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UFC/MMA Log 2017

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Here I go again to try and make amends for last years losing log which was -66 after 126 bets

Bet 1

rodriguez/ansaroff double @ 2.14 (1.28+1.66)
24 (returns 51.42)
Betway

I think the 1.28 on rodriguez is free money and hopefully this time penn will stay retired
Ansaroff should have a lot of improvement in her esp with nunes on top position on a daily basis, lybarger isn't very good either

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BET 79

maia pts 7/1
2
bet365

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BET 78

30 Jul 2017 - Kailin Curran v Alexandra Albu - Method of Result
Alexandra Albu By Submission @ 10/3
Stake : €8.00
Estimated Returns : €34.66

Double(s)
30 Jul 2017 - Jimi Manuwa v Volkan Oezdemir - Method of Result
Jimi Manuwa By KO/TKO/DQ @ EVS
30 Jul 2017 - Kailin Curran v Alexandra Albu - Method of Result
Alexandra Albu By Submission @ 10/3
Stake : €3.00
Estimated Returns : €26.00

curran is not ufc standard at all and will imo be either finished one way or another, hoping I've picked the right one.
Manuwa an obvious one but the price ain't great

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BET 77

albu round one 9/2
4

manuwa round two 11/2
2

robbie round three 14/1
4

2 treble
bet365

I've a gut feeling robbie could be down two rounds here and go head hunting in the third and maybe get a ko or he may well
finish cowboy in the first.....maybe even neither of course...if cowboy wins it's by points imo.

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BET 76

lamas pts 15/8
4

woodley pts 9/2
3

cormier pts 9/2
2

lawler ko 21/10
4

1 accum at big odds

woodley pts
lawler ko
lamas pts
2 treble (ret 98.04)

all boyles (not all best prices)

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BET 75

manuwa
woodley
cyborg
20 (returns 51.07)
bet365

cyborg will win, fancy manuwa to win by finish also and woodley in my opinion will be well prepared for maia, don't see maia getting woodley down sadly and
woodley wins this standing imo or loses on pts by not doing enough, hard one to call but I don't fancy maia by sub, woodley may well blow maia away early also but if it
goes past two I think it'll probably go the distance.

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BET 74

Jason Knight v Ricardo Lamas
Ricardo Lamas
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Odds: 11/10
Stake: 35.00
Possible Return: 73.50
Betv

I've no idea why lamas is the underdog here, recent losses have only been to holloway aldo and mendes and whilst knight looked good beating chas kelly it hardly makes him favourite here imo.

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I can safely say I have never got so many fights this wrong on the same card before.
I made a few mistakes and the main was to disregard a fighter I didn't know in vera by backing kelleher based on his last performance, same applies to anders who happened to be quite the beast.
I certainly don't regret the la flare bet.
I thought gastelum was going to save me and he nearly did so backing against weidman has finally bit me on the arse.

-76 overall

Total staked 1307/ret 1602.59/+295.59

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BET 73

la flare pts evens
rivera pts 13/8
7 double
betfred

That's enough betting for one night.

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BET 72

kelleher sub in round one 11/3
3
skybet

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BET 71

Brian Kelleher - Submission 3.60
Brian Kelleher v Marlon Vera - 22/07/2017
Stake £12.00
Estimated Return:£43.20
Total Stake: £12.00
Potential Return: £43.20
Coral

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BET 70

Natal pts 4/1
5
skybet

natal pts
rivera pts
la flare pts
kelleher sub
1 @ 84.31/1
skyb

same four with gastelum ko
1 at 263/1
skybet

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BET 69

rivera
gastelum
kelleher
la flare fight to go distance
7 (returns 37.13)
skybet

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BET 68

I usually oppose weidman so have do so once again and although gastelum isn't on the same level as rockhold/romero I do think he has a clear advantage standing.
I do think he'll be able to keep it standing also, not sure how he wins this and the win price of 8/13 is short enough too but I'm pretty sure he won't be winning by sub.

