yewtree wrote: » Increasing production is grand but are you increasing profit/ha? more milk doesn't mean more money,the work in lyons estate isn't claiming to be any more profitable/ha that low cost grass based systems. A lot of the guys i see with second units run simple systems stocked about 3/ha, very little buffer feeding, block calving. i dont think its any more complicated than the alternative of trying to push stocking rates and having to buffer feed or zero grazing.
jaymla627 wrote: » To be fair any bps is returned to landlord in table so that will leave the ground returning anywhere from 350-450 total going forward, plus rental income is tax free.... Of course the danger to the owner is his ground could be mined of p and k and generally ran into the ground as the lease nears its end, would love to see a proper analysis done though on say how a second unit would stack up against a unit that simply builds extra accommodation on home farm/extends parlour etc and simply just ramps up production by having higher yielding cows that are fed a 1.5 ton meal a year doing 580kys milk solids and buffered with feed from outside rented blocks
kowtow wrote: » The biggest issue on a quick reading of those figures is that, while the author assumes that the price of land will rise by 1% p.a. between now and the end of 20 years he makes no allowance (as far as I can see) for a rent rise during that period. At a rent of €200 / acre now, he is assuming that a landlord will accept a return of 1.7% on his capital (the land). Whilst that is a losing proposition for the landlord, in today's climate of negative interest rates & tax free land leases it is at least possible to imagine someone signing up. But if the rent doesn't rise over the period of the lease the landlord is going to be getting 1.4% approximately, which is a negative return even at today's rates of inflation. I'm not sure anyone will sign up to 20 years of that. If the figures in that table are correct, which is doubtful enough, the Landlord is going to be a fair bit poorer in 20 years time than today. The better approach would probably be to consider the whole proposition over 7 or 10 years and make no assumptions about land price inflation. Where would that leave the reader?
jaymla627 wrote: » Some series tripe in the journal this week on taking on a second unit, standout assumptions average milk price of 30 plus cent, 21 cent a litre production costs including labour/rent/interest costs.... Standout figure is you'll clear 1.7 million after 20 years once lease is up, the only question I have is why is Aidan wasting his time with the farmers journal when the above can be made on rented units
yosemitesam1 wrote: » I'm not sure I'd agree with that for the majority of their research. There isn't really the desire to develop a broad understand how things work, instead it's almost always a case of oversimplify as much as possible in order to come up with a model or headline and apply that straight across the board as if it encompasses everything. It would be great if there was a few lads at least who'd look at and try to gain an understanding and appreciation of the bigger picture.
Since 2013 alone, Ireland has increased milk production by 23% (from 5,423 to 6,674 billion litres; CSO, 2016). ...... As a consequence of the increased milk production in Ireland, the export value of Irish dairy products and ingredients has increased from approximately €2.3 billion in 2010 to €3.4 billion in 2016 [thats a 47% increase]
Since 2013 alone, Ireland has increased milk production by 23% (from 5,423 to 6,674 billion litres; CSO, 2016)....... As a consequence of the increased milk production in Ireland, the export value of Irish dairy products and ingredients has increased from approximately €2.9 billion in 2013 to €3.4 billion in 2016 [thats a 17% increase - less than the growth in production]
kowtow wrote: » Teagasc gives us wonderful, generally pretty complete, research. It is up to all of us - farmers first, but most of all perhaps journalists and commentators of one sort or another - not to misuse the research and to take care that when we summarize it we do so accurately.
Average herd size has increased from 45 cows in 2005 to 76 cows in 2016. Excluding dairy farms milking less than 30 cows (who can potentially double in herd size without requiring extra labour), the average herd size of the remaining 15,339 dairy herds in 2016 is 87 cows. Additionally, the proportion of cows in herds of greater than 100 cows has increased from 13% in 2005 to 47% in 2016. The number of dairy farms with herds greater than 100 cows has increased from 1,080 (4.5%) in 2005 to 4,262 (23%) in 2016. The average herd size for farmers in this category is now 155 cows. Figure 3 shows the rate of increase in herds with greater than 100 cows with much of the growth happening in the recent 2013-2016 period.
