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Catalan independence referendum, 2017

An Ciarraioch

Despite the refusal of the Madrid government to enter negotiations on the subject, Catalonia has decided to hold a binding independence referendum in September of this year. The most recent poll showed that 84% of Catalans approved the holding of such a vote (49% unilaterally, 35% a negotiated referendum), but the outcome remains too close to call (48% Yes, 40% No - 54/46 when undecideds were allocated). Indeed, the question of EU membership could prove crucial, as support for independence has dropped when this implies exclusion from the bloc.

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Peregrinus

CruelCoin wrote: »

Why is the EU permitting Spain to try block this?

"For the European Union, respect for this right cannot be disassociated from respect for the freedom and dignity of the individual and for fundamental human rights. The obligation to promote and protect this right is therefore included in full among the commitments given by States in the field of human rights."

EU president states its a human right.

http://eu-un.europa.eu/eu-presidency-statement-the-right-to-self-determination/

So, why are the Catalans being blocked from self-determination, while the EU has no issue in handing the Spanish veto powers over Gibraltar (who have self-determined that they are british)?

Oh, come now. You've been reading the Daily Telegraph again, haven't you? You shouldn't; you know it causes brain-rot.

The EU hasn't "handed the Spanish veto powers over Gibraltar". They've handed the Spanish and the British veto powers over the application to Gibraltar of any UK-EU agreement. You'd have to work very hard to turn that into an infringement of the Gibraltarians' right to self-determination.

If anybody's ignoring the Gibraltarian's right to self determination it's the UK, who propose to overlook Gibraltar's 96% vote in favour of staying in the EU. I don't see you leaping up and down demanding to know why the EU is allowing the UK to do that. I wonder why not?

CruelCoin

Peregrinus wrote: »

If anybody's ignoring the Gibraltarian's right to self determination it's the UK, who propose to overlook Gibraltar's 96% vote in favour of staying in the EU. I don't see you leaping up and down demanding to know why the EU is allowing the UK to do that. I wonder why not?

Last i checked the EU wasn't a nation, unless they've finally pulled off that particular coup-detat

The self determination of being british trumps the determination of being in the EU.

Earl _of _Sandwich

Have any of the European political heavyweights publicly expressed an opinion on this? I'm interested to know what support the Catalans have in the EU.

I'm guessing SF have a strong opinion on the ref. Have any other Irish political parties expressed an opinion?

An Ciarraioch

The Oireachtas set up a parliamentary group this week to monitor events, and it appears to be all-party, like similar groups in other European parliaments.

eire4

Catalonia is the most powerful region in Spain economically so whatever about Madrid refusing to recognise the vote later this year a yes vote would certainly strengthen the Catalan hand in terms of negotiating more powers of self governance. My guess would be that this is where things will end up that Madrid will in the end yield more self government to Catalonia.

recedite

eire4 wrote: »

Catalonia is the most powerful region in Spain economically

So what you're saying is that Catalonia yields a nice tax income to Madrid.
That actually works against the Catalans ability to negotiate their own self government.
In the case of Scotland and N. Ireland, the main reason HM govt. is willing to consider any kind of secession is because these regions are considered a drain on the overall UK economy (rightly or wrongly).

An Ciarraioch

The Catalan parliament has announced that it will declare independence immediately if Yes wins the October 1st poll. It seems unionists will vote this time, as a weekend poll saw a 53-47% "Yes" lead, and crucially, a 64% turnout that would satisfy neutral international observers.

http://www.ara.cat/en/The-countdown-begins-expected-turnout_0_1817818283.html

LeinsterDub

Is a Austria-Hungary solution possible here? 2 nations one king, one army?

recedite

Some unionists still not prepared to vote though;

The picture painted by the opinion poll is of massive voter turnout of those who favour a 'yes', with the ‘no’ vote being split. In other words, if we only count those who say they will vote, the ‘yes’ vote would total 67%, while the ‘no’ would stand at just 19%. The remainder would either cast a blank vote or are undecided/refused to answer.

Looks like a win for Yes though, even if everybody turns out.
The question then will be, what will Madrid do in response?
How will the EU react? Support "its" citizens rights, or abandon them and support the Madrid govt.

LeinsterDub

recedite wrote: »

How will the EU react? Support "its" citizens rights, or abandon them and support the Madrid govt.

