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2017 UK General Election - 8th June

devnull

As discussed in the Brexit thread, probably best for a new thread on this.

It looks like it will be held on June 8th providing Parliament votes for it on Wednesday, which seems to be almost certain and can't personally see it being anything other than an increased majority for the Tory party.

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FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

True. Time to stand back and watch them commit hari kari. This is good for Ireland and the EU. Probably good for Britain in the long term too.

I think so.
The DUP are all in on this deal.
I cannot see the UK government lasting a year to be honest.

ThisRegard

Cazale wrote: »

A deal has been done already between the DUP and May.

The DUPs price for propping up a new Conservative government will include a promise that there would be no post-Brexit special status for Northern Ireland, the partys leader in Westminster has confirmed.

The leader has? The official line from the DUP is to neither confirm, nor deny, they're even in talks.

[Deleted User]

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Are you asking me?

I wasn't, was just looking for confirmation of the Tory/DUP thing.

wes

FrancieBrady wrote: »

a Labour party growing in confidence

Parliamentary Labour party will now have to support Corbyn. I don't think there Anti-Corbyn position is a feasible one anymore.

Mr.Micro

It just shows how incompetent May is. How long can she last as PM?

elefant

Forgive my ignorance on the machinations of this but:

If the Tory/DUP coalition were to be on the verge of confirming something that Sinn Fein were totally opposed to, would there be anything (but themselves) stopping them taking their seats in parliament just at that time, and removing the coalition's majority, just like that?

FrancieBrady

wes wrote: »

Parliamentary Labour party will now have to support Corbyn. I don't think there Anti-Corbyn position is a feasible one anymore.

Corbyn is safe - bigtime. He has risen the Labour party (a real Labour party) from the ashes.

That in itself will be pivotal.

First Up

elefant wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance on the machinations of this but:

If the Tory/DUP coalition were to be on the verge of confirming something that Sinn Fein were totally opposed to, would there be anything (but themselves) stopping them taking their seats in parliament just at that time, and removing the coalition's majority, just like that?

Having to swear the oath of allegiance might be a deal breaker.

devnull

elefant wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance on the machinations of this but:

If the Tory/DUP coalition were to be on the verge of confirming something that Sinn Fein were totally opposed to, would there be anything (but themselves) stopping them taking their seats in parliament just at that time, and removing the coalition's majority, just like that?

I get impression they care more about their pride than something which might effect the people they represent.

Their hatred for Westminster and the Brits and the long term interests of themselves is more important than their care for the people of NI in short term.

I'm surprised you need to ask that about SF, remember how they moaned like hell about FF/FG but declined to do anything about it for the same reason.

lawred2

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

Hard to believe that the Tories and DUP reached a deal so quickly.They deserve each other!

Low morals are easily found in low places

Jayop

SF stood on a policy of not taking seats. Increased their vote in every single constituency and gained three seats. They won't change now and nor should they.

Personally I don't see the point voting for them for a Westminster election but that's their mandate.

theoneeyedman

If IS is or Al Quieda had caused as much damage to the UK as the tories and their cronies over the last ten-fifteen years, they would be delighted.

Economy in a heap with austerity etc, due to the policies of free market /deregulation, unnecessary Brexit referendum causing instability across the EU as well as the UK, and now a version of 'Strong & Stable' government that is anything but, following a completely unnecessary general election

Democratic Terrorism ®.

(I want a penny from anyone who uses that term)

wes

devnull wrote: »

I get impression they care more about their pride than something which might effect the people they represent.

Their hatred for Westminster and the Brits and the long term interests of themselves is more important than their care for the people of NI in short term.

If Sinn Fein could stop a disaster and don't. It will hurt them here imho. There pride could wipe out the gains they have been making here. Right now, they seem to be the do nothing party. I think a lot of people could care less about there pride.

FrancieBrady

devnull wrote: »

I get impression they care more about their pride than something which might effect the people they represent.

Their hatred for Westminster and the Brits and the long term interests of themselves is more important than their care for the people of NI in short term.

I'm surprised you need to ask that about SF, remember how they moaned like hell about FF/FG but declined to do anything about it for the same reason.

How come that isn't showing in how people are voting? The SDLP got wiped off the map last night. They take their seats.

Unless you can show how people are massively worse off it's a tremendously patronising attitude.

elefant

devnull wrote: »

I get impression they care more about their pride than something which might effect the people they represent.

Their hatred for Westminster and the Brits and the long term interests of themselves is more important than their care for the people of NI in short term.

I'm surprised you need to ask that about SF, remember how they moaned like hell about FF/FG but declined to do anything about it for the same reason.

Is it something that any coalition would have to keep in mind at all times though?

Would they be so confident in Sinn Fein staying away no matter what that they could still push through something controversial for the North, considering the majority is founded entirely upon SF not taking their seats, even for just one vote?

sink

elefant wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance on the machinations of this but:

If the Tory/DUP coalition were to be on the verge of confirming something that Sinn Fein were totally opposed to, would there be anything (but themselves) stopping them taking their seats in parliament just at that time, and removing the coalition's majority, just like that?

