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UFC/MMA Log 2017

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Here I go again to try and make amends for last years losing log which was -66 after 126 bets

Bet 1

rodriguez/ansaroff double @ 2.14 (1.28+1.66)
24 (returns 51.42)
Betway

I think the 1.28 on rodriguez is free money and hopefully this time penn will stay retired
Ansaroff should have a lot of improvement in her esp with nunes on top position on a daily basis, lybarger isn't very good either

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BET 47

alcantara sub 2/1
15
sj

nate by sub 10/1
5
sj

treble on two above with max decision (11/4)
2euro

under 2.5 rounds alcantara
under 1.5 rounds vitor nate borrachinha bamg
over 1.5 silva medeiros
assuncao fight to go the distance
claudia
antonio carlos junior

3 (47.91)

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BET 48

bad start to the night so far

Max Holloway @ 13/10
Nate Marquardt @ 11/8
Doubles, 1 bet 4.00

Max Holloway @ 13/10
23.00 Single

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 46

alcantara
gadelha
borrachinha

17 treble (38.74)

Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision @ 7/4
12.00 Single
365

was planning on backing max all week but chickened out, he won't sub aldo so it should be one or the other

shocked by alcantara...was a last minute choice as the 1.77 odds on the
other two wasn't enough for me..sick, not always a good idea backing against a guy you know nothing about

staked 29
ret 33
+4

mailburner wrote: »

BET 47

alcantara sub 2/1
15
sj

nate by sub 10/1
5
sj

treble on two above with max decision (11/4)
2euro

under 2.5 rounds alcantara
under 1.5 rounds vitor nate borrachinha bamg
over 1.5 silva medeiros
assuncao fight to go the distance
claudia
antonio carlos junior

3 (47.91)

no joy but no regrets about backing nate for what I thought was a 50/50 fight...both so far past it now sadly
-25

mailburner wrote: »

BET 48

bad start to the night so far

Max Holloway @ 13/10
Nate Marquardt @ 11/8
Doubles, 1 bet 4.00

Max Holloway @ 13/10
23.00 Single

staked 27
ret 52.90
+25.90

staked 81/ret 85.90/+4.90

Total staked 847/ret 997.78/+150.78

error made on previous total which should be +145.88

Mark hunt up next but just waiting for those odds to drift a little bit more first

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BET 49

UFC Matches Ben Nguyen v Tim Elliott
11-06-2017 03:30
Match Betting
Tim Elliott @ 4/9
UFC Matches John Moraga v Ashkan Mokhtarian
11-06-2017 01:30
Match Betting
Ashkan Mokhtarian @ 6/4
UFC Matches Mark Hunt v Derrick Lewis
11-06-2017 05:30
Method & Round Combo
Mark Hunt KO & Round 1 @ 4/1
Your Bets
Treble
1 line at ?4.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: ?4.00
Potential returns: ?72.22
PP

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BET 50

Hunt by ko round one 4/1
8
pp

Hunt by ko round two 8/1
2
888

Hunt by ko round three 15/1
1
888

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BET 51

Hunt by ko 6/4
40
888

minute I seen this match up this was in my head, pretty sure it'll be a ko by one or the other, both have serious power but if hunt lands I doubt lewis will be able to eat it, think there's a chance hunt could eat a few from lewis though.
I think hunt could do to lewis what he did to nelson

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 49

UFC Matches Ben Nguyen v Tim Elliott
11-06-2017 03:30
Match Betting
Tim Elliott @ 4/9
UFC Matches John Moraga v Ashkan Mokhtarian
11-06-2017 01:30
Match Betting
Ashkan Mokhtarian @ 6/4
UFC Matches Mark Hunt v Derrick Lewis
11-06-2017 05:30
Method & Round Combo
Mark Hunt KO & Round 1 @ 4/1
Your Bets
Treble
1 line at ?4.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: ?4.00
Potential returns: ?72.22
PP

-4

mailburner wrote: »

BET 50

Hunt by ko round one 4/1
8
pp

Hunt by ko round two 8/1
2
888

Hunt by ko round three 15/1
1
888

can't believe this went four rounds
-11

mailburner wrote: »

BET 51

Hunt by ko 6/4
40
888

minute I seen this match up this was in my head, pretty sure it'll be a ko by one or the other, both have serious power but if hunt lands I doubt lewis will be able to eat it, think there's a chance hunt could eat a few from lewis though.
I think hunt could do to lewis what he did to nelson

