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Spring 2017 - General Discussion

JCX BXC

Tomorrow, the 1st of March, we may see local spot flooding, strong winds and possibly snowfall by evening.

No other way to start Spring!

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Oneiric 3

Was not a 'Spring' thread just opened just a couple of days ago?

It isn't that exciting a season that we need two separate threads for it. :P

Oscar Bravo

yep here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057710197

JCX BXC

That's kind of a look ahead thread for the sun lovers into the Spring and Summer is it not?

I'm sure the mods will do what they find more suitable.

MJohnston

My pedantic self says that other thread is poorly titled and likes the conformative naming at play in this thread.

coillsaille

Spring is here alright (officially at least), so will posts about the wind event tomorrow be in this thread so or will it get it's own I wonder?

RobertKK

Possibility of blizzard conditions on high ground tomorrow?

nagdefy

If you look at the opposite end of the year, the start of autumn in September, it's not unusual to start off with 25 or 26C daytime temps and nights in the mid teens. So the same for March it is as normal to start off wintry as any spring like conditions.

Also September and October (the first 3 weeks at least) often provide lovely dry weather with temperatures close to 20C and the weather can be quite summer like, and in many cases better and drier than summer, only with shorter days. March and April are a little like that in the way they can sometimes feel more wintry than the winter months. Frost at night, sleet, snow on hills, a lot of hail, cold north west to north easterlies. In April the sun can be strong and feel lovely in the shade and next thing the wind rises, cuts you in two and you have hail and sleet.

The transition to colder weather in the autumn and warmer weather in the spring is often a long process.

Now you get exceptions. September and October 1992 and October 1993 were very autumnal and bordering on wintry at times. March 2012 was exceptionally mild and almost like the month of May, late spring.

RobertKK

Seems to be a lot of potential snow in the forecast, especially for south Leinster and the east.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Tomorrow

A wet start in the southwest, but most other areas dry tomorrow morning with some sunshine in the midlands and north, and frost clearing. Rain will spread northeastwards through the afternoon, turning heavy in places with local spot flooding possible, but much of Ulster will stay dry until evening apart from scattered showers. Becoming very windy in parts of Munster and south Leinster with possibly severe winds in coastal fringes. Rain will turn to snow in places especially later in the day. Top temperatures just 5 to 8C.

Outlook

Thursday: A cold and cloudy day with scattered outbreaks of rain, turning more persistent across the south of the country during the afternoon /evening; highs of 6 to 8 degrees in moderate southwest breezes. Rain continuing in the south overnight, may turn to snow in parts of south-Leinster. Otherwise cold and frosty.

Friday: Rain mixed with sleet and snow will continue to develop over Leinster and parts of Munster during the day. Connacht, Ulser and west Munster will remain largely dry. Highest temperatures of 4 to 7 degrees. Further rain and snow in the east and southeast overnight, cold and frosty elsewhere.

Saturday: Last of the rain and snow gradually clears from the east during Saturday; most other parts of the country dry, and brightening everywhere during the day. After a cold and frosty start temperatures will rise to between 6 and 8 degrees. Cold and frosty again overnigh

Jpmarn

After a quiet and mild winter March could turn out the most wintry month yet. GFS models on netweather.tv is suggesting it.

Andy From Sligo

I got another yellow weather warning for wind on my phone for wednesday 13:00hrs to Thursday 5am

M.T. Cranium

Quite unusual to find that some models develop a small but vigorous low later Wednesday into Thursday early morning, track from central Connacht to north Leinster, and others have almost no development. I can see the seeds for this low on the current satellite imagery. If the models with no storm come on board on the 00z runs then we should go with a level one thread on this risk, similar areas to Doris but not as strong. Even the stronger depictions would suggest 55-60 knot gusts at worst. Would think 40-45 knots for Dublin (06z Thursday), a bit stronger than that in north Leinster.

Let's revisit this around 0600h and get a thread started if appropriate.

Graces7

The wind howled and rattled all yesterday from the small hours until very late and heavy rain.

Finally got some sleep then.

Seems a small lull this morning so hoping to head out for supplies before the next gale.

Grateful for all the advanced warnings. Thanks everyone..

Doctor Shivering

BBC news 24 has tonight's rain extensively turning to snow for a time across a huge swathe of the midlands across even to Dublin
Large dumps on high ground by the looks of it

Kermit.de.frog

An interesting evening ahead.

munsterlegend

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

BBC news 24 has tonight's rain extensively turning to snow for a time across a huge swathe of the midlands across even to Dublin
Large dumps on high ground by the looks of it

Met Eireann still have it in their forecast for this morning particularly for Leinster. I presume the heavy precipitation must be a factor.

