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Mayo constituency GE2020

Loafing Oaf

Which, according to Paddy Power, is 2/9 to take place this year.:)

Anyone got any inside info?

Is Michael Ring planning to run again? If so, he's presumably a dead cert as always. As are Calleary and Chambers I'd say. After that it's a tougher call but I reckon Michelle Mulherin has a decent shot at a comeback, given the conservatism of the electorate...

Apologies to the mods if it's 'too soon' to be starting this conversation.

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nuac

I doubt if political discussion ever entirely abates in Mayo.

Big question is if Enda retires entirely from politics and who will replace him.

I think we are likely to have elections more often. Enda might stand in next election to help with Brexit work, and have an orderly succession to his seat.

Loafing Oaf

I had assumed he would automatically stand down as TD after leaving office as Taoiseach, it would be very much against precedent to do otherwise but I don't know if he has explicitly stated this.

I don't think if Ring stands again there will be any issue with 'replacing' Enda, surely Ring and Mulherin will be the only 2 FG candidates?

I think FF have an outside shot at a third seat, don't know if they have a viable candidate though?

irishgeo

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I had assumed he would automatically stand down as TD after leaving office as Taoiseach, it would be very much against precedent to do otherwise but I don't know if he has explicitly stated this.

I don't think if Ring stands again there will be any issue with 'replacing' Enda, surely Ring and Mulherin will be the only 2 FG candidates?

I think FF have an outside shot at a third seat, don't know if they have a viable candidate though?

I don't think anyone wants mulherin back.

nuac

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I had assumed he would automatically stand down as TD after leaving office as Taoiseach, it would be very much against precedent to do otherwise but I don't know if he has explicitly stated this.

I don't think if Ring stands again there will be any issue with 'replacing' Enda, surely Ring and Mulherin will be the only 2 FG candidates?

I think FF have an outside shot at a third seat, don't know if they have a viable candidate though?

I assume you do not live in Mayo.

There will be more than Ring and Mulherin in the hunt for nominations. Check in the local papers for the expanding lists of clinics on offer.

I often wonder how the politicians can talk to whoever appears at the pub or community hall, and then speed to the next appointment. Especially in rural areas it takes some time to get to the point.

There are many variables.

E.g. whether the "lost" voters now in GalwayWest are brought back

Whether we will again have a five seater.

There will be no shortage of candidates for nominating conventions

E.g. on the FG side there is mention of Enda's daughter, and also of Patsy O'Brien of Hollymount who has polled highly in LA elections.

Michelle Mulherin is likely to seek a nomination. She made a good effort to hold the third of the the former four FG seats at last GE. The BLue Wave supporting a Mayo Taoiseach had ebbed somewhat ( the fourth seat went on constituency revision )

She may face opposition from Jarlath Munnelly, a county councillor who is involved in Educate Together.

Ml Ring had built up a solid personal vote over elections, and will hold it whether or not Enda is around

Loafing Oaf

nuac wrote: »

I assume you do not live in Mayo

There are many variables.

E.g. whether the "lost" voters now in GalwayWest are brought back

Whether we will again have a five seater.

There will be no shortage of candidates for nominating conventions

I do but only recently moved back from Dublin, am not really that well up with things. Is it likely to be restored to 5 seats, I thought stuff like that would have been set in stone long ago...

nuac

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I do but only recently moved back from Dublin, am not really that well up with things. Is it likely to be restored to 5 seats, I thought stuff like that would have been set in stone long ago...

Welcome back.

If you are any use at Gaelic football pls report to your local club. It is all hands on deck for All Ireland.

Nothing in life, particularly in politics, is set in stone

farmchoice

the way the wind is blowing nationally will have a big effect in mayo next time around.

ring thought long and hard about running last time so maybe he wont go again.
its hard to see enda running again after stepping down from the top job.

so its possible FG might have no sitting td running again!!! hard to believe but possible.

if ring does run he will be elected, as for mulheirn well she did better then expected last time but she is kenny's creature, without him the likes of jarlath munnelly would fancy getting the nomination plus she might have blotted her copybook one too many times, the carry on with the all Ireland tickets last years was horribly embarrassing.

FF seems in rude good health chambers preformed excellently last time around and will improve again callearly should get elected but he will have to be careful and he and chambers will have to work as a team next time. there is a feeling that her star is rising while his is on the wane and the ballina area electorate are volatile and capable of giving him a slap.

the easiest call is 2 FF 2 FG but there is definitely room for a good independent or even SF to have a real go in mayo but is the day of the independents over and SF were riding high in the last two elections and didn't make the breakthrough so why this time?

its questions like that that make me think this time out mayo will really reflect the national mood.

