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Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

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A new thread for a new Season. I hope the season brings everybody weather joy and happiness!

Good enough start to Winter here in Dublin 16. -0.7c atm.

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sryanbruen

engol wrote: »

We do thankfully. Yours as stated here doesn't really have a tremendous amount of relevance to the point at hand though. If someone was to wander in here looking for a bit of winter weather discussion and trying to avoid snow threads see, then stating an opinion like "wtf are you all still talking about snow for" would be relevant at that time. Wandering on to a 150 page thread about snow and stating that opinion might not in fairness. ;-)

Well if snow wasn't as rare as it is in Ireland, do you think the thread would be filled with snow obsession posts?

sryanbruen

Of how this Winter has been so far, it is among my favourites despite the disappointment :P

1. Winter 2010/11
2. Winter 2009/10
3. Winter 2004/05
4. Winter 2000/01
5. Winter 2016/17

Eamondomc

engol wrote: »

Is this a snow lovers appreciation thread or a general winter weather discussion thread?

I find the obsession with snow in Ireland bordering on the ridiculous.

I'd say its a discussion on what the weather is and the variables it produces across the country, a small country where weather can vary so much in just a few miles and even a few hours time.
No harm in wishing for what we don't normally get, in summer I'd be hoping for long dry and sunny weeks of weather and cursing us not getting it, in winter I'd be hoping for long dry cold spells, not necessarily with snow, but at least that I can get out and work without getting wet, nothing I hate more than wet or foggy weather.
I like to see and hear first hand reports from other posters of their weather conditions as compared to mine.
But for snow or really sunny conditions on a continuous basis, except occasionally, we need to be talking to a travel agent.

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Of how this Winter has been so far, it is among my favourites despite the disappointment :P

1. Winter 2010/11
2. Winter 2009/10
3. Winter 2004/05
4. Winter 2000/01
5. Winter 2016/17

and the main reason for you listing this winter is for the overall calm/dryness?

the only thing stopping me from being dissapointed with this winter is the same reason. There is nothing I hate more than day after day of wind and rain week after week.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

and the main reason for you listing this winter is for the overall calm/dryness?

the only thing stopping me from being dissapointed with this winter is the same reason. There is nothing I hate more than day after day of wind and rain week after week.

Yes I love this calm, dry nature.

sryanbruen

Not a great six months ahead at all of what the CFS is showing:

February - Rather average rainfall and mild.
March - Rather wet and mild but northern blocking

.
April - Very wet yet mild

.
May - Very cool and wet with a northerly wind.
June - Fairly average with warm and rather dry conditions.
July - Very cool and wet with a northerly wind like May.

A very poor start to the Summer is predicted by the CFS right now. Of course it's all just for fun but knowing Ireland's climate, this will probably be what it will be like, PLEASE BE WRONG.

At this stage, February is not looking as mild as it was but it is still looking rather mild. Quite a boring end to this extremely benign Winter

ArKl0w

Listening to RTÉ Gold,Larry Gogan is playing the chart of Jan 9th 1982,the week of the famous blizzard
There was seriously great music then and slow sets

Meanwhile while our high has to go somewhere eventually either northwest or Northeast or North
Currently it can't really go south
So patience people and see what happens

nagdefy

ArKl0w wrote: »

Listening to RTÉ Gold,Larry Gogan is playing the chart of Jan 9th 1982,the week of the famous blizzard
There was seriously great music then and slow sets

Meanwhile while our high has to go somewhere eventually either northwest or Northeast or North
Currently it can't really go south
So patience people and see what happens

Some great memories alright

This is a great site for UK hits, if you want to find out what was number 1. on your birthday or the top 40 at the time. For me it's Tina Charles with 'I Love to Love'!

www.everyhit.com

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Not a great six months ahead at all of what the CFS is showing:

March - Rather wet and mild but northern blocking .

Well, maybe the cfs thinks an SSW might set up blocking, albeit in the wrong place to deliver a cold spell(much like now). A block that is too far west for instance in a west based nao. As for February, a few long range forecasters were predicting a more active Atlantic than is normal for this month. I really hope we don't get really cold weather in late February into March, knowing our luck that will probably happen.

gerrybhoy

sryanbruen wrote: »

Not a great six months ahead at all of what the CFS is showing:

February - Rather average rainfall and mild.
March - Rather wet and mild but northern blocking .
April - Very wet yet mild .
May - Very cool and wet with a northerly wind.
June - Fairly average with warm and rather dry conditions.
July - Very cool and wet with a northerly wind like May.