Took a while but it got there in the end, hunt never looked in any real danger of losing, surprised me that hunt wasn't favourite for this
staked 40
ret 100
+60

staked 55/ret 100/+45

Total staked 902/ret 1097.78/+195.78

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BET 52

Dong Hyun Kim 3.60
Colby Covington v Dong Hyun Kim - 17/06/2017
Stake 20.00
Estimated Return:72.00
coral

I have no idea why kim is such an underdog here like a few others have
pointed out on the mma gambling thread, his losses have only been to the very elite in woodley, maia and condit
I see this as a 50/50 match up so those odds have to be take imo

Only bet for me on the card apart from maybe a kim method of victory bet

It's only now I realise that this card is already on as I type this

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BET 53

Kim by sub 2/1
4
skyb

kim by ko 8/1
2
skybet

not sure if kim will try to put on a show and finish colby or play it safe and lay on colby for three....or maybe it might happen the other way round :pac:

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 52

Dong Hyun Kim 3.60
Colby Covington v Dong Hyun Kim - 17/06/2017
Stake 20.00
Estimated Return:72.00
coral

I have no idea why kim is such an underdog here like a few others have
pointed out on the mma gambling thread, his losses have only been to the very elite in woodley, maia and condit
I see this as a 50/50 match up so those odds have to be take imo

Only bet for me on the card apart from maybe a kim method of victory bet

It's only now I realise that this card is already on as I type this

mailburner wrote: »

BET 53

Kim by sub 2/1
4
skyb

kim by ko 8/1
2
skybet

not sure if kim will try to put on a show and finish colby or play it safe and lay on colby for three....or maybe it might happen the other way round :pac:

couldn't have been more wrong
-26

Total staked 928/ret 1097.78/+169.78

mailburner

BET 54

mitrione 4/5
50
bet365

The minute this match up was made I was backing mitrione, evens yesterday so I'm thinking I missed the boat
fedor is past it, matt should win this easily enough unless he does something stupid

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BET 55

Dennis Siver @ 8/15
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Yes @ 4/6
(Will The Fight Go The Distance - Match) Bader V Davis
Multiple Type: Double
Stake: 25.00
Possible Return: 63.89
betv

think bader and davis will cancel each other out, don't see penn doing much here either and just wish he'd retire

mailburner

BET 56

Yes @ 4/6
(Will The Fight Go The Distance - Match) bader davis
Lorenz Larkin @ 4/9
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Matt Mitrione @ 4/5
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Erik Koch @ 2/7
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Carla Esparza @ 2/5
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Dennis Siver @ 8/15
(To Win the Bout - Match)
No @ 2/5
(Will The Fight Go The Distance - Match) chiesa lee
Multiple Type: 7 fold
Stake: 4.00
Possible Return: 66.98

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BET 57

Ryan Bader - to win by Decision or Technical Decision @ 9/4
(Round Betting - Match)
Matt Mitrione - to win in Round 1 @ 15/8
(Round Betting - Match)
Dennis Siver - To Win By KO TKO or Disqualification @ 2/1
(Method of Victory - Match)
Carla Esparza - To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 8/11
(Method of Victory - Match)
Erik Koch - To Win By KO TKO or Disqualification @ 11/4
(Method of Victory - Match)
Multiple Type: 5 fold
Stake: 2.00
Possible Return: 363.13

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 54

mitrione 4/5
50
bet365

The minute this match up was made I was backing mitrione, evens yesterday so I'm thinking I missed the boat
fedor is past it, matt should win this easily enough unless he does something stupid

That looked like a pretty out of shape fedor
staked 50
ret 90
+40

mailburner wrote: »

BET 56

Yes @ 4/6
(Will The Fight Go The Distance - Match) bader davis
Lorenz Larkin @ 4/9
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Matt Mitrione @ 4/5
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Erik Koch @ 2/7
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Carla Esparza @ 2/5
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Dennis Siver @ 8/15
(To Win the Bout - Match)
No @ 2/5
(Will The Fight Go The Distance - Match) chiesa lee
Multiple Type: 7 fold
Stake: 4.00
Possible Return: 66.98

-4

Staked 54/ret 90/+36

Total staked 982/ret 1187.78/+205.78

Good start to the weekend there and a pretty comfortable one with matt, fedor looked pretty fat in there.
I flew through the bader davis fight and all i heard was crowd booing anytime I stopped it, I would be shocked if siver doesn't bring in the double and am far too confident of it coming in.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