yewtree wrote: » kowtow wrote: » There was a figure on the % of herds milking more than 100 cows, it has increased by a lot put I can't remember the exact number. It's fair to say herd size is increasing with all the associated issues with labour The only figure I can recall - and I don't know where I saw it - is that 47% of cows are now milked in herds of greater than 100, I think that is up 10% or more on the last survey. I could be totally and utterly wrong, in which case I'll be the first to apologize, but if more than half the herds were over 100 cows I'd be shocked.
kowtow wrote: » There was a figure on the % of herds milking more than 100 cows, it has increased by a lot put I can't remember the exact number. It's fair to say herd size is increasing with all the associated issues with labour
kowtow wrote: » yewtree wrote: Agree on this don't know how brennnan gets so much print space As he is so one dimensional and black and white in what he preaches onlyinterested in Mickey waving figures which once You were at the teagasc conference yesterday I think? Did they repeat the half the farms in Ireland are more than 100 cows figure? .. as the article on Agriland suggests. I can't imagine they did unless I have seriously misunderstood something but..... so much outside the farmgate in this country is statistics. I'd like to think that those who prepare them and report them have a basic level of competence. There was a figure on the % of herds milking more than 100 cows, it has increased by a lot put I can't remember the exact number. It's fair to say herd size is increasing with all the associated issues with labour
yewtree wrote: Agree on this don't know how brennnan gets so much print space As he is so one dimensional and black and white in what he preaches onlyinterested in Mickey waving figures which once You were at the teagasc conference yesterday I think? Did they repeat the half the farms in Ireland are more than 100 cows figure? .. as the article on Agriland suggests. I can't imagine they did unless I have seriously misunderstood something but..... so much outside the farmgate in this country is statistics. I'd like to think that those who prepare them and report them have a basic level of competence.
yewtree wrote: Agree on this don't know how brennnan gets so much print space As he is so one dimensional and black and white in what he preaches onlyinterested in Mickey waving figures which once examined don't stack up ,there is a half hearted attempt lately to input labour figures into costs of production ,needs to. E fully costed with actual figures also for articles similar capital costs of repayments need inclusion
kowtow wrote: » There's an article referenced on the journal dairy Twitter today with the headline "nearly half of all herds are now over 100 cows". It refers I think to a teagasc report which among other things says nearly half of Irish cows are part of herds bigger than 100 which of course is a totally different thing. Billionaires own more than half the money in the world. That doesn't make half the people in the world billionaires. I'm amazed that the journal could make such a schoolboy error in statistics and turn it into an article. I did challenge them about it on Twitter but they are silent.
jaymla627 wrote: » I didn't say total costs did I, but going of the table all fixed/variable/labour/rent and intrest repayments excluding capitial repayments are costed at 21 cent a litre assuming 5000 litre a cow herd average.... If you throw in a figure of 50 grand for labour for the second unit and tag on rent the cost of producing a litre of milk on this unit minus these costs is 14 cent a litre excluding capital repayments but including intrest repayments that's what you call a series distortion of the true cost of producing a litre of milk where in gods name are replacement stock/ground taken for silage to support a 200 cow herd been farmed on a 160 acre block factored in.... The clown should of been told to come up with something that was factual correct and newsworthy when that article was sent in for proof-reading ffs
yewtree wrote: » Just after reading the article, that is a fairly serious distortion of what was said . All costs have been put in a table and nowhere is 21 cent suggested as total costs. The buying options is in negative cash flow for duration of the 20 years. It starts off by saying not for everyone and most lads better off to concentrate on home Farm.
kowtow wrote: » Interestingly I would say that the average founder/ small business owner or indeed vested executive in a tech company would also be doing about that in comparison to the "regular full timers" in the office.. if such a thing exists nowadays in some companies. how did they measure it? Hours worked?
Mooooo wrote: » Paint on cows heat seekers on heifers and chinball on bull, used a harness that had a kind of chalk thing in it once for a bull as was cheaper but as they were getting the ration in the feed passage at the time it didn't last two weeks. Would put something on the bull anyway but with till a week or so after introducing the bull to the heifers/ cows. I dunno would it be possible but say if you synced the heifers and ai,d as normal and once that is done put the ones that didn't come bulling with the cows to help catch them if it suits, if you have space in parlour and enough grass that the heifers wouldn't be struggling to get in the grass?