A very poor start to the Summer is predicted by the CFS right now. Of course it's all just for fun but knowing Ireland's climate, this will probably be what it will be like, PLEASE BE WRONG.

At this stage, February is not looking as mild as it was but it is still looking rather mild. Quite a boring end to this extremely benign Winter .

Seriously ...are you the donegal postman or James Madden?

sryanbruen

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Seriously ...are you the donegal postman or James Madden?

Neither. You seriously did not read my post properly: "Of course it's all just for fun". I was only saying what the CFS was showing, obviously I don't believe it or take it seriously.

pa990

So, with the last "artic blast" being a tad over exaggerated,

What's in store for the rest off the month ?

[Deleted User]

Rain, sleet, snow, frost, sunshine, mild and cold weather. Oh & the odd rainbow

fraxinus1

My old neighbour who told me that January and February will bring no snow might just be right yet... wink wink

Gonzo

fraxinus1 wrote: »

My old neighbour who told me that January and February will bring no snow might just be right yet... wink wink

In most year's he's probably right. To me the term 'no snow' means no decent snowfall. A dusting or flurries doesn't count as 'snow' in my book. When people talk about 'snowfall' it should mean a snow spell that lasts a few hours an deposit's a few inchs of snow. What we got over past few days in no way equals 'a snowfall'. Snowfalls here only open between 1-3 times every 10 years. 2010 was intense snowfall, however we most years unfortunately we can't even get one 1/5th of that.

Harry Palmr

If the HP position is as predicted then there is no chance of snow or even much rain to speak of for 12 days at least!

John.Icy

A bizarre enough 18z tonight considering how the trend away from blocking for now has been at the fore with less and less interest for the next week or two. Even from +120-170 we have everything working out and heights going where we want them and lows going where they need to. It doesn't quite work out with a sustained block to our NW but just goes to show how a tweak or two of a few features and you get a much more favorable evolution towards blocking - blocking in the right place too (I for one weep at a modeled Scandi high, they never seem to work out...Atlantic always seems to scupper them by stopping them from getting into the necessary place. If they do get in place, orientation often equals Ireland on the mild side or a very slack SE flow or even with a good set up, they get pushed back very quick - give me heights to our N/NW anyway of the week).

Nothing to get hopes up about anyway as one run does not = trend, but its added a little bit of renewed intrigue to the mornings run if anything.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Lovely.

https://www.facebook.com/LouthWeather/videos/1325615414127015/

Pat Dunne

sryanbruen wrote: »

Not a great six months ahead at all of what the CFS is showing:

February - Rather average rainfall and mild.
March - Rather wet and mild but northern blocking .
April - Very wet yet mild .
May - Very cool and wet with a northerly wind.
June - Fairly average with warm and rather dry conditions.
July - Very cool and wet with a northerly wind like May.

A very poor start to the Summer is predicted by the CFS right now. Of course it's all just for fun but knowing Ireland's climate, this will probably be what it will be like, PLEASE BE WRONG.

At this stage, February is not looking as mild as it was but it is still looking rather mild. Quite a boring end to this extremely benign Winter .

So which predictions are you going with, yours or CFS?

Due to 2016 being a unique year in terms of the QBO or solar activity, I am not highly confident on these predictions for the coming year as I was with my 2016 ones:

January - Very cold and rather wet but sunny.
February - Fairly mild, wet and dull.
March - Rather warm, wet and sunny.
April - Warm, dry and sunny.
May - Very cool, dull and wet.
June - Pleasantly warm and dry. Very sunny.
July - Very sunny, dry and warm.
August - Warm, wet and dull.
September - Fairly cool, wet and sunny.
October - Very wet, stormy and mild.
November - Another very sunny November but wet and mild.
December - Cold, dull and fairly dry.

Like I did with 2016, I am not allowed change any of these predictions during the course of the year under any circumstances. Please can I get July right this year!
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102117775&postcount=1

sryanbruen

Pat Dunne wrote: »

So which predictions are you going with, yours or CFS?