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 64

Alexandre Pantoja By Decision @ 6/5
Stake : €17.00
hills

Cynthia Calvillo By Submission @ 7/4
Stake : €12.00

Paul Craig By Decision @ 14/1
Stake : €3.00

16 Jul 2017 - Khalil Rountree v Paul Craig - Method of Result
Paul Craig By Decision @ 14/1
16 Jul 2017 - Alexandre Pantoja v Neil Seery - Method of Result
Alexandre Pantoja By Decision @ 6/5
16 Jul 2017 - Paul Felder v Stevie Ray - Method of Result
Paul Felder By Decision @ 11/4
16 Jul 2017 - Cynthia Calvillo v Joanne Calderwood - Method of Result
Cynthia Calvillo By Submission @ 7/4
Stake : €1.00
Estimated Returns : €340.31

no joy, close with pantoja
-33

mailburner wrote: »

BET 65

Felder 6/4
18
skyb

16 Jul 2017 - Alexandre Pantoja v Neil Seery - Method of Result
Alexandre Pantoja By Decision @ 6/5
16 Jul 2017 - Paul Felder v Stevie Ray - Method of Result
Paul Felder By Decision @ 11/4
16 Jul 2017 - Cynthia Calvillo v Joanne Calderwood - Method of Result
Cynthia Calvillo By Submission @ 7/4
Stake : €2.00
Estimated Returns : €45.37

staked 20
ret 45
+25

mailburner wrote: »

BET 66

UFC Matches Stevie Ray v Paul Felder
17-07-2017 00:30
Method of Victory
Paul Felder by KO @ 9/1
UFC Matches Gunnar Nelson v Santiago Ponzinibbio
17-07-2017 01:30
Method of Victory
Gunnar Nelson on Points @ 6/1
UFC Matches Khalil Rountree v Paul Craig
16-07-2017 23:30
Method of Victory
Paul Craig by Points @ 12/1
Your Bets
Win
Single: Paul Felder by KO @ 9/1
1 line at €3.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €3.00
Potential returns: €30.00

Trixie
4 lines at €0.50 per line
Total stake for this bet: €2.00
Potential returns: €600.50

big price on the felder ko...pp would only let me have 3 on it (wanted 5)
staked 5
ret 30
+25

mailburner wrote: »

BET 67

Bofando round one 13/8
13

just in time

bofando round one
gunni sub
calvilla sub
felder pts
2euro

staked 15
ret 34.13
+19.13

Staked 73/ret 109.13/+36.13

Total staked 1231/ret 1602.59/+371.59

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BET 67

Bofando round one 13/8
13

just in time

bofando round one
gunni sub
calvilla sub
felder pts
2euro

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BET 66

UFC Matches Stevie Ray v Paul Felder
17-07-2017 00:30
Method of Victory
Paul Felder by KO @ 9/1
UFC Matches Gunnar Nelson v Santiago Ponzinibbio
17-07-2017 01:30
Method of Victory
Gunnar Nelson on Points @ 6/1
UFC Matches Khalil Rountree v Paul Craig
16-07-2017 23:30
Method of Victory
Paul Craig by Points @ 12/1
Your Bets
Win
Single: Paul Felder by KO @ 9/1
1 line at €3.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €3.00
Potential returns: €30.00

Trixie
4 lines at €0.50 per line
Total stake for this bet: €2.00
Potential returns: €600.50

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BET 65

Felder 6/4
18
skyb

16 Jul 2017 - Alexandre Pantoja v Neil Seery - Method of Result
Alexandre Pantoja By Decision @ 6/5
16 Jul 2017 - Paul Felder v Stevie Ray - Method of Result
Paul Felder By Decision @ 11/4
16 Jul 2017 - Cynthia Calvillo v Joanne Calderwood - Method of Result
Cynthia Calvillo By Submission @ 7/4
Stake : €2.00
Estimated Returns : €45.37