Gaoth Laidir

Still looks like sleet for low levels. The latest Arpege sounding for around Mullingar during the heaviest precip later shows no scope for evaporative cooling as the wet-bulb temperature is well above zero in the lowest few hundred metres.

sondagearpegefr_265.57000732421875_445.6399841308594_18_0_1488362012.png

sondagearpegefr_265.57000732421875_445.6399841308594_18_0_1488362012.png

sondagearpegefr_288.57000732421875_464.6399841308594_18_2_1488361418.png

Macy0161

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

BBC news 24 has tonight's rain extensively turning to snow for a time across a huge swathe of the midlands across even to Dublin
Large dumps on high ground by the looks of it

Yeah, noticed that on last nights 10.40 forecast too - seemed to be pretty widespread and not just white on the small/ highest parts of Wicklow.

highdef

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Still looks like sleet for low levels. The latest Arpege sounding for around Mullingar during the heaviest precip later shows no scope for evaporative cooling as the wet-bulb temperature is well above zero in the lowest few hundred metres.

So based on that, would the snowline be looking to be around 500m or so, lying snow that is (for Mullingar in this case)? It seems at odds with some of the forecasts but then again, one or more of them are going to be wrong if they are forecasting different things.

Would you give an estimate as to at what height one would want to be to see proper falling snow, even if not sticking? I know there are many attributes to take into account such as distance from the sea, latitude, etc. Lets say east midlands, as that looks like the area most likely to get any snow, if any.

Doctor Shivering

Gorgeous so far in south Wicklow and feeling warm in the sun

Meteorite58

Overcast and calm here in Tralee, a few drops earlier has turned to light rain. 8C approx

Fenit short time ago, most of the snow melted/ washed away.

Gaoth Laidir

highdef wrote: »

So based on that, would the snowline be looking to be around 500m or so, lying snow that is (for Mullingar in this case)? It seems at odds with some of the forecasts but then again, one or more of them are going to be wrong if they are forecasting different things.

Would you give an estimate as to at what height one would want to be to see proper falling snow, even if not sticking? I know there are many attributes to take into account such as distance from the sea, latitude, etc. Lets say east midlands, as that looks like the area most likely to get any snow, if any.

Snow will start to melt soon below the zero isotherm but how much melt is determined by the humidity (wet bulb temp). As this is above zero and close to the temperature then there is no scope for evaporative cooling so the positive temperature will melt the snow unabated. But it will take a couple of hundred metres for this to occur so the we should still see some wet snow above about 200 metres.

JCX BXC

Lashing here in West Clare, big drops.

sryanbruen

March - Rather warm, wet and sunny.
April - Warm, dry and sunny.
May - Very cool, dull and wet.

So these are my Spring predictions I set in December. I'm not allowed change them but if I could, I would 'cause I'm not happy with April's prediction at the moment.

To go into detail, these are the temperature anomalies I expect (from December's 2017 predictions)

March; +0.4 to +0.8c above the LTA
April; +1.0 to +1.6c above the LTA
May; -1.5 to -1.0c below the LTA
Spring; -0.2 to +0.4c below/above the LTA (mixed Spring temperature wise)

These are the precipitation % of LTA I expect (from December's 2017 predictions)

March; 110-130% of the LTA
April; 80-90% of the LTA
May; 105-120% of the LTA
Spring; 105-115% of the LTA (a rather wet Spring)

I'm seeing April to be a wetter month than I had anticipated. April is shaping up to have the jet stream to the northwest of Ireland (from reanalysis of forecasts) bringing a southwesterly regime which means wet and warm for us in April.

Other than that, I don't see any different expectations from my predictions I set in December.

Just remember that I have extremely low confidence for this Spring as it's been the most difficult season for me to forecast ever thanks to the QBO :cool:.

JCX BXC

Perhaps one of the most rapid changes of Weather I've seen in a while is at Cork airport.

At 2pm it was 7c with visibility of 5000m , wind from the south at 8knots

At 2:30pm it is now 1c and reporting 1500m with moderate graupel! Winds are 20kts gusting 37kts!

Anyone at Cork?

DOCARCH

JCX BXC wrote: »

Perhaps one of the most rapid changes of Weather I've seen in a while is at Cork airport.

A few sparks thrown in for good measure too! http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Buffalobill29

Is it going to be cold this evening with showers on low ground and some wet snow above 200m? Specifically for the east?

riggerman

Looking West here in cork and it looks like a mountain of snow speeding it way towards us. Sunny at the moment, and yes I know it's not snow but the wind is howling and pushing the cloud front down onto the landscape. Some sight I tell ya

nacho libre

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

Is it going to be cold this evening with showers on low ground and some wet snow above 200m? Specifically for the east?

There maybe wet snow at lower levels tonight in the Midlands and east, but it won't stick. Sleet already developing in the west, and bits of snow in the south, probably over high ground, according to the radar

highdef

That's what I am reckoning as well. Perhaps some sticking snow on some of the "lower" hills like Hill of Allen, etc.

pedigree 6

Absolute downpours here atm in wexford with hail thrown in.

The airmass sure changed from the mild air this morning and noon.