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The decline continues

IRE60

Via the Campaign site - report on the worsening state of print. (Cant find it on Neilsons' site). Some of the budget cuts are savage:

Newspaper revenues fall amid talk of joint ad sales

The national newspaper advertising slump has worsened since the Brexit vote, with revenues crashing 18% year on year in August, making it the worst-performing month of the year so far.

Print ad sales dived 14%, or £95m, in the first eight months of the year to £575m from £670m in the same period a year ago, according to Nielsen.

Newspapers got a brief respite around the Brexit referendum, when ad sales fell only 4.5% in June and 11% in July. Every other month this year has seen a fall of at least 14%.

The newspaper print ad market fell 13% in 2015 and 9% in 2014.

A number of high-profile brands abruptly slashed their print ad expenditure in favour of Facebook and other digital channels.

Tesco cut spend by 85% year on year in the first eight months of 2016 to £1.8m, O2 reduced its outlay on print ads by 45% to £4m and Marks & Spencer dropped its spend by 28% to £7m.

Worsening revenues will add to pressure on newspaper owners to consider pooling their ad sales in a single sales house in order to gain scale in their negotiations with media agencies, improve efficiency and cut costs.

News UK, Trinity Mirror, Telegraph Media Group, Guardian Media Group, DMGT and Northern & Shell have been in talks since at least May, when Campaign first reported that discussions had begun.

Steve Booth, chairman of MC&C and co-founder of BLM, has been leading the initiative, dubbed Project Juno.

Newspapers are understood to have commissioned Enders Analysis and lawyers to report on how a joint ad sales house might work and the likely obstacles emerging from a Competition

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expectationlost

IRE60 wrote: »

Telegraph splitting content - killing paywall and access to "premium" content at £2 a week - not available through f/b. It's a good start!

http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/telegraph-axes-metered-paywall-launches-premium-service/1414403

the fall of hard paywalls! happy to have opinion behind a paywall, saves the rest of us from it, see the Independent has "datawall" on its opinion pieces now

IRE60

Maybe it just had to be spelled out - in detail - all very true

https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/oct/24/a-print-publishing-reality-advertisers-not-readers-are-the-customers

expectationlost

IRE60 wrote: »

Maybe it just had to be spelled out - in detail - all very true

https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/oct/24/a-print-publishing-reality-advertisers-not-readers-are-the-customers

something highlighted to me when I learned Spike TV was original started by Insurance company as channel to place its ads. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nashville_Network

IRE60

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/before-one-off-costs-times-newspapers-made-11-2m-last-year-but-the-sun-lost-48m/

JTMan

Dirty Desmond is bailing out of his sinking ship ...

Trinity Mirror and David Montgomery are looking to acquire 80% and 20% respectively of Northern and Shell. Northern and Shell own 50% of Independent Star who publish the Irish Daily Star. If the acquisition goes ahead, Independent Star will be 50% owned buy INM, 10% owned by Trinity Mirror and 40% owned by David Montgomery. More from the Indo here.

IRE60

There's a bit of 'smoke and mirrors' when Desmond nearly pulled the plug on the Irish Daily Star agreement (Royals with the guns out pic). After there was a 'license' agreement if I remember correctly and the ins and out of that I don't know.

There is massive replication, currently, in traditional media outlets. Each paper replicating the other in the backrooms - and someone will look at streamlining that.

Interesting one here
http://www.independent.ie/business/media/proposed-acquisition-of-celtic-media-group-by-inm-referred-for-review-35360591.html

The Celtic media deal is being referred for a full media merger review to the BAI. While the CCPC looked at (and approved) the proposed deal the BAI look like it will take a 'helicopter' view. The CCPC looked at individual markets, seven I think, and concluded there was no threat to those markets.

However the bigger view has to be considered. The newspaper group would increase its footprint, on a national basis, substantially should the deal go ahead. Lets not get onto the other media interests of the largest shareholder of IN&M and how, again if the deal went ahead, that may dovetail into a sprawling media company.

JTMan

A Mirror-Express merger would once have been huge. Now it’s just hugely depressing

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/15/mirror-express-merger-clare-hollingworth?CMP=twt_a-media_b-gdnmedia

Back then the Daily Mirror sold 5.1m copies a day. Now that’s 733,000. Back then the Daily Express sold 3.9m. That’s a mere 396,000 today. And the figures of Sunday declines are even more staggering. From 4.2m at the Sunday Express to 341,000. From 5.5m at The People to an ever-shrinking 248,000.

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Such shrinkage, of course, is the driving force behind any deal. Richard Desmond, like other Express owners before him, has been content to squeeze every last sliver of profit out of accelerating decline. But all squeezed things finally die.

