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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Itssoeasy

squarecircles wrote: »

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

I'm saying nothing until closer to the event. I'm not going to make a langer of myself if this misses us.

BillyBobBS

Will i take the washing in so?

pad199207

squarecircles wrote: »

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

I’ve already done that and got the usual “arra it won’t happen!”

PokeHerKing

squarecircles wrote:

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

Most rags and the internet beat you to it.

redsteveireland

squarecircles wrote: »

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

That counts for every event thread here.

Donegal Storm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Hang on so it's now a CAT 2 hurricane and the NHC have it as a hurricane over Ireland ?

Any of the experts here want to give any advice as to how this could change by Monday for the better for us ?

They have hurricane force winds over us but not a hurricane(once it changes to a white circle its no longer a hurricane), big difference in terms of rainfall and organisation of winds, even the wind is just about borderline category 1.

sdanseo

Comparison between the 4pm and 10pm forecasts:

Kalyke

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/hurricane.html

JanuarySnowstor

Looks like the nhc are thinking gfs has it too far West.....and not for the first time have they gone against the US model.

In fact the gfs has been very poor this Autumn

MJohnston

squarecircles wrote: »

Does anybody else have that urge to tell friends and family there could be a very significant storm coming,but you don't won't to end up looking a fool,if it doesn't come off.

I'll be warning my elderly neighbours to stock up on torches/candles anyway, or letting them know I'll have some if they need them. It doesn't take much to knock the power out and it's dark early this time of year. At least it should stay relatively warm.

sdanseo

Donegal Storm wrote: »

They have hurricane force winds over us but not a hurricane(once it changes to a white circle its no longer a hurricane), big difference in terms of rainfall and organisation of winds, even the wind is just about borderline category 1.

Thanks, you summed up the difference much better than my meandering nattering. Still though, 120km/h sustained winds is not to be sniffed at.

allthedoyles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOZloVnY2yM

M.T. Cranium

Ophelia to head straight for Hamlet states weatherman

scooby77

aisling86 wrote: »

If a level 3 warning is issued, do schools close? It wouldn't have been something I had to think about previous years....

"Status Red Weather Warning for Wind

Schools should note in particular Status Red weather warnings where strong winds or storm
conditions are forecasted. Due to the high degree of unpredictability as to the impact of the
weather associated with such a Status Red warning on local conditions schools should use the
following guidance to assist them in making their assessment.
Status Red weather warning for wind related conditions may be given in advance of a school
opening or it may arise during the day while a school is underway.

Advance Warning of Status Red
Following consultation at a national level with the Office of Emergency Planning and the
management bodies for schools, the Department of Education and Skills’ advice to schools is
that they should consider not opening where a Status Red weather warning related to wind is
forecast to coincide with the period/s during which students and staff would be expected to be
travelling to and from school.
Whether the school should open later in the day where an improvement to the weather is
forecast is a decision which should be taken in consultation with An Garda Síochána, the local
authorities, school transport services and other appropriate agencies based in the school’s area."
From Dept guidance in 2015. They rarely orders closure, but this as near as it gets!

JiffyJ

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Ophelia to head straight for Hamlet states weatherman

To be, or not to be. That is the question...

Kalyke

JiffyJ wrote: »

To be, or not to be. That is the question...

Soft you now,The fair Ophelia?

mikeecho

This weekend might be a good time to make a little emergency box for the house.
Torches /batteries/ candles etc. Sort out my camping stove and buy some water.

I've a well, so no power, means no water.

Or am I over reacting ?

Chicken Run

mikeecho wrote: »

This weekend might be a good time to make a little emergency box for the house.
Torches /batteries/ candles etc. Sort out my camping stove and buy some water.

I've a well, so no power, means no water.

Or am I over reacting ?

IMO you can never be too prepared....
(Plenty of biscuits too....)

fred funk }{

This shows just how bizarre this event is.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/918588394682437632

[Deleted User]

18Z GFS at +96 hrs. Still not playing ball with the other models it seems. Sending it on a more westerly track.

Meteorite58

You can see how Ophelia is sandwiched between two areas of HP, each area would help to give it rotation and the jet perfectly poised to steer it in towards us.

NOAA

km79

GO WEST there are no people there

ronnie3585

Deleted User wrote: »

Just sticking the 5pm (EDT) NHC chart in here as a screen shot for future reference. I've never seen a 'H' over Ireland before, even if it is showing the system as extra-tropical by then.

Mam's Mam remembered Debbie in 1961. She was in Westport in Co. Mayo at the time. Her abiding memory was the sheer amount of stuff flying around. Roof slates etc.

I live underneath that H:eek:

MJohnston

mikeecho wrote: »

This weekend might be a good time to make a little emergency box for the house.
Torches /batteries/ candles etc. Sort out my camping stove and buy some water.

I've a well, so no power, means no water.

Or am I over reacting ?

Imo always a good idea to have that kind of thing around, and one of those big 5l water bottles that you can store empty and fill just before any weather event is going to happen. None of it is perishable, and it doesn't take up a whole lot of room. Very rare that you'd have to use it in Ireland, but having it already beats having to rush out last minute to grab it, or not having it at all.

I remember I knew some families on the US East coast, and when they knew there was some heavy snowfall on the way, they'd fill the bathtubs with water, just in case!

xii

is it time to dust off Monopoly, and candles.

Harry Palmr

I'm torn between staying at home on Monday to keep an eye on things and going in to work, I'm starting to fear I could come back to a ruin!

Meteorite58

Deleted User wrote: »

18Z GFS at +96 hrs. Still not playing ball with the other models it seems. Sending it on a more westerly track.

It seems to me that it is a bit more E than the last run. The GFS is not showing winds as strong as the European models at this stage.

89lhH9R.gif?1

Spanish Eyes

Fire up the powerbanks. Get a few batteries for the torches, a few candles (and matches!), I never remember to have them. Water is unlikely to be cut off but no harm to get a few bottles anyway. Food that you can eat without cooking it. If you only have electricity that is.

That's my priority prepping!

Getting very worried now, but have to park it till Saturday. We might know more tomorrow though.

Thank you to all who have the knowledge to interpret all the charts, and the inside track and are keeping us posted. Will be keeping an eye on this thread.

Soccarboy11

So the general consensus is that Cork will get a hammering? Have a house in West cork, by Rosscarbery so wondering if I need to scrap my plans and go down there this weekend to tie everything down! Directly across from the Ocean in Owenahinca!

xii

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

So the general consensus is that Cork will get a hammering? Have a house in West cork, by Rosscarbery so wondering if I need to scrap my plans and go down there this weekend to tie everything down! Directly across from the Ocean in Owenahinca!

I think Japan will be OK.