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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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DOCARCH

Turtwig wrote: »

It shouldn't be about the public reaction though.

They also have to consider that if they blindly call a red warning and the weather is not severe, the next time they have a red warning nobody will take any notice!

It's really a fine balancing act!

There is no certainty at this point that the weather will be anything other than (usual/normal) wet and windy on Monday.

4068ac1elhodqr

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

I asked earlier but flying on a propeller plane from dub to isle of man on Monday at 9.25am will it have hit by then? What's the chances of the flight happening

Some models show IOM getting some nasty winds, but perhaps a little later in the day on Monday. Prop planes and windy days, never much fun.

Gaoth Laidir

Nice animation showing Total Precipitable Water over the past 24 hours. Note how the moisture is becoming sucked northwards away from Ophelia as the frontal feature approaches from the north. Note also the dry slot (blue) becoming entrained from the south and around the east and north of the storm. Its fuel supply from the south is beginning to run out so we should see it weaken soon. How much it weakens over the weekend before refiring again depends on its exact engagement with that frontal zone and the upper trough. Another 24 hours should tell a lot.

Mikeymay2

Guys, not sure if this is the right place but can anybody tell me what is the protocol if one of my trees comes down over the roadway? Ive several big trees, they look healthy but still have all their leaves so if its really bad who knows what might happen. What should I do if one comes down?

Larbre34

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah well anyone out there who has a brain in their heads will understand the necessity of declaring a red warning early in a situation like this.

Thats actually dead wrong. Red warnings are comparitively rare by definition, are linked to certainty of severe weather thresholds being exceeded. If they are abused, its like the boy who cried wolf.

They are correctly warning people to say in touch with forecasts over the weekend. If the worst case scenario bears out by Sunday, a red level warning will correctly issue and the authorities and media will all react accordingly to inform and advise. Nobody who works outside or at sea or who intends to travel will have less than 12 hours notice to take action. What more can be done?

pad199207

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

?? What's early

Early would be tomorrow.

The last time they issued a red warning was Darwin 2014 I think and they issued it a couple of hours before that sting jet roared across the country taking out the power of 245,000 people.

It’s better safe to be sorry

4068ac1elhodqr

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Anywhere with gusts above 130kph which at the moment looks to be southern and western coastal counties. Probably orange warning everywhere else. A slight shift in track is still possible though so it might yet just end up skirting the west coast or it could even hit Waterford and up the east coast with Cork and Kerry only seeing a breezy day. It'll be tomorrow evening/Sunday morning before we have a more confident idea on the exact track I'd say

Aside from Cork-to-Donegal, the 130kph guests may later (on some models) sweep up the Irish Sea, probably unlikely to effect the main dense population centers, but any sea crossings (air or sea) could be very nasty.

RoisinClare6

Went out earlier to go to the shop, threw on a coat. Was walking through the park in carlow and said to my boyfriend how eery it was out. It was extremely calm and warm with a very grey sky. It gave me the heebie jeebies. Walked back out of the shop and it was like walking into a warm blanket.

I dont know how bad it will be here if bad at all but when we got home, we made sure to root out the candles and things. Just to be sure.

Stephen Hawkins football boots

I asked earlier but flying on a propeller plane from dub to isle of man on Monday at 9.25am will it have hit by then? What's the chances of the flight happening

Reckless Abandonment

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah well anyone out there who has a brain in their heads will understand the necessity of declaring a red warning early in a situation like this.

?? What's early

Turtwig

DOCARCH wrote: »

It's a dammed if they do, dammed if they don't situation.

If they issue a red warning too early, and the weather is not severe, there will be a public outcry!

It shouldn't be about the public reaction though. Their responsibility is the potential immediate threat and public safety. If they believe there exists potential for a serious risk then their reputation and the public's future perception of them shouldn't even come into consider. Find it kind of stark, how many people seem to think this is just going to be a "bit of wind" - which it might turn out to be - but it may not. It's the only wind they've experienced though. I wonder actually, how many readers in this thread experienced Debbie? It was long before most of our time?

Have to say though, the Met have handled this proportionately well so far, just think the weekend factor and the lack of a friday afternoon advisory may have been a misstep. If the storm was happening midweek and the warning went out on workdays then I'd say things would be far more cohesive than they might be this weekend. I expect a good deal of confusion come Sunday.

pad199207

DOCARCH wrote: »

It's a dammed if they do, dammed if they don't situation.

