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Mayo constituency GE2020

Loafing Oaf

Which, according to Paddy Power, is 2/9 to take place this year.:)

Anyone got any inside info?

Is Michael Ring planning to run again? If so, he's presumably a dead cert as always. As are Calleary and Chambers I'd say. After that it's a tougher call but I reckon Michelle Mulherin has a decent shot at a comeback, given the conservatism of the electorate...

Apologies to the mods if it's 'too soon' to be starting this conversation.

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Water John

Her ties are to Africa, not Russia.

Loafing Oaf

Water John wrote: »

So Mayo goes from having the Taoiseach and Ring, to having Mulherrin and Ring. Ouch.

No guarantee that we'll have both (although it's 95% sure we'll have at least one). Has Ring confirmed he will be standing again?

Water John

Mulherrin getting mangled on the VB show. Trying to defend the Marie Whelan appointment.

nuac

Water John wrote: »

So Mayo goes from having the Taoiseach and Ring, to having Mulherrin and Ring. Ouch.

Ring is an effective politician. Will deliver to rural Ireland

MBSnr

Water John wrote: »

So Mayo goes from having the Taoiseach and Ring, to having Mulherrin and Ring. Ouch.

In fairness, not sure Enda did that much for Mayo... We'd have been better with a Healy-Rae...

nuac

MBSnr wrote: »

In fairness, not sure Enda did that much for Mayo... We'd have been better with a Healy-Rae...

Enda is a very nice man. but did not want to be accused of favouring his own area.

Ring is also a nice guy, but imho will deliver to his home base regardless of bleatings from the politically correct

nuac

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

Sounds like an endorsement for a female Donald Trump.

I know Michelle for many years, both as a solicitor, Urban and County Councillor, TD, and now a Senator.

She is neither a Trump nor a Trumpette.

She is an able lady.

nuac

Water John wrote: »

Mulherrin getting mangled on the VB show. Trying to defend the Marie Whelan appointment.

As a barrister VB should know that it is a custom of the trade that a retiring AG gets first dibs on any judicial vacancy arising

finisklin

The comparisons between Trump and Mulherin are fair. Both are able people and this is demonstrated by their ability to connect on some level with their electorate.

The problem is that both are gaff prone and on a consistent basis. Mulherin has stuck her two feet in it time and time again. The phone calls to Africa from a Dail phone demonstrated her inexperience and how she views the system to be milked.

The biscuit was the fornication comments and the needless hole that she dug for herself.

I sense that she likes the TD/senator gig in Dublin where she has a second life, removed from her Mayo constituents and rural life in general. This dichotomy is unhealthy and the influx of ideas that shape her thinking with these fancy dans will further alienate her from her electoral base.

The fact that attorney general's have been appointed in this manner in the past does not make the process right or fair. Other candidates expressed interest and at least deserved a forum to outline their approach to the role.

The legal professions self righteousness in this regard and that they deserve a special, different process was identified as an area to be addressed by the troika. However, we are no closer to this than before.

Its disappointing for other public servants to go through tougher recruitment processes but at least these are fairer and above board.

We get what we vote for I guess......Mulherin will regrettably be around for a while longer.

seligehgit

Super post Finisklin.

irishgeo

Considering Michelle was Enda pick. She might be around the next time.

Loafing Oaf

According to Indo article about Enda's public speaking (non) adventures, Michelle Mulherin and Paddy Burke will be running for FG next time. Although given the former is described as 'TD' I wouldn't stake my life on its accuracy. No mention of Ring but I presume we would have heard by now if he wasn't standing.

finisklin

Hopefully Paddy Burke will be steadier and more assured in front of the press. I assume he has nothing to prove and is a safe pair of hands. Time will tell I guess.....

Any word on Enda declaring his hand for presidency?

Loafing Oaf

finisklin wrote: »

Hopefully Paddy Burke will be steadier and more assured in front of the press. I assume he has nothing to prove and is a safe pair of hands. Time will tell I guess.....

Any word on Enda declaring his hand for presidency?

Apparently ruled it out when picking up that honorary degree or whatever it was.

finisklin

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Apparently ruled it out when picking up that honorary degree or whatever it was.