IRE60

In an effort to try and stop hemorrhaging money, the Guardian are looking (seemingly) at dropping their current newsprint format - Berliner - and moving to a tabloid format - slightly smaller.
It would mean that they could move away from their current press which they built and commissioned - first used in 2005.
Depending on how they did the accounting, they could have written down the press at this point.
They are reportedly looking to farm out the printing - there are many options in terms of plants if they move to a tabloid, They could also farm out the pre-press now that it has moved to a 'standard' tabloid format.
Interesting times

IRE60

Interview with Roy Greenslade before he signs off

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/roy-greenslade-interview-no-blog-or-start-up-sets-the-agenda-or-holds-power-to-account-like-newspapers-still-do/

Thinks that one or two nationals will disappear in the next few years. Interesting comment about Ireland!

JTMan

The New York Times results are out. Despite the headlines that Trump is wrong that the NYT is 'failing', the results, from an account perspective are not good.

FT article here.

Digital success is not yet offsetting an industry-wide slump in print advertising, however, and the company’s revenues and profit both declined in the quarter and for the full year.

Fourth-quarter net income sank 28 per cent to $37.1m, or 23 cents a share, from $51.7m, or 32 cents a share, the previous year. Revenue was down 1 per cent to $439.7m, as declines in print advertising offset gains in circulation and digital advertising.

jmcc

JTMan wrote: »

The New York Times results are out. Despite the headlines that Trump is wrong that the NYT is 'failing', the results, from an account perspective are not good.

FT article here.

Think that there was a comment from the NYT a while ago that it wouldn't engage in clickbait journalism (Danny Sullivan of Search Engine Land mentioned it, I think). They may have to rethink that so that they can target the clickbait at the proper demographics. Wonder how the SBP and the IT are doing with their paywalls? Also noticed that the Indo now has a begging notice (please turn off the adblocker) when you use an adblocker on the site.

Regards...jmcc

Loafing Oaf

Latest ABCs, thread title seems entirely appropriate despite IT spin:

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/media-and-marketing/irish-times-reports-15-rise-in-customers-paying-for-digital-content-1.2978411

JTMan

Why was the separate thread on the ABCA numbers deleted?

Excellent iLevel analysis on the numbers here: http://www.ilevel.ie/media-blog/print/102928-irish-newspaper-circulation-july-dec-2016-island-of-ireland-report

Michael O Toole

Why was IRE60 banned?

Loafing Oaf

Examiner and SBP round 30K. How are these papers still operating?

Delacent

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Examiner and SBP round 30K. How are these papers still operating?

That'd be over 120,000 readers if you believe their figures.

I can never understand how the media can claim readership of 4 adults per copy

L1011

SBP attracts specialist advertisers for their audience makeup and charge accordingly. It's borderline profitable. Examiner - no idea.

Loafing Oaf

L1011 wrote: »

SBP attracts specialist advertisers for their audience makeup and charge accordingly. It's borderline profitable.

So theoretically the circulation decline can continue indefinitely: as long as Peter Sutherland a few of his mates are still buying they'll keep publishing.

JTMan

Michael O Toole wrote: »

Why was IRE60 banned?

At a wild guess, for posting links to his blog. Great shame. He added a lot of value here. I have contacted the mods, would encourage others to do the same.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Examiner and SBP round 30K. How are these papers still operating?

Examiner (Landmark Media Investments) is still going thanks to massive cost cutting with a large number of staff let go, an examinership and restructure, AIB financial support and family financial and ownership ties.

SBP is still going thanks to Conor Killeen and his personal financial support for the paper.

Back to the ABC results:
- The Herald, The Irish Daily Star, the Sunday World are all screwed. Circulation is down circa. 60% inside the last decade of so. No real digital strategy that is working. D day cannot be far away.

An Ciarraioch

JTMan wrote: »

At a wild guess, for posting links to his blog. Great shame. He added a lot of value here. I have contacted the mods, would encourage others to do the same.

Examiner (Landmark Media Investments) is still going thanks to massive cost cutting with a large number of staff let go, an examinership and restructure, AIB financial support and family financial and ownership ties.

SBP is still going thanks to Conor Killeen and his personal financial support for the paper.

Back to the ABC results:
- The Herald, The Irish Daily Star, the Sunday World are all screwed. Circulation is down circa. 60% inside the last decade of so. No real digital strategy that is working. D day cannot be far away.

The Examiner still has a regional market in Cork, Kerry and Limerick, so looking at that 30k in terms of a Munster context, it may be manageable. See they've moved to free member registration to access online articles - is this the first move towards a paywall?

JTMan

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Examiner still has a regional market in Cork, Kerry and Limerick, so looking at that 30k in terms of a Munster context, it may be manageable. See they've moved to free member registration to access online articles - is this the first move towards a paywall?