What right do you feel the EU would be abandoning?
And by EU who do you mean the members states minus Spain and France?

An Ciarraioch

recedite wrote: »

Some unionists still not prepared to vote though;
Looks like a win for Yes though, even if everybody turns out.
The question then will be, what will Madrid do in response?
How will the EU react? Support "its" citizens rights, or abandon them and support the Madrid govt.

Even if the EU accepts the result, based on an adequate turnout, and recognises independence, one imagines Catalonia would have to spend a short spell outside the bloc while the negotiations are in progress, even with being fast-tracked ahead of the Balkans and meeting most legal requirements already. So, even if Spain and France didn't object, I couldn't see re-admission happening in less than two years.

recedite

There is no rule in EU law to say whether the citizens of a successor state retain EU membership or not.
The UN is more clear about it; “if a state is a continuator state then its UN membership will continue, whereas a new state must be formally admitted to membership”.

As there is no clear rule within the EU, the matter would be decided by other EU politicians doing deals with each other, but Spain would have more political clout than Catalan (both being continuator/successor states).

recedite

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What right do you feel the EU would be abandoning?

Well, we saw recently how the EU was very keen to negotiate to uphold "the current rights" of non-British EU citizens living in post Brexit UK, even though it would have no jurisdiction there.
Therefore it should be even more keen to uphold the democratic rights of Catalans, in a post Spain situation.
By EU I mean council of ministers and/or the commission.

LeinsterDub

recedite wrote: »

There is no rule in EU law to say whether the citizens of a successor state retain EU membership or not.
The UN is more clear about it; “if a state is a continuator state then its UN membership will continue, whereas a new state must be formally admitted to membership”.

As there is no clear rule within the EU, the matter would be decided by other EU politicians doing deals with each other, but Spain would have more political clout than Catalan (both being continuator/successor states).

Spain and the EU will reject the legitimacy of the vote. There will be no successor states.

LeinsterDub

recedite wrote: »

Well, we saw recently how the EU was very keen to negotiate to uphold "the current rights" of non-British EU citizens living in post Brexit UK, even though it would have no jurisdiction there.
Therefore it should be even more keen to uphold the democratic rights of Catalans, in a post Spain situation.
By EU I mean council of ministers and/or the commission.

Again this assumes the EU accept the legitimacy of the vote and even if they do the two situations are not analogous.

The UK are entitled to leave the EU. And now they may want to maintain some level of access to certain advantages of EU membership and as such negotiations are are on going. While from the EU perspective the Catalan issue is an internal Spanish issue and the vote is illegal.

HalloweenJack

Do you not remember the rhetoric from the EU when Scotland had the vote?

It was made very clear that they would be outside of the EU and would have to reapply for membership if they voted to leave the UK. I can't see why Catalunya would be treated any differently.

recedite

HalloweenJack wrote: »

Do you not remember the rhetoric from the EU when Scotland had the vote?

It was only rhetoric. There is no actual existing rule for that situation.

LeinsterDub

recedite wrote: »

It was only rhetoric. There is no actual existing rule for that situation.

You're failing to acknowledge there is no situation apart from an illegal vote.

An Ciarraioch

Somewhat complicated by the fact that the Catalans would have preferred a legal vote, but Madrid have consistently refused to sanction this, so hard to see what alternative avenue was available. Much like Kosovo, it will be up to individual countries to decide whether or not to grant recognition, so in the hands of Simon Coveney in our case.

[Deleted User]

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Somewhat complicated by the fact that the Catalans would have preferred a legal vote, but Madrid have consistently refused to sanction this, so hard to see what alternative avenue was available. Much like Kosovo, it will be up to individual countries to decide whether or not to grant recognition, so in the hands of Simon Coveney in our case.

I seriously doubt many will go against an established European nation like Spain

It was easy to recognize Kosovo over the the evil Serbia in the war torn Balkans, far less chance of countries recognizing an Iberian breakaway states.

LeinsterDub

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I seriously doubt many will go against an established European nation like Spain

It was easy to recognize Kosovo over the the evil Serbia in the war torn Balkans, far less chance of countries recognizing an Iberian breakaway states.