BET 55

Dennis Siver @ 8/15
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Yes @ 4/6
(Will The Fight Go The Distance - Match) Bader V Davis
Multiple Type: Double
Stake: 25.00
Possible Return: 63.89
betv

think bader and davis will cancel each other out, don't see penn doing much here either and just wish he'd retire

one scary moment in the second where siver was dropped but penn was shot by the third round, bader davis could have fought ten rounds without a finish
staked 25
ret 63.89
+38.89

mailburner wrote: »

BET 57

Ryan Bader - to win by Decision or Technical Decision @ 9/4
(Round Betting - Match)
Matt Mitrione - to win in Round 1 @ 15/8
(Round Betting - Match)
Dennis Siver - To Win By KO TKO or Disqualification @ 2/1
(Method of Victory - Match)
Carla Esparza - To Win By Decision or Technical Decision @ 8/11
(Method of Victory - Match)
Erik Koch - To Win By KO TKO or Disqualification @ 11/4
(Method of Victory - Match)
Multiple Type: 5 fold
Stake: 2.00
Possible Return: 363.13

started well with the first three winning but that was that
-2

Staked 27/ret 63.89/+36.89

Total staked 1009/ret 1251.67/+242.67

The ship has steadied a bit after a few bad events thankfully

Division

Tough to call a winner at decent odds at the top UFC level. There will probably be a fair bit of value when Bamma comes to Dublin on the 7th July if there are people here with a bit of inside knowledge. Any odds available now?

Will look to get some tickets for this. Should be a good show.

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Division wrote: »

Tough to call a winner at decent odds at the top UFC level. There will probably be a fair bit of value when Bamma comes to Dublin on the 7th July if there are people here with a bit of inside knowledge. Any odds available now?

I'd be thinking this won't be priced up till a day or two before it if it is priced up at all

Division

Bamma 30 odds: https://www.betbright.com/mma

Have any opinion on any of the fights?

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Division wrote: »

Bamma 30 odds: https://www.betbright.com/mma

Have any opinion on any of the fights?

I don't know them at all

Division

Tweeted John Kavanagh to see if he was willing to tip any of the matches. Must not want to pick sides:)

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Division wrote: »

Tweeted John Kavanagh to see if he was willing to tip any of the matches. Must not want to pick sides:)

Try here http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057756967/5

He agreed with me on nunes and whittaker
I'm already sold on overeem

Division

Fair play to him he tweeted me back, tipping Smullen.

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BET 58

Robert Whittaker
Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £47.75
Total stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £47.75
Betbright

This the only bookie left going 10/11 so I took it.
I just wasn't willing to back him at 5/6 and not sure why the odds have
shortened so much in the past day or two.
If he's as good as he looked v souza he should win this one.

callaway92

Not that it will mean much too you - but Romero was underdog in his last 5 fights..and we know how they went!

I have a good feeling for Yoel here. Cracking fighter

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callaway92 wrote: »

Not that it will mean much too you - but Romero was underdog in his last 5 fights..and we know how they went!

I have a good feeling for Yoel here. Cracking fighter

It surprises me that he was the underdog v tavares after beating brunson or even tim kennedy
I'd love to know where to get past odds
I backed him to beat weidman and kennedy but saying that I never really rated weidman who was champ when the only real contender was silva.

I don't like backing against him but that performance v souza blew me away unless maybe souza had an off night against whittaker so maybe I'm giving whittaker too much credit, time will tell I guess

I don't think romero should be the underdog here however, maybe a little bit too much hype around whittaker

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BET 59

Overeem 4/5
60
betway

overeem
nunes
whittaker
pettis
torres
johnson

3
(55.56 returns)

I'm very happy with this price on overeem and their first fight turned out
to be a mismatch with werdum not willing to engage.
It's possible werdum could come out swinging but it's unlikely imo he will try that again like he did v miocic.
There's only one winner her for me (hopefully that won't be betway)

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BET 60

Valentina Shevchenko v Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Odds: 1/1
Stake: 32.00
Possible Return: 64.00
Betv

Nunes a slight underdog

can't leave that price behind

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BET 61

Tonights card

James Krause @ 2/9
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Jesse Taylor @ 4/6
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Multiple Type: Double
Stake: 28.00
Possible Return: 57.04
betv

krause should have little problem beating tom here, taylor will get lima down
and keep him there, think the 4/6 is a pretty good price there

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 61

Tonights card

James Krause @ 2/9
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Jesse Taylor @ 4/6
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Multiple Type: Double
Stake: 28.00
Possible Return: 57.04
betv

krause should have little problem beating tom here, taylor will get lima down
and keep him there, think the 4/6 is a pretty good price there

I won't get a bet in easier than that this weekend.

staked 28/ret 57.04/+29.04

Total staked 1037/ret 1307.71/+270.71