If they issue a red warning too early, and the weather is not severe, there will be a public outcry!

Yeah well anyone out there who has a brain in their heads will understand the necessity of declaring a red warning early in a situation like this.

Donegal Storm

__..__ wrote: »

So if it's a red warning will it be red for the whole country or just part of it.

Anywhere with gusts above 130kph which at the moment looks to be southern and western coastal counties. Probably orange warning everywhere else. A slight shift in track is still possible though so it might yet just end up skirting the west coast or it could even hit Waterford and up the east coast with Cork and Kerry only seeing a breezy day. It'll be tomorrow evening/Sunday morning before we have a more confident idea on the exact track I'd say

DOCARCH

__..__ wrote: »

So if it's a red warning will it be red for the whole country or just part of it.

Too early to tell.

DOCARCH

It's a dammed if they do, dammed if they don't situation.

If they issue a red warning too early, and the weather is not severe, there will be a public outcry!

__..__

So if it's a red warning will it be red for the whole country or just part of it.

northgirl

UCC issued a warning to all staff this afternoon. Perhaps pre-emptive but better than not IMO.

Kermit.de.frog

NAVGEM

Coax

James Bond Junior wrote: »

I was trying to warn my principal today so she could send a precautionary text out now rsther than at 6am Monday morning and she basically said will you go away and stop trying to get a day off. People are underestimating what is potentially going to hit us.

My school took a good bit of time to get back to me but confirmed they will close if a red warning is issued. Can't get them to send a general text to this effect to all parents. Well at least I know they way they are planning it and have planned accordingly so which ever way it works out I'm covered without needing to take a day off work.

I'm in the same boat as yourself to be honest in regard to information, an advanced advisory text can allow parents to plan ahead. I'm still meeting people who either don't know about the weather potentially coming our way on Monday or those who say "it won't happen".

Really looking forward to the forecast over the next 36 - 48 hours and the development of this unfolding situation.

Donegal Storm

No change on the 12z Euro, if anything the isobars look a touch tighter but hard to tell. If we still have such broad agreement this time tomorrow then a red warning will be inevitable for the south west

munsterlegend

James Bond Junior wrote: »

I was trying to warn my principal today so she could send a precautionary text out now rsther than at 6am Monday morning and she basically said will you go away and stop trying to get a day off. People are underestimating what is potentially going to hit us.

You must not have said it suave enough. She'll be shaken not stirred!

I'll get my coat.

star gazer

Ophelia

Wunderground Plenty of reference to Ireland including historical events.
Jeff Masters was on rte six.one in a brief clip.

James Bond Junior

mel.b wrote: »

I work in a job where I have to visit schools and have two visits planned for Monday morning on the Clare coast. I rang the schools to see what the situation was if there was a red weather warning (likely for Clare I'd say) and they hadn't even thought about it!! This was 3pm this afternoon. I know I'd rather not be out on the road myself and actually rang the clients coming into me on Monday afternoon to let them know that if it was bad I will be cancelling their appts. We had a direct hit from Storm Darwin in Feb 2014 and i know I don't anyone out on the roads if it's going to be anything like that.

I was trying to warn my principal today so she could send a precautionary text out now rather than at 6am Monday morning and she basically said will you go away and stop trying to get a day off. People are underestimating what is potentially going to hit us.

Itssoeasy

Tazio wrote: »

Siobhan just called it on weather forecast

yeah the sentence "doesn't paint a pretty picture" meant to get people to sit up and take notice.

Soccarboy11

Met eireann just said it isn't good for Ireland. They are taking this pretty seriously!

Tazio

Siobhan just called it on weather forecast

fraxinus1

Spent the afternoon securing sheds and battening down anything that could get blown around. Candles and gas stove at the ready.

My mother who is 94 was talking today about Debbie in 1961 and that the 2 or 3 days beforehand were very humid,similar to today.

Wanderer78

JCX BXC wrote: »

What's the current position of the storm?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-21.46,42.12,1024/loc=-7.610,51.899

JCX BXC

What's the current position of the storm?

Coax

pad199207 wrote: »

My partners brother drives for Bus Eireann. He’s based in Mayo

Bus Eireann have sent email to school bus users (or their parents / guardians to be more exact) explaining the "Red means Stop" philosophy.

They explain that in the event of a Red warning being issued that school bus services will not operate in the areas covered by the red warning.

So unless Bus Eireann know something than Met Eireann don't the school bus service is still running at the moment