Distribution costs are a large post to a publisher. The Examiner has a nationwide distribution cost.

Loafing Oaf

JTMan wrote: »

- The Herald, The Irish Daily Star, the Sunday World are all screwed. Circulation is down circa. 60% inside the last decade of so. No real digital strategy that is working. D day cannot be far away.

That day never seems to come though. When the Tribune closed I would have confidently predicted another few casualties within five years...

JTMan

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

That day never seems to come though. When the Tribune closed I would have confidently predicted another few casualties within five years...

Newspapers are, in general, being kept alive by cost cutting. Costs are being cut as quick as revenue declines. The problem is that there is a limit to this strategy because costs can only be cut so far. Some costs are largely fixed such as distribution costs and some admin costs and there is a minimum number of staff needed to run a newspaper. Many newspapers are getting close to a tipping point where costs exceed revenue and nothing can be done to address it. They only avenue at that stage is closures.

L1011

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

So theoretically the circulation decline can continue indefinitely: as long as Peter Sutherland a few of his mates are still buying they'll keep publishing.

There's a floor - I'd guess it'd be somewhere between 15-20k. Many specialist magazines would be on even less although they're monthly, not weekly. I know how much ads/advertorials in some of the SBP supplements cost and they don't appear to have much trouble selling them.

JTMan

L1011 wrote: »

There's a floor - I'd guess it'd be somewhere between 15-20k. Many specialist magazines would be on even less although they're monthly, not weekly. I know how much ads/advertorials in some of the SBP supplements cost and they don't appear to have much trouble selling them.

I would not say that there is a floor that is a rigid floor. Yes, there are a bunch of rich people that will buy the SBP no matter what but these rich people will die and the newer generation will shun newspapers.

Agreed that it is surprising how much advertising the supplements attract in the SBP given how very people read them.

JTMan

Oh no ... Landmark Media Investments (who own the Irish Examiner and multiple other newspapers, radio stations and online sites) have appointed KPMG according to the Sunday Times. Also, INM many be interested in the Irish Examiner. More here.

I suspect that we will hear more my LM / KPMG very soon.

Loafing Oaf

JTMan wrote: »

Oh no ... Landmark Media Investments (who own the Irish Examiner and multiple other newspapers, radio stations and online sites) have appointed KPMG according to the Sunday Times. Also, INM many be interested in the Irish Examiner. More here.

I suspect that we will hear more my LM / KPMG very soon.

Any thoughts as to why the INM might be interested in the Examiner JTMan? Repackaging it as the 'Indo Munster edition' perhaps?

JTMan

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Any thoughts as to why the INM might be interested in the Examiner JTMan? Repackaging it as the 'Indo Munster edition' perhaps?

I think that an outright acquisition of the Irish Examiner by INM will not pass the competition authorities. INM and LMI know that. Hence, the proposed link is something else.

What link could be established without compeition issues?
- Distribution.
- Printing.
- Admin.

Other options:
- Examiner and Indo joining up for a joint publication in Munster as you suggested but this might have competition concerns and cost issues.

INM refused to comment today but the Indo article says that INM are "focused" on the Celtic Media acquisition. Translation might be that INM will not pursue an Irish Examiner link until the Celtic Media acquisition is complete.

KPMG are probably looking at a series of options for the future of LM.

Delacent

JTMan wrote: »

I think that an outright acquisition of the Irish Examiner by INM will not pass the competition authorities. INM and LMI know that. Hence, the proposed link is something else.

What link could be established without compeition issues?
- Distribution.
- Printing.
- Admin.

Other options:
- Examiner and Indo joining up for a joint publication in Munster as you suggested but this might have competition concerns and cost issues.

AKA what the did to the Sunday Tribune and use it as a buffer from other media.

Didn't that close?

There will be a day when one of the major newspapers in UK or Ireland will move its daily news online and have a "weekend" paper - and that day may be sooner than many expect with The Guardian being favourite as its top broadsheet onlien but languishes near the botoom of the "paid" paper chart.

Would INM try this with "The Examiner"?

JTMan

Delacent wrote: »

Would INM try this with "The Examiner"?

Back to the main problem ... the competition authorities will have a canary if INM want editorial control over the Examiner. Daily or weekly. I think it is highly unlikely to be approved.

That said, yeah, the next step might be for some publications to move from daily to weekly. However, the problem with this, is they cut their circulation revenue and advertising revenue very significantly by doing this. Print revenue is still bread and butter for all but a small number of publications.

On a side note, Press Gazette have 2 articles here and here on the ongoing continuous decline of the regional press in the UK. It does not matter if the paper is daily or weekly, they are all in freefall.