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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.

0z280Bf.png?1

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JCX BXC

How cold can we expect? If we're not getting snow it can at least compensate with a few days of a nice severe frost!

Captain Snow

JCX BXC wrote: »

How cold can we expect? If we're not getting snow it can at least compensate with a few days of a nice severe frost!

Cold Frosty weather. Inland Ice days. We may get a few Flurries on the East
coast.

nagdefy

JCX BXC wrote: »

How cold can we expect? If we're not getting snow it can at least compensate with a few days of a nice severe frost!

Always good to prepare the ground for decent snowfall..it all sticks and melts less quickly

nagdefy

FI is a kind of twilight zone at the moment. The Atlantic is quiet enough. There's cold near enough to the north and east but it doesn't look like reaching us. The weather won't be warm next week but won't be too cold either.

Anyone for an oul SSW?;)

Meteorite58

Well a quite week to catch our breath again and let the brief wintry spell just gone by sink in and analyze its development and delivery. The week ahead set to be dominated yet again by Hp. The UKMO holding Hp firm up untill the end of its run, ECMWF showing a breakdown of the weather around the 23 leading to a Lp system coming in from the Atlantic moving in over the country at the end of it's run at T240h.Long way off. Uppers to me don't seem particularly cold next week in general, frosts perhaps with clear nights, winds in general don't look particularly strong either.

Iancar29

The only really cold enough GEFS run that would bring some wintry ppn chances IMO .

With the quiet atlantic and a strong signal for a SSW event, Im sure we will be back on the roller coaster soon.

nagdefy

It's one of those FI stages in mid winter where there doesn't appear to be any short to medium term snow/cold. I'll try and self impose a 4 day ban on model watching. Often helps one to refresh and synoptics may have changed after the few days.

Having said that i could end up looking at this evenings ecm:D

mickger844posts

nagdefy wrote: »

It's one of those FI stages in mid winter where there doesn't appear to be any short to medium term snow/cold. I'll try and self impose a 4 day ban on model watching. Often helps one to refresh and synoptics may have changed after the few days.

Having said that i could end up looking at this evenings ecm:D

That's the right way forward I think. No real encouraging signs in any of the models today. A cold turkey few days will recharge the batteries.
The clock is ticking though. Half way through January already. Hopefully a change in fortune going forward towards the end of the month.

nagdefy

The return of the Jet Stream?

gfs-0-186.png?18

12Z ECM too..

ECM1-240.GIF?16-0

Actually i feel, in an unusual way, it might be no harm. A cold period might come from it more quickly than from all the high pressure we've had this winter. As some posters pointed out a SSW during this type of Atlantic pattern brought us a cold, snowy spell in February 2009.

Rebelbrowser

Actually both the 12z ecm and 18z gfs differ a fair bit from their immediate predecessors and both have interest toward the end with the gfs showing a v cold toppler and ecm showing lots of cold in east Europe moving westward. Perhaps this is the effect of the upcoming ssw showing changes in the otherwise presumed pattern? Long shots I know....

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Actually both the 12z ecm and 18z gfs differ a fair bit from their immediate predecessors and both have interest toward the end with the gfs showing a v cold toppler and ecm showing lots of cold in east Europe moving westward. Perhaps this is the effect of the upcoming ssw showing changes in the otherwise presumed pattern? Long shots I know....

It's all we have Rebelbrowser. Still ECM can shag off with their 10 day teasers- unless something comes of this one:)

Comhrá

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Yep, with the Atlantic back in charge from next Tuesday

The older I get, the more the Atlantic regime appeals to me.

snaps

The ecm seems always to have some sort of high pressure over Scandinavia towards end of its run.

ArKl0w

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Yep, with the Atlantic back in charge from next Tuesday

The Atlantic has been 100% in charge all winter unless there was a continental feed at some point that I slept through?
Mid Atlantic High
GB&Irl high with Atlantic air inflow
Northwesterly with huge Atlantic air modification

Yup Atlantic Atlantic Atlantic

snaps wrote: »

The ecm seems always to have some sort of high pressure over Scandinavia towards end of its run.