Especially when we are all maintaining a united front against the UK and brexit and there are so many potential breakaway regions in Europe

recedite

When you say "breakaway" you need to distinguish between a region leaving the EU (like the UK) and a region wanting to stay in it (like Catalonia).

If the latter, then why would the EU seek to punish it by evicting it from the EU?
In theory the EU should be able to provide a good framework in which lots of small states can co-exist and work together.

If the long term ideal is to consolidate the existing nation states into one big superstate, then it makes sense to discourage the formation of even smaller states. But not many Europeans actually want the superstate.

oscarBravo

recedite wrote: »

...why would the EU seek to punish it by evicting it from the EU?

It's amazing how often this remedial-level point needs to be made about the EU, but: the EU consists of its member states.

When people ask disingenuous questions like "why would the EU want to...?", it's usually because they're carefully avoiding the much more apt question of "why would the EU's member states want to...?"

So: why would the EU's member states want to avoid separatist movements within the Union's member states?

If you still can't understand, I'm sure it could be dumbed down further.

recedite

oscarBravo wrote: »

It's amazing how often this remedial-level point needs to be made about the EU, but: the EU consists of its member states.

That's a fair point, and very apt in this context.

But what I am getting at is the EU is actually more than that. It represents its citizens. For example it upholds human rights and protects the environment within member states, even when the member state itself is the defendant, or the guilty party, in violation of these.
Also it has a parliament of directly elected MEPs. These are supposed to specifically represent the citizens of Europe, and not the member states.

It would be correct to say the Council of Ministers within the EU represents "the current governments" of the member states.

Then there is the European Commision.
And there is a certain amount of tension between all of the above bodies.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has launched a bitter attack on members of the European Parliament for failing to show up.
Standing up in almost empty chamber in Strasbourg, he denounced the body as "ridiculous, totally ridiculous".
Estimating the number of MEPs present at about 30, he said it proved that the parliament was "not serious".
Parliament President Antonio Tajani reacted furiously, accusing him of a lack of respect.
"You can criticise the Parliament, but it's not the Commission's job to control the parliament, it's the Parliament that has to control the Commission," he said.

LeinsterDub

recedite wrote: »

That's a fair point, and very apt in this context.

But what I am getting at is the EU is actually more than that. It represents its citizens. For example it upholds human rights and protects the environment within member states, even when the member state itself is the defendant, or the guilty party, in violation of these.
Also it has a parliament of directly elected MEPs. These are supposed to specifically represent the citizens of Europe, and not the member states.

It would be correct to say the Council of Ministers within the EU represents "the current governments" of the member states.

Then there is the European Commision.
And there is a certain amount of tension between all of the above bodies.

All of that is irrelevant. Each member state has a veto and Spain and others with veto membership forever and a day. Catalonia isn't a successor state. Like Scotland they'll be at the back of the queue.

[Deleted User]

LeinsterDub wrote: »

All of that is irrelevant. Each member state has a veto and Spain and others with veto membership forever and a day. Catalonia isn't a successor state. Like Scotland they'll be at the back of the queue.

They would not even be in the queue.

EU countries will not be willing to recognize a Catalan state if Spain will not.

They will not exist in the eyes of most if not all EU countries.

An independent Scotland would be recognized by EU countries as Westminster would have facilitated the referendum in the first place.

recedite

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

EU countries will not be willing to recognize a Catalan state if Spain will not.

Ireland's first Dail was not recognised by other countries either. But we persisted as an independent nation.

The fact is, its not up to other countries to decide.
“No man has the right to fix the boundary to the march of a nation. No man has the right to say to his country, thus far shalt thou go and no further.” -C.S. Parnell

LeinsterDub

recedite wrote: »

Ireland's first Dail was not recognised by other countries either. But we persisted as an independent nation.

The fact is, its not up to other countries to decide.
“No man has the right to fix the boundary to the march of a nation. No man has the right to say to his country, thus far shalt thou go and no further.” -C.S. Parnell

How long do you think they could exist in the international wilderness?

recedite

How long do you think it would take other countries to recognise their independence?
Would the EU withdraw their rights as EU citizens?
How persistent are the Catalans?
I don't know the answers to these questions. Nobody does.

LeinsterDub

recedite wrote: »

How long do you think it would take other countries to recognise their independence?

Spain may never recognise it