Water John

As an outsider, please don't inflict Michelle on us.
Foot in mouth too many times.

Loafing Oaf

farmchoice wrote: »

the way the wind is blowing nationally will have a big effect in mayo next time around.

ring thought long and hard about running last time so maybe he wont go again.
its hard to see enda running again after stepping down from the top job.

so its possible FG might have no sitting td running again!!! hard to believe but possible.

if ring does run he will be elected, as for mulheirn well she did better then expected last time but she is kenny's creature, without him the likes of jarlath munnelly would fancy getting the nomination plus she might have blotted her copybook one too many times, the carry on with the all Ireland tickets last years was horribly embarrassing.

FF seems in rude good health chambers preformed excellently last time around and will improve again callearly should get elected but he will have to be careful and he and chambers will have to work as a team next time. there is a feeling that her star is rising while his is on the wane and the ballina area electorate are volatile and capable of giving him a slap.

the easiest call is 2 FF 2 FG but there is definitely room for a good independent or even SF to have a real go in mayo but is the day of the independents over and SF were riding high in the last two elections and didn't make the breakthrough so why this time?

its questions like that that make me think this time out mayo will really reflect the national mood.

That's a good point about Mulherin, the new leader might well be keen to see the back of her (especially if it's Leo perhaps?). As a former TD and sitting senator though, it would seem against the FG way not to let her run again.

Ditto re the Inds and SF, they've been talked up for the last number of elections but it always ens up just the big two. Maybe if there was one charismatic Mick Wallace-style Ind who really captured the county imagination, enthused younger voters...

Water John

There is room in most larger constituencies for an Indo. As long as they have some character/personality. Ming and Fitzmaurice, two diff type of people, took the same vote.

voz es

If it go's to a five-seat Kilcoyne might run.

With regard to Michelle Mulhern, She was rejected by her electorate and Fine Gael felt it Okay to give her a new public representative job anyhow. Basically ignoring an electorate decision.

Loafing Oaf

voz es wrote: »

If it go's to a five-seat Kilcoyne might run.

Would he not go anyway? Seems like the last seat is there for the taking by an anti-establishment candidate (big ask for FG to take two seats if neither Kenny nor Ring are running).

Of course that was said the last time...

voz es

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Would he not go anyway? Seems like the last seat is there for the taking by an anti-establishment candidate (big ask for FG to take two seats if neither Kenny nor Ring are running).

Of course that was said the last time...

You don't rate him?

Loafing Oaf

voz es wrote: »

You don't rate him?

Don't know anything about the guy, just surprised that he would run in a five-seat constituency but not a four-seat one, if that's his position...

Water John

Some Indos got in on 3 seat constituencies.
Not saying I'm for or against.

shenanagans

Will Kenny's daughter be a candidate? If not in the next GE than at some point in the near future.

Loafing Oaf

Water John wrote: »

Some Indos got in on 3 seat constituencies.
Not saying I'm for or against.

With just as traditional voting patterns as Mayo. Like I say I know very little about Kilcoyne buy you have to think if he was a really strong candidate he would have been elected last time...

nuac

voz es wrote: »

If it go's to a five-seat Kilcoyne might run.

With regard to Michelle Mulhern, She was rejected by her electorate and Fine Gael felt it Okay to give her a new public representative job anyhow. Basically ignoring an electorate decision.

That could apply to any defeated Dáil candidate who then runs for the Senate in order to /keep on serving the people/continue Oireachtas career/continue her crusade/campaign for/against [ insert good/bad cause ] etc

nuac

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Don't know anything about the guy, just surprised that he would run in a five-seat constituency but not a four-seat one, if that's his position...

A five seater is far more favourable to an independent than a fourseater.

Do the sums

Loafing Oaf

shenanagans wrote: »

Will Kenny's daughter be a candidate? If not in the next GE than at some point in the near future.

She may have to be fast-tracked. If both Kenny and Ring stand down and another young FG candidate from south county is elected her chance could be gone.

I'm beginning to realise it's very hard to say anything substantial about this election until we know what's happening within FG...

Dudda

farmchoice wrote: »

....as for mulheirn .......the carry on with the all Ireland tickets last years was horribly embarrassing.........

I'd forgotten that. Just remembered the Kenya phone calls and the Fornification comment.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

She may have to be fast-tracked. If both Kenny and Ring stand down and another young FG candidate from south county is elected her chance could be gone.

I'm beginning to realise it's very hard to say anything substantial about this election until we know what's happening within FG...

Very true. Until we know who from FG is running it's hard to call.

voz es

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Don't know anything about the guy, just surprised that he would run in a five-seat constituency but not a four-seat one, if that's his position...