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BET 64

Alexandre Pantoja By Decision @ 6/5
Stake : €17.00
hills

Cynthia Calvillo By Submission @ 7/4
Stake : €12.00

Paul Craig By Decision @ 14/1
Stake : €3.00

16 Jul 2017 - Khalil Rountree v Paul Craig - Method of Result
Paul Craig By Decision @ 14/1
16 Jul 2017 - Alexandre Pantoja v Neil Seery - Method of Result
Alexandre Pantoja By Decision @ 6/5
16 Jul 2017 - Paul Felder v Stevie Ray - Method of Result
Paul Felder By Decision @ 11/4
16 Jul 2017 - Cynthia Calvillo v Joanne Calderwood - Method of Result
Cynthia Calvillo By Submission @ 7/4
Stake : €1.00
Estimated Returns : €340.31

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 58

Robert Whittaker
Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £47.75
Total stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £47.75
Betbright

This the only bookie left going 10/11 so I took it.
I just wasn't willing to back him at 5/6 and not sure why the odds have
shortened so much in the past day or two.
If he's as good as he looked v souza he should win this one.

Close but whittaker gets it done
staked 25
ret 47.75
+22.75

mailburner wrote: »

BET 59

Overeem 4/5
60
betway

overeem
nunes
whittaker
pettis
torres
johnson

3
(55.56 returns)

I'm very happy with this price on overeem and their first fight turned out
to be a mismatch with werdum not willing to engage.
It's possible werdum could come out swinging but it's unlikely imo he will try that again like he did v miocic.
There's only one winner her for me (hopefully that won't be betway)

So often the fighters I'm most confident about just about get it done and this was certainly the case here
staked 63
ret 108
+45

mailburner wrote: »

BET 60

Valentina Shevchenko v Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Odds: 1/1
Stake: 32.00
Possible Return: 64.00
Betv

Nunes a slight underdog can't leave that price behind

Void

mailburner wrote: »

BET 62

UFC Matches Alistair Overeem v Fabricio Werdum
09-07-2017 03:30
Method of Victory
Alistair Overeem by KO @ 2/1

UFC Matches Anthony Pettis v Jim Miller
09-07-2017 03:00
Method of Victory
Anthony Pettis on Points @ 6/4

UFC Matches Yoel Romero v Robert Whittaker
09-07-2017 04:30
Method of Victory
Robert Whittaker by KO @ 7/5

UFC Matches Amanda Nunes v Valentina Shevchenko
09-07-2017 05:00
Method of Victory
Amanda Nunes by KO @ 3/1

Win
Single: Alistair Overeem by KO @ 2/1
1 line at €8.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €8.00
Potential returns: €24.00

Win
Single: Anthony Pettis on Points @ 6/4
1 line at €12.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €12.00

Accumulator 4
1 line at €2.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €2.00
Potential returns: €144.00

Trebles from 4
4 lines at €1.50 per line
Total stake for this bet: €6.00
Potential returns: €151.20
Paddy

I had the 3 kos in mind for a while here although overeem could well win on pts, nunes could well win or lose by dec, price on whittaker is muck
I do think pettis is better than miller but given how tough miller is I do think pettis will do well to finish.

staked 28
ret 30
+2
Pettis gets the job done, really regret not having a few bob on the reem to win on pts which was 9/2, doubt I'll be backing him to ko any quality fighter for a while

mailburner wrote: »

BET 63

One daft one to finish up

UFC Matches Amanda Nunes v Valentina Shevchenko
09-07-2017 05:00
Method & Round Combo
Amanda Nunes KO & Round 2 @ 11/1
UFC Matches Yoel Romero v Robert Whittaker
09-07-2017 04:30
Method & Round Combo
Robert Whittaker KO & Round 2 @ 5/1
UFC Matches Curtis Blaydes v Daniel Omielanczuk
09-07-2017 04:00
Method & Round Combo
Curtis Blaydes KO & Round 2 @ 5/1

Your Bets
Trixie
4 lines at €1.25 per line
Total stake for this bet: €5.00
Potential returns: €765.00

-5

Staked 121/ret 185.75/+64.75

Total staked 1158/ret 1493.46/+335.46

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gufc21 wrote: »

