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2010 Morgan Kelly Article- Ireland is finished

MrMatisse

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1108/1224282865400.html

Seems like its game over for Ireland

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OldMrBrennan83

This post has been deleted.

Samaris

Patww79 wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Why? Should I be punished for not staying in the country, either on the dole for four-five years, or maybe working a min wage job that would mean I would probably need assistance getting into any higher paid work, because the longer it is since you graduated (usually two years), the harder it is to get a first-time position.

You were apparently in a position where you didn't feel you had to emigrate. That's great for you, and it's pretty much down to when you were born. But the notion that you should benefit more from the country more or less being back on its feet than anyone who was forced to emigrate during the recession and returned is short-sighted in the extreme.

Unless you want to pay social welfare for me for another five years until I'm allowed to...er...work or whatever it is you want to withhold from us evil emigres, I'm going to stay in my totally undeserved job, thanks! :P

OldMrBrennan83

This post has been deleted.

valoren

We bought a 3 bed semi last August.

Today in the same estate, 2 beds are going for the same price we paid.
There is one 3 bed for sale, across the road, with the asking price 23% higher than we paid.

Morgan Kelly should be sharpening his pencils.

Yourself isit

Alf Stewart. wrote: »

FG have effectively initiated such a move by excluding them from the first time buyers grant.

That's a chunk of cash, that goes straight to the developers and builders pocket, funded by the rest of us, sure what could go wrong?

Linked to income tax paid in fairness, so that would exclude a lot of emigrants FG are also keen to try and entice home.

Poorly thought out plan iyam.

Unless you think it was designed to make developers richer.

Fred_Johnson

valoren wrote: »

We bought a 3 bed semi last August.

Today in the same estate, 2 beds are going for the same price we paid.
There is one 3 bed for sale, across the road, with the asking price 23% higher than we paid.

Morgan Kelly should be sharpening his pencils.

But you're loving it right because the place you bought is worth 23% more? ;-)

No people, there is not another bubble, get a grip of yourselves. The banks are not lending anywhere near what they were. In fact they need to be lending more, especially in the commercial sector. The financing for all those projects you see with cranes in Dublin are coming from foreign capital.

Wheeliebin30

Fred_Johnson wrote: »

But you're loving it right because the place you bought is worth 23% more? ;-)

No people, there is not another bubble, get a grip of yourselves. The banks are not lending anywhere near what they were. In fact they need to be lending more, especially in the commercial sector. The financing for all those projects you see with cranes in Dublin are coming from foreign capital.

Bit of sense amongst the hyperbole.

Hallelujah.

Alf Stewart.

Fred_Johnson wrote: »

No people, there is not another bubble, get a grip of yourselves. The banks are not lending anywhere near what they were. In fact they need to be lending more,.

Of course they're not, which is why the government stepped in and made the taxpayer stump up the deposits needed by first time buyers, and to make sure it didn't benefit builders and developers only, they restricted to new builds only.

[Deleted User]

There were plenty back in 05 and 06 who could see how things were going. This time around more people can see it. While so far the bubble isn't completely funded by credit the lax lending and bowing to pressure to relax borrowing rules will eventually lead to the same thing again.
Mates of mine went to a city Holland, a higher wage place than Dublin, and they know one lad buying a house for a good bit under 300k, and the government will give him money towards the purchase as well. How can somewhere with higher wages and a more tech-focussed economy be cheaper than crap parts of Dublin? It wouldn't even be possible to build houses to the same spec for the same price in Ireland unless you just left out the cost of land completely. How is that? Ah who care, sure we'll just add 5 years to everyone's mortgage.
All I'm hoping is that the bubble continues for a good while, gives me a chance to get my savings sorted as much as possible then when the inevitable happens I'll have a chance to profit from it rather than the fools who are once again putting us in harm's way.

valoren

Fred_Johnson wrote: »

But you're loving it right because the place you bought is worth 23% more? ;-)

No people, there is not another bubble, get a grip of yourselves. The banks are not lending anywhere near what they were. In fact they need to be lending more, especially in the commercial sector. The financing for all those projects you see with cranes in Dublin are coming from foreign capital.

