eeguy wrote: » No, because it relies on facts and records rather than some vaguely worded survey. Self reporting is the most unreliable form of survey. People lie, and they quite often lie to themselves. You may tick the Catholic box out of some misplaced catholic guilt despite not going to mass since you were a child or having no interest in religion outside getting your child christened or going to a wedding. That's not accurate. You'd get a much better idea of church attendance by looking at takings throughout the years. More collection money means more adults attending mass. You can't fake the figures. Sure it's not 100% accurate but it's better than the census
measure of the number of Catholics in the country
much better idea of church attendance
eeguy wrote: » ... More collection money means more adults attending mass. You can't fake the figures. Sure it's not 100% accurate but it's better than the census
Penn wrote: » Exactly. People like David Quinn trot out the same lines each time about how some of the No Religions are still spiritual, still believe in God but might not want to follow the church etc in order to try and make it seem like the number of people who believe in God in Ireland isn't in decline. It is. It is in decline.
Mellor wrote: » A better metric how? Because it suits the antitheology agenda or some other reason.
eeguy wrote: » Regardless, the Census is not an accurate measure of the number of Catholics in the country. A better metric would be to look at church attendance, or even better, church donations from weekly services.
beauf wrote: » I would expect the rate of decline in RC will rapidly as the clergy is vanishing. But even with the decline in 10 yrs RC will still be dominant. Religion should not be in state schools regardless of that.
J C wrote: » Much of this increase may not be due to more people becoming Atheists ... it may be simply people who were Roman Catholic who have been so scandalised by the various revelations about this church, that they no longer identify with any religion - while still believing in God.
beauf wrote: » I wouldn't be worked up about it. If there were any who did. It won't change the trend.
J C wrote: » Yes, the absolute increase in people declaring themselves as having no religion in 2016 was only an increase of 4 percentage points from 2011 (9.83% v 5.88%). Much of this increase may not be due to more people becoming Atheists ... it may be simply people who were Roman Catholic who have been so scandalised by the various revelations about this church, that they no longer identify with any religion - while still believing in God.
beauf wrote: » In fairness school places will effect everyone regardless of any interest or background in religion. It makes sense that people with a background in RC are most likely to be oblivious to it. That's an excellent observation. Many are fair weather Catholics and are content to be that, no more but no less either. I think it's great to see how it changing in the census. Ireland needs change. I thought it would be more dramatic though.
recedite wrote: » There are one or two posting on this forum who have identified as being raised in a non-religious family, and posting here indicates that they are not completely "indifferent" to all matters concerning religion.
Peregrinus wrote: » It’s hard to account for the sharp rise in the “not stated” category, but I’m going to hazard two guesses. The first is that it’s an unintended spinoff from the campaign that encouraged non-believers to tick “no religion”. It may be that some people found the arguments somewhat persuasive, but not convincing, and have responded by dropping their former religious identification, but not ticking “no religion”. The other guess is that this could represent the growth of a truly secular cohort of Irish society who have been brought up in families where religious belief, practice and identification was simply absent. They’re not interested in religion or religious questions and never have been, and “do you believe?” is a question that they have simply never found any reason to try and answer. As I say, they’re just wild guesses.
darjeeling wrote: » There must be quite a lot of couples where one is religious and the other isn't. Not least because there are getting on for ~50k fewer women with no religion than men. Maybe some of these couples are putting their children down as religious?
Peregrinus wrote: » What’s more interesting, though, unbelief is at it’s highest in among those in their thirties, who are presumably the parents of children aged under 10, where unbelief is below average. Are unbelieving parents recording their children as believers? I doubt that. The only explanation I can think of is that unbelievers have fewer children, but I can’t see any obvious reason why that should be so.
darjeeling wrote: » Among younger working age adults (25-44), only 73% were born in Ireland and 14% have no religion. We don't yet know what percentage would be Catholic, but in 2011 it was 80%, so it will now be lower. In 2011, 32% had degrees. Among the over-65s, 92% were born in Ireland (most of the rest were UK born) and 3% have no religion. In 2011, 91% of this age group were Catholic, and 10% had degrees. These growing differences between generations mirror those seen in the US, UK and other Western European countries. As there, we've also seen a breakdown in confidence in established political parties here. But we haven't seen the kind of backlash movements that led to Brexit, Trump and might yet elect Marine le Pen. I wonder why is that?
Cabaal wrote: » Perhaps, however you can use past census data to see that there's been a steady decline in catholic's in Ireland, this is also reflected in the church's own data about weekly mass attendance which has seen a drop from 50% in 2006 to 30% in 2011.. Based on the census data we are pretty safe to assume that mass attendance is now below 30% number set in 2001 given the 6% drop in Catholics in all of Ireland since 2011 based on the census data. So we can make pretty good guess's on future trends. We merely need to catholic church to survey mass attendance again to merely confirm the drop in weekly mass attendance. Come the census in another few years I'd expect to see the catholic percentage dropping another few percentage points, Given the highest group of non-religious are in the 20-30 age bracket and this bracket are also the biggest group putting kids into school their kids are also likely to be non-religious over time which will only reinforce the drop in Catholics in Ireland.
beauf wrote: » Actually no we're extrapolating future trends based on that census. Its still assumptions.
beauf wrote: » I don't think you are around kids that much. Most I know have zero interest before secondary school.
Mellor wrote: » ...We're referring to the actual results, not assumptions about the next one...
Mellor wrote: » A few reasons, is consider myself as having no religion, as would a lot of my friends would too, but if you asked me at in my teens, I'd have prob stuck down catholic in a blink without thinking , I'd imagine a lot of similar age would too. It's a mature, adult realisation. It's not something kids are bothered with. As with the gay acceptance you mentioned, the level of NR is no doubt increasing among teens. But I think others will continue only make that decision in their mid-20s
beauf wrote: » Actually that was my second post. My first was saying the pattern of immigration had changed. it has changed between census and it wasn't what I had assume (experienced either).
But much of this thread is making assumptions. I can't say ridiculous or irrelevant to another assumption because it doesn't suit my argument. If you ever done stats, or data mining, it often shows up something different than you are expecting. As we can see between census the pattern of immigration has changed significantly for those groups.
smacl wrote: » Not saying you're wrong, but what's the logic behind that? My own limited experience from my daughter's friends at that age was that while they were going to a Catholic school and no doubt were listed as Catholic by their parents most of them have no use for the church when asked. I suspect that while some would consider themselves Catholic as a default position, as many would not due to the authoritarian and often regressive position of the church.