It's quite expensive to both run as a candidate and provide the exposure required. Also there is a lot of support for a likely winner, Mayo is always going to be 2fg 2 ff, so as it politics you got to make the electorate know their vote is not being wasted

Loafing Oaf

nuac wrote: »

That could apply to any defeated Dáil candidate who then runs for the Senate in order to /keep on serving the people/continue Oireachtas career/continue her crusade/campaign for/against [ insert good/bad cause ] etc

Yeah those senate seats are part of the Taoiseach's patronage, they have to be given to someone. We the voters had our chance to sweep away that whole system and turned it down. To me it speaks to Enda's decency and personal loyalty that he gave two of those seats to Mulherin and O'Mahony, I'm sure he could have found many more politically 'useful' destinations for them...

voz es

nuac wrote: »

That could apply to any defeated Dáil candidate who then runs for the Senate in order to /keep on serving the people/continue Oireachtas career/continue her crusade/campaign for/against [ insert good/bad cause ] etc

Are you saying you agree with the concept or not?

Coillte_Bhoy

farmchoice wrote: »

the way the wind is blowing nationally will have a big effect in mayo next time around.

ring thought long and hard about running last time so maybe he wont go again.
its hard to see enda running again after stepping down from the top job.

so its possible FG might have no sitting td running again!!! hard to believe but possible.

if ring does run he will be elected, as for mulheirn well she did better then expected last time but she is kenny's creature, without him the likes of jarlath munnelly would fancy getting the nomination plus she might have blotted her copybook one too many times, the carry on with the all Ireland tickets last years was horribly embarrassing.

FF seems in rude good health chambers preformed excellently last time around and will improve again callearly should get elected but he will have to be careful and he and chambers will have to work as a team next time. there is a feeling that her star is rising while his is on the wane and the ballina area electorate are volatile and capable of giving him a slap.

the easiest call is 2 FF 2 FG but there is definitely room for a good independent or even SF to have a real go in mayo but is the day of the independents over and SF were riding high in the last two elections and didn't make the breakthrough so why this time?

its questions like that that make me think this time out mayo will really reflect the national mood.

By voting overwhelmingly for FG and FF?

irishgeo

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

By voting overwhelmingly for FG and FF?

considering the balls of things shane ross is making of transport people will be vary of voting for the other parties.

Loafing Oaf

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

By voting overwhelmingly for FG and FF?

To the extent that if there is a major swing against Fine Gael they may lose one of their seats. That's as far as political revolutions go in Mayo I'm afraid...

[Deleted User]

shenanagans wrote: »

Will Kenny's daughter be a candidate? If not in the next GE than at some point in the near future.

If anybody votes for Kennys daughter or any other relative of him they need their heads checked.
Mayo with Roscommon is one of the most deprived counties in the country. Our local TD Enda Kenny while leader of the country purposely decided to completely ignore Mayo in case he was accused of favoritismby the media.

He ignored Knock airport and at the same time handed an 11 million yearly rent roll of state lands to Shannon airport to keep them viable at Knocks expense. He is a coward/traitor to the county and should be send packing on the back of a donkey. I doubt you will find a Taoiseach in history that has neglected his own constituency as much as Kenny.

in my opinion of course

Then there is always those few around here who would like nothing better than to kiss his ass in the hope that he might actually say hello to them or get there sons and daughters a civil service job and allow them to return from London or Dublin.

voz es

Deleted User wrote: »

If anybody votes for Kennys daughter or any other relative of him they need their heads checked.
Mayo with Roscommon is one of the most deprived counties in the country. Our local TD Enda Kenny while leader of the country purposely decided to completely ignore Mayo in case he was accused of favoritismby the media.

He ignored Knock airport and at the same time handed an 11 million yearly rent roll of state lands to Shannon airport to keep them viable at Knocks expense. He is a coward/traitor to the county and should be send packing on the back of a donkey. I doubt you will find a Taoiseach in history that has neglected his own constituency as much as Kenny. in my opinion of course

Then there is always those few around here who would like nothing better than to kiss his ass in the hope that he might actually say hello to them or get there sons and daughters a civil service job and allow them to return from London or Dublin.

Who is getting your votes then?

[Deleted User]

voz es wrote: »

Who is getting your votes then?

I have always voted Fine Gael, but will have to see who is up for election. I'd vote any party that would improve the economy in the west. I'd have no problems voting for Mulherin or Ring, they have both tried there best for Mayo with the power they had. Mulherin was even sanctioned by Kenny for exposing/ and embarrassing him on how badly he treated Knock airport.