recedite wrote: » When you say "binding", who is going to guarantee the outcome is respected? In the Scottish referendum, London authorised it, therefore the result was guaranteed by the UK. In the Crimean referendum, Kiev did not authorise it, but the result was guaranteed by Russian troops who had been stationed at Sevastopol, since forever. Madrid has always opposed a Catalan referendum. Whose army will guarantee the outcome is respected?
Jep Gambardella wrote: » You only need to worry about an army to enforce the outcome if the Spanish army resists secession. And while the Spanish government will certainly rattle its sabre, when push comes to shove, it's hard to see it militarily blocking a peaceful secession if approved by Catalan voters. The real question is whether the Catalans will be willing to take a leap in the dark, since EU membership is far from certain post-independence.will not happen as long as Spain is in EU
Nody wrote: » Catalan will not be allowed to join EU full stop
Jep Gambardella wrote: » You only need to worry about an army to enforce the outcome if the Spanish army resists secession. And while the Spanish government will certainly rattle its sabre, when push comes to shove, it's hard to see it militarily blocking a peaceful secession if approved by Catalan voters.
recedite wrote: » Catalans are already in the EU, so the question is whether they would be expelled if they voted for independence.
Nody wrote: » Fixed the last sentence in your quote. No country can join without all existing countries agreeing; Catalan will not be allowed to join EU full stop and instead will get to enjoy all the benefits of being outside of EU and be their own country and that's before basic things such as right to fly over Europe deals, import tolls etc. comes in with a wrecking ball to any ideas of sustaining the region. Even if Spain would consider it other countries would veto it simply to stop their regions leaving exactly for the same reason Brexit will leave UK out in the cold.
Nody wrote: » Sorry but there's no question here if Catalan would be recognised or not; the rest of EU has no interest in doing so or encourage it and even if we'd take it to court by the decade it would take to conclude Catalan would no longer exist as a country due to no right to travel into EU countries, no flights, no trade etc.
recedite wrote: » What you're saying here is that the rest of the EU would side with Madrid, and Catalan would be bullied out of existence. But its not all that easy to bully a determined country. "They" tried to bully Icelanders into paying off EU bank debt, and it didn't work.
Nody wrote: » Difference being Iceland already had a healthy trade and sit in the middle of nowhere so access is easy; Catalan would have locked down road access, no flight access etc. and even sea access would be restricted by Spanish Navy doing "inspections". So yes, I'm saying they would be bullied to the point they would lose over 80% of the population in the first six months because they can't live off the land. Since a legal case would take years if not decades to go through all courts and appeals the final result is at best going to be academical value alone because the country of Catalan will no longer exist as it has been absorbed back into Spain (by force if necessary to prevent "terrorists" a safe haven).
An Ciarraioch wrote: » I'm not going to give an opinion either way on the main issue, but if Catalans were ever going to resort to "terrorism", they'd have done so during the Franco era, similarly to the Basques. There was a brief organisation in the Seventies that died almost as soon as it started, and the politicians have already focused on international diplomacy.
NIMAN wrote: » If independence is granted, I plan to bet on Barca winning the Catalan Liga for 50 years straight.
Nody wrote: » I'm not claiming they would resort to it (hence the " " tags); I'm saying they would be accused of harbouring terrorists (be it local, Islamic or made up) as an excuse to invade and integrate it back into Spain again for the greater good. Heck they might even pull off something like the Crimea vote instead (simply need to ask the right population group after all) instead; either way I'd not expect Catalan to exist as a country 5 years later.
Jan_de_Bakker wrote: » And this crap is just a big "We hate Spain" club ... we get it ... Franco was a **** , but he's dead 42 years ... move on !!!
HalloweenJack wrote: » Quite surprised by seeing this but the Spanish Government have offered the Catalan president the chance to speak in Parliament and make his case for Catalan independence. I can only imagine its an empty gesture from PP but we'll see how that goes.
An Ciarraioch wrote: » Hardly, but a Scottish-style agreement would seem the most sensible solution. Now, the nationalists have painted themselves into the absurd corner whereby independence is likely, but in the absence of an agreement with Spain, no country would recognise them!
CruelCoin wrote: » Why is the EU permitting Spain to try block this?
CruelCoin wrote: » Why is the EU permitting Spain to try block this? "For the European Union, respect for this right cannot be disassociated from respect for the freedom and dignity of the individual and for fundamental human rights. The obligation to promote and protect this right is therefore included in full among the commitments given by States in the field of human rights." EU president states its a human right.http://eu-un.europa.eu/eu-presidency-statement-the-right-to-self-determination/ So, why are the Catalans being blocked from self-determination, while the EU has no issue in handing the Spanish veto powers over Gibraltar (who have self-determined that they are british)?