With no plans to move asking prices are completely irrelevant to me because it's not an investment. If the price dropped 23% in 6 months, I'd feel exactly the same way. Again, if I was an investor I wouldn't be pleased.

If I bought a share for $100 and saw it as a long term investment, then just because someone offers you $125 doesn't mean you'd want to sell.

In terms of bubbles, I would look at housing bubbles in terms of local areas and not collectively nationwide. So a particular town can experience a bubble but another town would see prices stabilize. A boom can become localised. The last housing bubble was nationwide. Everyone had access to cheap credit and with that cheap credit, the pool of house buyers was increased. House prices shot through the roof, pardon the pun. Just get a place was the mentality. The current one is localised to areas that are seen as desireable.

For example, while the Nasdaq 100 was experiencing a bubble for tech stocks in the late 90's, the Dow Jones, with the stolid blue chips merely chugged along.

Just like a stock that can be bid up to the stratosphere, another stock in the same sector might languish. The stock going up experiences a bubble, fundamentals are disregarded, investors want to own it and so the price shoots up. The share starts selling for ridiculous multiples of it's earnings. In time reality bites, the company misses estimates etc, and the asking price comes down in line with fundamentals and people who invested when the valuation was at a ridiculous level lose money.

The same bubble framework works for anything that is 'sold'
So a 23% gain in 6 months. While that might be seen as normal growth over say a decade, that it happened in the space of less than 6 is bubble territory.

elefant

Deleted User wrote: »

There were plenty back in 05 and 06 who could see how things were going. This time around more people can see it. While so far the bubble isn't completely funded by credit the lax lending and bowing to pressure to relax borrowing rules will eventually lead to the same thing again.
Mates of mine went to a city Holland, a higher wage place than Dublin, and they know one lad buying a house for a good bit under 300k, and the government will give him money towards the purchase as well. How can somewhere with higher wages and a more tech-focussed economy be cheaper than crap parts of Dublin? It wouldn't even be possible to build houses to the same spec for the same price in Ireland unless you just left out the cost of land completely. How is that? Ah who care, sure we'll just add 5 years to everyone's mortgage.
All I'm hoping is that the bubble continues for a good while, gives me a chance to get my savings sorted as much as possible then when the inevitable happens I'll have a chance to profit from it rather than the fools who are once again putting us in harm's way.

I'm not sure about other parts of Holland, but Amsterdam is nuts for property prices now too. Pretty much every property going for â‚¬50k+ over asking price, and all sold within days of being put on the market.

[Deleted User]

elefant wrote: »

I'm not sure about other parts of Holland, but Amsterdam is nuts for property prices now too. Pretty much every property going for â‚¬50k+ over asking price, and all sold within days of being put on the market.

Aye Amsterdam is mental alright. It's not Amsterdam I'm on about though. :pac:

KyussBeeshop

Today we're having a cost-of-living boom, without the corresponding benefits of a wage or public spending boom.

It's definitely not the same as last time - what is happening now is the gentrification of Dublin, effectively - that looks to be direct government policy, judging by their recent actions.

Unfortunately, it may be possible for government to keep this up permanently. All they have to do is (like Shane Ross with BE) throw their hands up and pretend like it's not their problem, and refuse to build any social housing.

Our government has even pissed in our face, with the first time buyer grant and easing the central bank deposit rules (leading to a direct acceleration of house prices) - like someone saying "oops..." after throwing petrol on your burning house, to put out the fire, and then insulting your intelligence by claiming they didn't know that would make it worse (basically just a "fuck you" with a big grin - directed at the Irish public).

I mean, the Irish just watched our government do something which has pretty much directly increased house prices (with the corresponding knock-on effect on rents) - just watched our government piss in our face like that - and did NOTHING in response. Nothing at all.

So it's open season again, for fucking over the Irish public. Just done in a slightly different way this time. The population are too fucking stupid to even be cognizant of this, even when it's done blatantly right in front of them - so nothing will be done in response.