The Nunes fight is off. Nunes in hospital or something

Cheers for the heads up

Guffy

The Nunes fight is off. Nunes in hospital or something

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BET 63

One daft one to finish up

UFC Matches Amanda Nunes v Valentina Shevchenko
09-07-2017 05:00
Method & Round Combo
Amanda Nunes KO & Round 2 @ 11/1
UFC Matches Yoel Romero v Robert Whittaker
09-07-2017 04:30
Method & Round Combo
Robert Whittaker KO & Round 2 @ 5/1
UFC Matches Curtis Blaydes v Daniel Omielanczuk
09-07-2017 04:00
Method & Round Combo
Curtis Blaydes KO & Round 2 @ 5/1

Your Bets
Trixie
4 lines at €1.25 per line
Total stake for this bet: €5.00
Potential returns: €765.00

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BET 62

UFC Matches Alistair Overeem v Fabricio Werdum
09-07-2017 03:30
Method of Victory
Alistair Overeem by KO @ 2/1

UFC Matches Anthony Pettis v Jim Miller
09-07-2017 03:00
Method of Victory
Anthony Pettis on Points @ 6/4

UFC Matches Yoel Romero v Robert Whittaker
09-07-2017 04:30
Method of Victory
Robert Whittaker by KO @ 7/5

UFC Matches Amanda Nunes v Valentina Shevchenko
09-07-2017 05:00
Method of Victory
Amanda Nunes by KO @ 3/1

Win
Single: Alistair Overeem by KO @ 2/1
1 line at €8.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €8.00
Potential returns: €24.00

Win
Single: Anthony Pettis on Points @ 6/4
1 line at €12.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €12.00

Accumulator 4
1 line at €2.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €2.00
Potential returns: €144.00

Trebles from 4
4 lines at €1.50 per line
Total stake for this bet: €6.00
Potential returns: €151.20
Paddy

I had the 3 kos in mind for a while here although overeem could well win on pts, nunes could well win or lose by dec, price on whittaker is muck
I do think pettis is better than miller but given how tough miller is I do think pettis will do well to finish.

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 61

Tonights card

James Krause @ 2/9
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Jesse Taylor @ 4/6
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Multiple Type: Double
Stake: 28.00
Possible Return: 57.04
betv

krause should have little problem beating tom here, taylor will get lima down
and keep him there, think the 4/6 is a pretty good price there

I won't get a bet in easier than that this weekend.

staked 28/ret 57.04/+29.04

Total staked 1037/ret 1307.71/+270.71

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BET 61

Tonights card

James Krause @ 2/9
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Jesse Taylor @ 4/6
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Multiple Type: Double
Stake: 28.00
Possible Return: 57.04
betv

krause should have little problem beating tom here, taylor will get lima down
and keep him there, think the 4/6 is a pretty good price there

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BET 60

Valentina Shevchenko v Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Odds: 1/1
Stake: 32.00
Possible Return: 64.00
Betv

Nunes a slight underdog

can't leave that price behind

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BET 59

Overeem 4/5
60
betway

overeem
nunes
whittaker
pettis
torres
johnson

3
(55.56 returns)

I'm very happy with this price on overeem and their first fight turned out
to be a mismatch with werdum not willing to engage.
It's possible werdum could come out swinging but it's unlikely imo he will try that again like he did v miocic.
There's only one winner her for me (hopefully that won't be betway)

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callaway92 wrote: »

Not that it will mean much too you - but Romero was underdog in his last 5 fights..and we know how they went!

I have a good feeling for Yoel here. Cracking fighter

It surprises me that he was the underdog v tavares after beating brunson or even tim kennedy
I'd love to know where to get past odds
I backed him to beat weidman and kennedy but saying that I never really rated weidman who was champ when the only real contender was silva.

I don't like backing against him but that performance v souza blew me away unless maybe souza had an off night against whittaker so maybe I'm giving whittaker too much credit, time will tell I guess

I don't think romero should be the underdog here however, maybe a little bit too much hype around whittaker

callaway92

Not that it will mean much too you - but Romero was underdog in his last 5 fights..and we know how they went!

I have a good feeling for Yoel here. Cracking fighter

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BET 58

Robert Whittaker
Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £47.75
Total stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £47.75
Betbright

This the only bookie left going 10/11 so I took it.
I just wasn't willing to back him at 5/6 and not sure why the odds have
shortened so much in the past day or two.
If he's as good as he looked v souza he should win this one.