Mine. I base my predictions on patterns, not what models are showing.

Pat Dunne

sryanbruen wrote: »

Mine. I base my predictions on patterns, not what models are showing.

Thats easy to do, I'll give my own a lash.

Winter, dull, the odd sunny day, a couple of Atlantic stroms, a bit of frost and the Internet clamering for snow.

Spring, slight rise in temperatures, some sunny days, dull and wet and the usual final sting in the tail from winter.

Summer, a few additional sunny days, a scorching 3/4 days at the start of June with everyone on the interweb predicting it to last for months, then rain, dull and miserable.

Autumn, Sept and Oct usually the nicest months of the year weatherwise. After that its downhill with the intenet folk predicting a "White Christmas". But in reality its dull, miserable, wet, mild and stormy all in the same week.

They're the patterns I observed for over 50 years and like yourself I'll stick with them as well.

Clonmel1000

Dirty morning here damp cloudy but mild enough. Weather for week looks good mainly dry not to cold and some brightness. Just realised that we are only half way really to the clocks going forward again. It's too long I think we'd be better off if they changed at end of Feb.

sryanbruen

Pat Dunne wrote: »

Thats easy to do, I'll give my own a lash.

Winter, dull, the odd sunny day, a couple of Atlantic stroms, a bit of frost and the Internet clamering for snow.

Spring, slight rise in temperatures, some sunny days, dull and wet and the usual final sting in the tail from winter.

Summer, a few additional sunny days, a scorching 3/4 days at the start of June with everyone on the interweb predicting it to last for months, then rain, dull and miserable.

Autumn, Sept and Oct usually the nicest months of the year weatherwise. After that its downhill with the intenet folk predicting a "White Christmas". But in reality its dull, miserable, wet, mild and stormy all in the same week.

They're the patterns I observed for over 50 years and like yourself I'll stick with them as well.

By patterns I mean:

QBO, AO, NAO, SW, El Nino / La Nina etc.

Squeaksoutloud

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Dirty morning here damp cloudy but mild enough. Weather for week looks good mainly dry not to cold and some brightness. Just realised that we are only half way really to the clocks going forward again. It's too long I think we'd be better off if they changed at end of Feb.

Agreed..it's madness they don't change at end of February and give us an extra month of spring long evenings. Must check but think 28th Feb sunrise and sunset times would be better than when we change over end of October.

ArKl0w

Sunny here today but very windy
It's actually nice to be honest

pedigree 6

sryanbruen wrote: »

By patterns I mean:

QBO, AO, NAO, SW, El Nino / La Nina etc.

Right i'll add my own little prediction for 2017.:D

This is for the southeast of Ireland.

Based on a rough link to El Nino and La Nina conditions giving stormy and wet weather to Ireland and the middle between El Nino and La Nina (neutral) giving dry conditions to the southeast. With ENSO heading back into neutral territory and predicted to stay this way till October.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2017-enso-update-happy-new-year

I'm predicting a drier than normal spring and drier than normal summer and perhaps wetter than normal autumn and winter as it heads back into El Nino conditions.

You heard it here first.;)

sryanbruen

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Right i'll add my own little prediction.:D

This is for the southeast of Ireland.

Based on a rough link to El Nino and La Nina conditions giving stormy and wet weather to Ireland and the middle between El Nino and La Nina (neutral) giving dry conditions to the southeast. With ENSO heading back into neutral territory and predicted to stay this way till October.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2017-enso-update-happy-new-year

I'm predicting a drier than normal spring and drier than normal summer and perhaps wetter than normal autumn and winter as it heads back into El Nino conditions.

You heard it here first.;)

And my predictions show a wet Spring, dry Summer, very wet Autumn and a rather dry start to Winter. So we're both on the same page with a dry Summer and a wet Autumn.

sryanbruen

pa990 wrote: »

So, with the last "artic blast" being a tad over exaggerated,

What's in store for the rest off the month ?

Bland, quiet, calm weather.

Clonmel1000

Is the beast from the east being widely touted here last week dead in the water?

esposito

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Is the beast from the east being widely touted here last week dead in the water?

For now yes, but if the hp shifts to a favourable position who knows, things could get interesting in a couple of weeks time