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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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__..__

So if it's a red warning will it be red for the whole country or just part of it.

DOCARCH

It's a dammed if they do, dammed if they don't situation.

If they issue a red warning too early, and the weather is not severe, there will be a public outcry!

DOCARCH

__..__ wrote: »

So if it's a red warning will it be red for the whole country or just part of it.

Too early to tell.

Donegal Storm

__..__ wrote: »

So if it's a red warning will it be red for the whole country or just part of it.

Anywhere with gusts above 130kph which at the moment looks to be southern and western coastal counties. Probably orange warning everywhere else. A slight shift in track is still possible though so it might yet just end up skirting the west coast or it could even hit Waterford and up the east coast with Cork and Kerry only seeing a breezy day. It'll be tomorrow evening/Sunday morning before we have a more confident idea on the exact track I'd say

pad199207

DOCARCH wrote: »

It's a dammed if they do, dammed if they don't situation.

If they issue a red warning too early, and the weather is not severe, there will be a public outcry!

Yeah well anyone out there who has a brain in their heads will understand the necessity of declaring a red warning early in a situation like this.

Turtwig

DOCARCH wrote: »

It's a dammed if they do, dammed if they don't situation.

If they issue a red warning too early, and the weather is not severe, there will be a public outcry!

It shouldn't be about the public reaction though. Their responsibility is the potential immediate threat and public safety. If they believe there exists potential for a serious risk then their reputation and the public's future perception of them shouldn't even come into consider. Find it kind of stark, how many people seem to think this is just going to be a "bit of wind" - which it might turn out to be - but it may not. It's the only wind they've experienced though. I wonder actually, how many readers in this thread experienced Debbie? It was long before most of our time?

Have to say though, the Met have handled this proportionately well so far, just think the weekend factor and the lack of a friday afternoon advisory may have been a misstep. If the storm was happening midweek and the warning went out on workdays then I'd say things would be far more cohesive than they might be this weekend. I expect a good deal of confusion come Sunday.

Reckless Abandonment

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah well anyone out there who has a brain in their heads will understand the necessity of declaring a red warning early in a situation like this.

?? What's early

Stephen Hawkins football boots

I asked earlier but flying on a propeller plane from dub to isle of man on Monday at 9.25am will it have hit by then? What's the chances of the flight happening

RoisinClare6

Went out earlier to go to the shop, threw on a coat. Was walking through the park in carlow and said to my boyfriend how eery it was out. It was extremely calm and warm with a very grey sky. It gave me the heebie jeebies. Walked back out of the shop and it was like walking into a warm blanket.

I dont know how bad it will be here if bad at all but when we got home, we made sure to root out the candles and things. Just to be sure.

4068ac1elhodqr

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Anywhere with gusts above 130kph which at the moment looks to be southern and western coastal counties. Probably orange warning everywhere else. A slight shift in track is still possible though so it might yet just end up skirting the west coast or it could even hit Waterford and up the east coast with Cork and Kerry only seeing a breezy day. It'll be tomorrow evening/Sunday morning before we have a more confident idea on the exact track I'd say

Aside from Cork-to-Donegal, the 130kph guests may later (on some models) sweep up the Irish Sea, probably unlikely to effect the main dense population centers, but any sea crossings (air or sea) could be very nasty.

pad199207

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

?? What's early

Early would be tomorrow.

The last time they issued a red warning was Darwin 2014 I think and they issued it a couple of hours before that sting jet roared across the country taking out the power of 245,000 people.

It’s better safe to be sorry

Larbre34

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah well anyone out there who has a brain in their heads will understand the necessity of declaring a red warning early in a situation like this.

Thats actually dead wrong. Red warnings are comparitively rare by definition, are linked to certainty of severe weather thresholds being exceeded. If they are abused, its like the boy who cried wolf.

They are correctly warning people to say in touch with forecasts over the weekend. If the worst case scenario bears out by Sunday, a red level warning will correctly issue and the authorities and media will all react accordingly to inform and advise. Nobody who works outside or at sea or who intends to travel will have less than 12 hours notice to take action. What more can be done?

Mikeymay2

Guys, not sure if this is the right place but can anybody tell me what is the protocol if one of my trees comes down over the roadway? Ive several big trees, they look healthy but still have all their leaves so if its really bad who knows what might happen. What should I do if one comes down?

Gaoth Laidir

Nice animation showing Total Precipitable Water over the past 24 hours. Note how the moisture is becoming sucked northwards away from Ophelia as the frontal feature approaches from the north. Note also the dry slot (blue) becoming entrained from the south and around the east and north of the storm. Its fuel supply from the south is beginning to run out so we should see it weaken soon. How much it weakens over the weekend before refiring again depends on its exact engagement with that frontal zone and the upper trough. Another 24 hours should tell a lot.

4068ac1elhodqr

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

I asked earlier but flying on a propeller plane from dub to isle of man on Monday at 9.25am will it have hit by then? What's the chances of the flight happening

Some models show IOM getting some nasty winds, but perhaps a little later in the day on Monday. Prop planes and windy days, never much fun.

DOCARCH

Turtwig wrote: »

It shouldn't be about the public reaction though.

They also have to consider that if they blindly call a red warning and the weather is not severe, the next time they have a red warning nobody will take any notice!

It's really a fine balancing act!