Saving himself for after Michael D's second term. Its probably Michael D's at this stage once he declares.....

nuac

If Ring wants to run again, I believe he will be nominated by FG and will be re-elected

Loafing Oaf

nuac wrote: »

If Ring wants to run again, I believe he will be nominated by FG and will be re-elected

Almost certainly. But who, if anyone, from FG in Mayo will be joining him (I think we can rule out 3 out of 4 for FG)? I know nothing of Burke but on the surface Mulherin would seem to hold a lot of cards: former TD, higher profile, north of the county to herself...

nuac

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

Sounds like an endorsement for a female Donald Trump.

Know this lady for years. I stand over my endorsement of her

nuac

I hear FF having election convention 19th NOV.

Presume it will be Calleary and Chambers.

Or without Enda will they go for a third runner?

ifeelstupid

nuac wrote: »

I hear FF having election convention 19th NOV.

Presume it will be Calleary and Chambers.

Or without Enda will they go for a third runner?

I think Calleary and Chambers will poll well, FF might try and bring a no.3 in the hope of good transfers.

Loafing Oaf

nuac wrote: »

I hear FF having election convention 19th NOV.

Presume it will be Calleary and Chambers.

Or without Enda will they go for a third runner?

I had been thinking Mayo was pretty much locked down 2 FF, 2 FG, but with both parties polling strongly nationally, they'll probably both be eyeing up a third seat. Adrian Kavanagh's latest poll analysis gives FG three in Mayo: https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/10/05/the-empire-strikes-back-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-opinion-poll-5th-october-2017/

But if FF run a strong third candidate and are surging across the country on the day, who knows?

Dudda

Poor Michelle. She doesn't make it easy for herself: https://mobile.twitter.com/rnerrionstreet/status/929339225681616896?s=09

finisklin

Dudda wrote: »

Poor Michelle. She doesn't make it easy for herself: https://mobile.twitter.com/rnerrionstreet/status/929339225681616896?s=09

I think that legal background will militate against her. Out of touch with reality and on the ground. She will be hard pressed to retain her seat given the hits on the gaffometer.

nuac

Kavanagh's final forecast for Mayo is FG 2, FF 2

i see press reports that FG seeking a candidate from Castlebar.

They might as well leave that vote to Ring, placing their second runner in Ballina area.

The Blue Tide has gone out

Loafing Oaf

nuac wrote: »

I hear FF having election convention 19th NOV.

Presume it will be Calleary and Chambers.

Or without Enda will they go for a third runner?

As expected going with just C&C. http://www.mayonews.ie/news/31151-fianna-fail-out-of-the-blocks-and-on-election-footing

voz es

I will tell you straight, Mayo FG needs to stand back and have a look at what they are doing here with Mulherne, she is just not liked. I actually admire her resilience at this stage. But that phone scandal just wont go away. Then we had ticket gate and bypasss mess.

By F.G. refusing to face up to this and offer their core a candidate without baggage and who has a clean slate with the national media they risk alienating them selves from the people.

If I was in FF I would be putting serous consideration into running another Female Mayo Candidate.

seligehgit

nuac wrote: »

Kavanagh's final forecast for Mayo is FG 2, FF 2

i see press reports that FG seeking a candidate from Castlebar.

They might as well leave that vote to Ring, placing their second runner in Ballina area.

The Blue Tide has gone out

That appears the most likely outcome,I can't see Michelle Mulherin securing a seat,too gaffe prone.

Hard to see where Fine Gael will find a candidate in Castlebar?

nuac

From tonight's news FG would need to finalise its Mayo slate.

Best option would be to run Michelle in North Mayo along with Ring

Loafing Oaf

seligehgit wrote: »

That appears the most likely outcome,I can't see Michelle Mulherin securing a seat,too gaffe prone.

Hard to see where Fine Gael will find a candidate in Castlebar?

That Indo article I quoted suggested that Senator Paddy Burke would be a candidate. Be unusual for a guy in his sixties to run for the Dail for the first time but needs must I suppose. FG's calculation may be that their chances of holding two seats are enhanced by running three candidates even if they have no realistic chance of taking a third...

Loafing Oaf

Well it looks like FG have sourced a Castlebar-based candidate out of leftfield. Left-half forward to be precise. http://www.mayonews.ie/news/31209-fine-gael-and-footballer-alan-dillon-in-talks-about-surprise-general-election-bid-2

Maybe they're thinking there's a gap for a 'strong GAA man' on the ticket in the absence of Kenny and O'Mahony.