Ah 240
Always a bridesmaid never a bride

pedigree 6

There's some draw of mild air on this chart.
It looks like it could be 13/14/15c if this comes off. Unsettled though.

Meteorite58

Fairly benign weather for the next 4 or 5 days with Hp holding on, after that it would seem to me an increase in southerly winds Mon , Tues Weds and getting quite strong on Weds according to the GFS and ECMWF. No real rain to speak of at present until maybe Weds or Thurs next week.

[Deleted User]

Latest GFS & ECM runs seem like horror shows if you want snow! They want to bring in a record early appearance of summer..... Heres the ECM chart at +240. Is that some sort of tropical feature to the west of the Azores?

Meteorite58

Yea looking out into the far reaches of the model runs it would suggest more zonal and to me it looks like the Jet gets stronger and more organised and fires up the Atlantic with possible stormy weather for us in late Jan / early Feb.

pad199207

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Yea looking out into the far reaches of the model runs it would suggest more zonal and to me it looks like the Jet gets stronger and more organised and fires up the Atlantic with possible stormy weather for us in late Jan / early Feb.

At this stage I'll have it !

Comhrá

pad199207 wrote: »

At this stage I'll have it !

Spring arrives!

Meteorite58

The GFS showing windy and wet weather next weekend ( possibly quite windy at times )with a series of low's in what's looking like an unsettled spell of weather .
Also showing unsettled weather the week after with quite a few Lp's .

Iancar29

:pac:

nacho libre

Still on the subject of straw clutching: the cfs chart i mentioned:

cfsnh-3-3-2017.png?00

It would be a real kick in the teeth if we saw this happen during March. Also pedigree's poor grass...:D

Meteorite58

A long way out at T+240 , models showing similarities for some possibly windy / stormy weather perhaps although the models showing quite a trend for downgrades at the moment. A lot of Hp over Europe at times keeping much of the weather coming across the Atlantic moving North away from us.

Next week end not too bad although Monday looks like it could be wet and windy at this stage IMO. ( need to get a lot of wood cut over the week end ! )

Darwin

Yes, the 6z GFS is looking like a horror show in the later frames from about +288h onwards. There are at least three big storms in the picture, we take a direct hit from a monster bullseye around 8th February. Plenty of time for things to chop and change though. ECM model at least looks a little more interesting from a coldies perspective.

Iancar29

Todays cherry pickin... :pac:

Looks similar kind of setup to this time 4 years ago

Jan 2013.

Rain all day nearly at low levels, roughly 4 or 5c of what i can remember, but was pretty much all snow up in the mountains.

Was pretty special...

pedigree 6

This low pressure system is in an unusual position to the south of Ireland.
There could potentially be flooding on the high tide in Waterford and New Ross from this.
(If we have strong winds and just going on the wind direction).
Something to watch anyway.

Iancar29

pedigree 6 wrote: »

This low pressure system is in an unusual position to the south of Ireland.
There could potentially be flooding on the high tide in Waterford and New Ross from this.
(If we have strong winds and just going on the wind direction).
Something to watch anyway.

Yeah ECM has it too, classic East coast flood risk at high tide.

sryanbruen

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah ECM has it too, classic East coast flood risk at high tide.

Reminds me of the infamous 22-25 October 2011 floods of how the low pressure is situated.

I know it's bad for me saying this but I hope it comes off. I've been adoring this Winter of how bland it's been but I want at least one extreme to happen.

Funny how the GFS yesterday had it all the way down to Iberia possibly bringing the jet stream southwards but that's out of the way now as expected :rolleyes:.

ninebeanrows

Well the 12z EC run is fascinating. Certainly we could be on the cusp of a great model flip. It was almost certain we would see the development of a strong zonal flow but after this mornings EC step back and this evenings intriguing output that is very much uncertain.

Definitely the most interesting period of model watching in medium term for a few years at least.