650 seat parliament, 326 needed for majority. Tory 319 + DUP 10 = 329. They don't need SF to abstain.

bilston

elefant wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance on the machinations of this but:

If the Tory/DUP coalition were to be on the verge of confirming something that Sinn Fein were totally opposed to, would there be anything (but themselves) stopping them taking their seats in parliament just at that time, and removing the coalition's majority, just like that?

The DUP plus Conservatives takes May to 328/329 seats, so even if SF took their seats the Tories/DUP would have a 6/8 seat majority.

When May goes to the Queen and asks permission to form a government can Lizzy say no? I'm assuming no, and it's just a rubber stamping exercise.

Peregrinus

Kiith wrote: »

Can SF actually so anything about this?

No. Tory/DUP have a majority, regardless of what stance SF takes.

Kiith wrote: »

And if so, why wouldn't they? Surely it's in their interest to not see a Tory/DUP coalition?

The question is hypothetical, obviously. But I think the answer is that they wouldn't. They're not about who governs the UK; they're about who governs Ireland. The chance to influence who governs the UK is not that big a draw to them, and certainly not big enough to get them to swear to be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the Second, and her heirs and successors as by law appointed, which is what they'd have to do in order to take their seats as Westminster.

devnull

wes wrote: »

If Sinn Fein could stop a disaster and don't. It will hurt them here imho. There pride could wipe out the gains they have been making here. Right now, they seem to be the do nothing party. I think a lot of people could care less about there pride.

Indeed, remember how they moaned like hell about FF/FG but declined to do anything about it for a similar reason.

Pride.

Nody

elefant wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance on the machinations of this but:

If the Tory/DUP coalition were to be on the verge of confirming something that Sinn Fein were totally opposed to, would there be anything (but themselves) stopping them taking their seats in parliament just at that time, and removing the coalition's majority, just like that?

Nope; Tory will be at 318 (1 seat undeclared so could go up to 319) and 10 DUP means they are above the 326 seat threshold required for own majority. So SF can sit back and claim moral high ground for now but if a few tories/DUPs would disagree (3 to 4 would be enough) in a vote they could tip the balance.

devnull

elefant wrote: »

Is it something that any coalition would have to keep in mind at all times though?

Would they be so confident in Sinn Fein staying away no matter what that they could still push through something controversial for the North, considering the majority is founded entirely upon SF not taking their seats, even for just one vote?

With SF's track record of being a do-nothing party, I doubt they will do anything.

I'll eat my hat if they do.

Chardee MacDennis

why is everyone talking about SF, them taking their seats wouldn't affect a Tory/DUP coalition...

elefant

sink wrote: »

650 seat parliament, 326 needed for majority. Tory 319 + DUP 10 = 329. They don't need SF to abstain.

Well, that makes my question completely redundant :pac:

Last figures I saw this morning had Tories at 313

Nothing to see here...

bilston

For what it's worth I think SF should take their seats, obviously something would have to agreed regarding the oath but really given the make up of this parliament they could have real influence, and I say that as a supporter of the Union in NI (albeit an Alliance voter).

First Up

Chardee MacDennis wrote: »

why is everyone talking about SF, them taking their seats wouldn't affect a Tory/DUP coalition...

The DUP position is much more important. If, as reported they are saying no special status for NI, then we are looking at a border.

FrancieBrady

The DUP look like they have done a deal in a matter of hours.
There will be no huge dividend for the people here.

They probably got an assurance that the Tories wont kick much of a fuss up about Nama and RHI and will keep Arlene safe.

devnull

First Up wrote: »

The DUP position is much more important. If, as reported they are saying no special status for NI, then we are looking at a border.

Have to think about the Northern Ireland Assembly in all of this as well.

DUP could really start a lot of crap between NI and ROI if that is true.

Guess that might play into SF's hands though.

bilston

There is little prospect of the Tories/DUP "arrangement" surviving 5 years with such a slim majority, particularly with Brexit looming large and the monumental impact that will have on NI.

Northern Ireland and Ireland in general (due to the discussions over hard/soft border) just became very relevant in British politics again.

Jayop

Chardee MacDennis wrote: »

why is everyone talking about SF, them taking their seats wouldn't affect a Tory/DUP coalition...

Because certain groups of people in the South are obsessed with them and will try to attack them over anything including the shocking revelation that they will keep their word.

These same people are so entrenched in their hatred for SF that their minds can't possibly understand how they keep making gains in every election despite not playing to a FF/FF/DUP tune.

I think only one local election in the north a few years ago aside they have made significant and steady gains on both sides of the border. Yet the haters call for change. It's hilarious.

lawred2

elefant wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance on the machinations of this but:

If the Tory/DUP coalition were to be on the verge of confirming something that Sinn Fein were totally opposed to, would there be anything (but themselves) stopping them taking their seats in parliament just at that time, and removing the coalition's majority, just like that?

Nothing has ever stopped SF taking their seats but themselves