It really is amazing how pliable and willing to be fucked over, the Irish public are. It's not even subtle at all.

lawred2

Deleted User wrote: »

Aye Amsterdam is mental alright. It's not Amsterdam I'm on about though. :pac:

well it's not an apples with apples comparison then is it?

lawred2

KyussBeeshop wrote: »

Today we're having a cost-of-living boom, without the corresponding benefits of a wage or public spending boom.

It's definitely not the same as last time - what is happening now is the gentrification of Dublin, effectively - that looks to be direct government policy, judging by their recent actions.

Unfortunately, it may be possible for government to keep this up permanently. All they have to do is (like Shane Ross with BE) throw their hands up and pretend like it's not their problem, and refuse to build any social housing.

Our government has even pissed in our face, with the first time buyer grant and easing the central bank deposit rules (leading to a direct acceleration of house prices) - like someone saying "oops..." after throwing petrol on your burning house, to put out the fire, and then insulting your intelligence by claiming they didn't know that would make it worse (basically just a "fuck you" with a big grin - directed at the Irish public).

I mean, the Irish just watched our government do something which has pretty much directly increased house prices (with the corresponding knock-on effect on rents) - just watched our government piss in our face like that - and did NOTHING in response. Nothing at all.

So it's open season again, for fucking over the Irish public. Just done in a slightly different way this time. The population are too fucking stupid to even be cognizant of this, even when it's done blatantly right in front of them - so nothing will be done in response.

It really is amazing how pliable and willing to be fucked over, the Irish public are. It's not even subtle at all.

so basically you want a cheap house in Dublin City Centre..

Wanderer78

lawred2 wrote:

so basically you want a cheap house in Dublin City Centre..

We can't keep living like this, at what point does 'the market' meet 'equilibrium', when 3 bed semi d's in Dublin hit 1 million, 2 million perhaps? What a scam!

[Deleted User]

lawred2 wrote: »

well it's not an apples with apples comparison then is it?

I suppose you're right. I'm comparing Dublin to a city with higher wages and higher building standards and better transport. Yet Dublin is far more expensive.

KyussBeeshop

lawred2 wrote: »

so basically you want a cheap house in Dublin City Centre..

Yes my post said nothing at all about the housing crisis, and even though not a single sentence in my entire post stated it, it was actually all about me wanting a house in Dublin City Centre.

Well done, that's not at all a completely facile and shit-stirring paraphrasing of my post - not at all aimed at distracting from what I said.

[Deleted User]

lawred2 wrote: »

so basically you want a cheap house in Dublin City Centre..

The issue is that somehow the "city centre" according to some people now covers an area greater than all of Dublin was a few short decades ago.

lawred2

KyussBeeshop wrote: »

Yes my post said nothing at all about the housing crisis, and even though not a single sentence in my entire post stated it, it was actually all about me wanting a house in Dublin City Centre.

Well done, that's not at all a completely facile and shit-stirring paraphrasing of my post - not at all aimed at distracting from what I said.

I don't know... It was all the usual 'blame de gubbernment' type waffle.. Claiming that they are throwing their hands up in the air despite committing to spending 5.5Bn on social housing over the next few years. Maybe you missed that.

How much of other people's money is enough?

How 'affordable' should urban housing be in your opinion?

lawred2

Deleted User wrote: »

I suppose you're right. I'm comparing Dublin to a city with higher wages and higher building standards and better transport. Yet Dublin is far more expensive.

You wouldn't mind informing us all as to the name of this city so that we could all move there?

lawred2

Wanderer78 wrote: »

We can't keep living like this, at what point does 'the market' meet 'equilibrium', when 3 bed semi d's in Dublin hit 1 million, 2 million perhaps? What a scam!

Well when land is at a premium - what are your options? CPOs of private land?

ChikiChiki

KyussBeeshop wrote: »

Today we're having a cost-of-living boom, without the corresponding benefits of a wage or public spending boom.

It's definitely not the same as last time - what is happening now is the gentrification of Dublin, effectively - that looks to be direct government policy, judging by their recent actions.

Unfortunately, it may be possible for government to keep this up permanently. All they have to do is (like Shane Ross with BE) throw their hands up and pretend like it's not their problem, and refuse to build any social housing.