There is no certainty at this point that the weather will be anything other than (usual/normal) wet and windy on Monday.

pad199207

Larbre34 wrote: »

Thats actually dead wrong. Red warnings are comparitively rare by definition, are linked to certainty of severe weather thresholds being exceeded. If they are abused, its like the boy who cried wolf.

They are correctly warning people to say in touch with forecasts over the weekend. If the worst case scenario bears out by Sunday, a red level warning will correctly issue and the authorities and media will all react accordingly to inform and advise. Nobody who works outside or at sea or who intends to travel will have less than 12 hours notice to take action. What more can be done?

Oh I completely agree with you that they are going about it the right way with telling people to closely monitor updates.

But they shouldn’t be too worried about issuing a red warning early in a setup like this. This is a damaging storm and possibly life threatening and to give people extra time to be properly prepared then so be it.

Kermit.de.frog

DOCARCH wrote: »

They also have to consider that if they blindly call a red warning and the weather is not severe, the next time they have a red warning nobody will take any notice!

It's really a fine balancing act!

There is no certainty at this point that the weather will be anything other than (usual/normal) wet and windy on Monday.

In other words, credibility.

T'is a fragile thing.

Storm 10

Can anyone post the email from Bus Eireann re school transport if red warning is issued, I did not get one

Gaoth Laidir

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

I asked earlier but flying on a propeller plane from dub to isle of man on Monday at 9.25am will it have hit by then? What's the chances of the flight happening

No problem that early.

sdanseo

I have to agree with comments regarding Met Éireann's handling of this - it has been absolutely spot on. A few years ago on this forum it was hard to find a good word said about them but in recent times their reputation seems to have been climbing now to the point of almost universal acceptance that they do as good a job as could be expected.

Never realised until recently, but it's actually a very small organisation. The forecasting division only has around 30 staff.

As for Ophelia herself, she looks like she's pissed at us for some reason. Even the UK are tetering on the edge of an Orange warning 3 days out:

vapor trails

DOCARCH wrote: »

They also have to consider that if they blindly call a red warning and the weather is not severe, the next time they have a red warning nobody will take any notice!

It's really a fine balancing act!

There is no certainty at this point that the weather will be anything other than (usual/normal) wet and windy on Monday.

The National Meteorological Service who cried Red warning one of my favorite childhood bedtime stories

Gaoth Laidir

I can't believe people are already criticising ME's actions 3 days out with still a lot of uncertainty, but then again it is typical to see this happpen. When they issue a warning it's usually for specific counties, but this far out it's impossible to finetune the detail. People are beginning to lose the run of themselves a bit I think. We're not in for a Cat 4 or 5, it may not even be a Cat 1, we don't know yet. Just hang on for a while and take it easy.

MJohnston

DOCARCH wrote: »

They also have to consider that if they blindly call a red warning and the weather is not severe, the next time they have a red warning nobody will take any notice!

It's really a fine balancing act!

There is no certainty at this point that the weather will be anything other than (usual/normal) wet and windy on Monday.

I genuinely think this thing about people not taking heed because of previous overcooked warnings is really not correct. Our brains are wired to remember things that cause us harm (like storms actually hitting), and we don’t really remember positive stuff (like forecasts being wrong and getting a bit of light wind instead). If a false warning causes you financial loss or worse, then you’d probably remember it for sure, but the vast majority of people will grumble about it for a week and then forget.

Reckless Abandonment

sdanseo wrote: »

I have to agree with comments regarding Met Éireann's handling of this - it has been absolutely spot on. A few years ago on this forum it was hard to find a good word said about them but in recent times their reputation seems to have been climbing now to the point of almost universal acceptance that they do as good a job as could be expected.

Never realised until recently, but it's actually a very small organisation. The forecasting division only has around 30 staff.

As for Ophelia herself, she looks like she's pissed at us for some reason. Even the UK are tetering on the edge of an Orange warning 3 days out:

Good point. They are much more open to speak about potential bad/good weather etc. Coming our way. I remember 2010 M.T. had been going on about cold and snow for a week or two, not a word M.E. until I was stuck on the m50 for 2 hours . I could be wrong, but I feel they keep an eye in here to see what we're all giving out about.

DOCARCH

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In other words, credibility.

T'is a fragile thing.

Exactly....

People have to bear in mind that this hurricane, at the moment, is approx. 2,500km from Ireland, and it's a relatively small hurricane in a very big ocean.

Models are just models....the hurricane (and weather generally) will do whet if feels like!

It could do anything in the next 48 hours. When it hits the colder water it could just fizzle out very quickly, or shoot off up the mid-Atlantic.

For ME to issue red warnings there needs to be a lot more certainty.

However, public awareness is the name of the game now to explain what is happening and that potentially a red warning may be issued.

Kilnababe

Storm 10 wrote: »

Can anyone post the email from Bus Eireann re school transport if red warning is issued, I did not get one

I believe it's on the terms and conditions that come with the bus ticket. Thanks to all the techs for their input.

mikeymouse

vapor trails wrote: »

The National Meteorological Service who cried Red warning one of my favorite childhood bedtime stories

Michael Fish 30 years ago this weekend:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs
You know what happened next,

Stephen Hawkins football boots

Maddison Gray Wheelbarrow wrote: »

Some models show IOM getting some nasty winds, but perhaps a little later in the day on Monday. Prop planes and windy days, never much fun.

Thanks for answer

MJohnston

I think all these posts about which warning level we should be seeing really highlight that the warning system needs a slight bit more nuance to it. I really like what MTC is doing in his posts by providing a probability that a particular level of warning is likely to be seen.