red warning and the weather is not severe, the next time they have a red warning nobody will take any notice!

It's really a fine balancing act!

There is no certainty at this point that the weather will be anything other than (usual/normal) wet and windy on Monday.

I genuinely think this thing about people not taking heed because of previous overcooked warnings is really not correct. Our brains are wired to remember things that cause us harm (like storms actually hitting), and we don’t really remember positive stuff (like forecasts being wrong and getting a bit of light wind instead). If a false warning causes you financial loss or worse, then you’d probably remember it for sure, but the vast majority of people will grumble about it for a week and then forget.

Gaoth Laidir

I can't believe people are already criticising ME's actions 3 days out with still a lot of uncertainty, but then again it is typical to see this happpen. When they issue a warning it's usually for specific counties, but this far out it's impossible to finetune the detail. People are beginning to lose the run of themselves a bit I think. We're not in for a Cat 4 or 5, it may not even be a Cat 1, we don't know yet. Just hang on for a while and take it easy.

vapor trails

DOCARCH wrote: »

They also have to consider that if they blindly call a red warning and the weather is not severe, the next time they have a red warning nobody will take any notice!

It's really a fine balancing act!

There is no certainty at this point that the weather will be anything other than (usual/normal) wet and windy on Monday.

The National Meteorological Service who cried Red warning one of my favorite childhood bedtime stories

sdanseo

I have to agree with comments regarding Met Éireann's handling of this - it has been absolutely spot on. A few years ago on this forum it was hard to find a good word said about them but in recent times their reputation seems to have been climbing now to the point of almost universal acceptance that they do as good a job as could be expected.

Never realised until recently, but it's actually a very small organisation. The forecasting division only has around 30 staff.

As for Ophelia herself, she looks like she's pissed at us for some reason. Even the UK are tetering on the edge of an Orange warning 3 days out:

Gaoth Laidir

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

I asked earlier but flying on a propeller plane from dub to isle of man on Monday at 9.25am will it have hit by then? What's the chances of the flight happening

No problem that early.

Storm 10

Can anyone post the email from Bus Eireann re school transport if red warning is issued, I did not get one

pad199207

Larbre34 wrote: »

Thats actually dead wrong. Red warnings are comparitively rare by definition, are linked to certainty of severe weather thresholds being exceeded. If they are abused, its like the boy who cried wolf.

They are correctly warning people to say in touch with forecasts over the weekend. If the worst case scenario bears out by Sunday, a red level warning will correctly issue and the authorities and media will all react accordingly to inform and advise. Nobody who works outside or at sea or who intends to travel will have less than 12 hours notice to take action. What more can be done?

Oh I completely agree with you that they are going about it the right way with telling people to closely monitor updates.

But they shouldn’t be too worried about issuing a red warning early in a setup like this. This is a damaging storm and possibly life threatening and to give people extra time to be properly prepared then so be it.

Kermit.de.frog

DOCARCH wrote: »

They also have to consider that if they blindly call a red warning and the weather is not severe, the next time they have a red warning nobody will take any notice!

It's really a fine balancing act!

There is no certainty at this point that the weather will be anything other than (usual/normal) wet and windy on Monday.

In other words, credibility.

T'is a fragile thing.