Our government has even pissed in our face, with the first time buyer grant and easing the central bank deposit rules (leading to a direct acceleration of house prices) - like someone saying "oops..." after throwing petrol on your burning house, to put out the fire, and then insulting your intelligence by claiming they didn't know that would make it worse (basically just a "fuck you" with a big grin - directed at the Irish public).

I mean, the Irish just watched our government do something which has pretty much directly increased house prices (with the corresponding knock-on effect on rents) - just watched our government piss in our face like that - and did NOTHING in response. Nothing at all.

So it's open season again, for fucking over the Irish public. Just done in a slightly different way this time. The population are too fucking stupid to even be cognizant of this, even when it's done blatantly right in front of them - so nothing will be done in response.

It really is amazing how pliable and willing to be fucked over, the Irish public are. It's not even subtle at all.

People know its happening. They just choose to ignore it. Apathy is one of our strengths.

[Deleted User]

lawred2 wrote: »

You wouldn't mind informing us all as to the name of this city so that we could all move there?

Really, really not hard to figure out. If you can't then I don't think you'd fit in.

lawred2

Deleted User wrote: »

Really, really not hard to figure out. If you can't then I don't think you'd fit in.

lol

ChikiChiki

lawred2 wrote: »

so basically you want a cheap house in Dublin City Centre..

Should a reasonably priced apartment in Dublin City Centre or at least inside the M50 be possible for many? We need to be building skyscraper apartment blocks to meet the demands of city workers given our growth opportunities.

Forcing people to commute from Mullingar, Portlaoise because of a lack of affordable property is ridiculous.

I'm in Sydney at the moment. 1/4 of my monthly wage including bills goes on rent to an apartment 3km South of the CBD and 1 stop away from Central station. I'm at my desk in 18 mins from leaving my apartment. In Dublin it was 1/3 of my monthly pay not including bills for a place that took 1hr and 15 mins to get to via train.

And yes this Government have proved they are ****ing useless in most matters. They do nothing, absolutely nothing to help reduce the cost of living for those who contribute the most to society

KyussBeeshop

lawred2 wrote: »

I don't know... It was all the usual 'blame de gubbernment' type waffle.. Claiming that they are throwing their hands up in the air despite committing to spending 5.5Bn on social housing over the next few years. Maybe you missed that.

How much of other people's money is enough?

How 'affordable' should urban housing be in your opinion?

Just stop replying to me and stop pretending your post has any relevance to mine - you clearly started out with an attempt to distract from what I said in my post, with a completely facile/trite irrelevant comment - I'm not interested in giving you a hand with that.

[Deleted User]

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Should a reasonably priced apartment in Dublin City Centre or at least inside the M50 be possible for many? We need to be building skyscraper apartment blocks to meet the demands of city workers given our growth opportunities.

Forcing people to commute from Mullingar, Portlaoise because of a lack of affordable property is ridiculous.

And yes this Government have proved they are ****ing useless in most matters.

It doesn't even need to be "skyscraper" development, just decent size. And build some ****ing rail lines.

lawred2

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Should a reasonably priced apartment in Dublin City Centre or at least inside the M50 be possible for many? We need to be building skyscraper apartment blocks to meet the demands of city workers given our growth opportunities.

Forcing people to commute from Mullingar, Portlaoise because of a lack of affordable property is ridiculous.

And yes this Government have proved they are ****ing useless.

It would be great if everyone could afford an apartment at least. Building up would help.

But most of the prime land in Dublin City Centre is already bound up in low density social housing. That's not going to be unwound any time soon. It should be but it won't be.

The largest concentration of land banks available are down in the IFSC and there are higher concentration developments under construction. However land doesn't come cheap down there so these mixed use high cost developments are not going to help much.

Where is the 'cheap' city centre land that will make these social projects affordable?

Zebra3

lawred2 wrote: »

Well when land is at a premium - what are your options? CPOs of private land?

The state CPOs land to build motorways.

Why not CPO land for homes?

Surely the latter is more of a priority?