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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Just looking ahead into the next couple of weeks to see what might be in store. It would seem to me that after the week coming being under the influence of a weaker more unorganized Jet Stream ,next Weekend on from the 24th gets more organised with a strong Zonal flow producing quite an amount of low's moving up off the coast and then the Jet goes more Meridional with the models predicting lows coming in from the South. It was a recent Meridional jet that introduced warmer tropical continental air with record breaking Temperatures followed by heavy rainfall for some.It also proved a very difficult time for forecasters to predict as there was a big change in forecasts in only a few days with fast forming troughs and lows forming.

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Captain Snow

Some thing for us to watch next week.

AN Atlantic low pressure system running into cold air moving west over Ireland. Potential SNOW STORM....

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

Monday the 23rd of January is looking very bitter with north-easterly winds. Looks to be a brief 24 hour shot at snow. No doubt this will change and probably not happen. Of course this is 10 days away!

Yep as the GFS is retrogressing the high pressure to Greenland. The ECMWF is also showing retrogression but the northerly never makes it to us on it. Potential stratospheric warming still on the rise with red colours now appearing on the chart for 29 January.

Gonzo

Monday the 23rd of January is looking very bitter with north-easterly winds. Looks to be a brief 24 hour shot at snow. No doubt this will change and probably not happen. Of course this is 10 days away!

rbelmc

looking at the Swedish weather service(www.smhi.se) and Danish weather service(www.dmi.dk) there is only cold weather forecast there for the next 5 days or so and back up to relatively mild for them by next weekend at just above zero so we may have to wait a bit longer for anything decent from the East yet

Rock Lesnar

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Whatever about FI the uncertain period seems to be next weekend whether we get an easterly or not.

On the bbc forecast this morning the easterly looked like it just about made it to the east coast and stopped, while the majority of Ireland basked in mild temperatures

pedigree 6

Whatever about FI the uncertain period seems to be next weekend whether we get an easterly or not. But in the meantime this coming week looks fine and dry.
It'll be good for getting outside and getting some work done.
This rain on sunday looks like missing us and going into Britain.
So time to wrap up and get outside. Enjoy the weather.

kkontour

Some nice eye candy on the GFS for the 23rd

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

To my untrained eye that's a very decent GFS 18Z. The high not sitting over us and potential for cold/snow.

Not a bit of what many posters term 'Atlantic Muck' in sight. Great for those who suffered so badly with flooding last year that there's a lot of dry weather to come first too.

But possibly a horrible March like 2013 again

nagdefy

To my untrained eye that's a very decent GFS 18Z. The high not sitting over us and potential for cold/snow.

Not a bit of what many posters term 'Atlantic Muck' in sight. Great for those who suffered so badly with flooding last year that there's a lot of dry weather to come first too.

ArKl0w

nacho libre wrote: »

Matt Hugo ramping again:

Re; this from the ECMWF it has 'hints' of 2010 in terms of blocking. It's a pattern that would most certainly aid in bringing cold weather. i'm not getting on board this rollercoaster, unless he is saying the same thing at t24

Yeah he's some man for the ramp
Mind you Sherlock Holmes over on net weather who is somewhat of a guru on anomaly charts but not a ramper reckons the likelihood is that the high will settle far enough north to do the business and then probably retrogress up towards Iceland doing the 2010 thing

All of which would be tonnes better than this northwesterly half hearted effort

snowstorm445

GFS 18z quite good actually, pushes the easterly further west into Ireland and gives a nice blocked pattern next weekend. Winds look quite slack though and the uppers aren't great until the weekend.

nacho libre

Matt Hugo ramping again:

Re; this from the ECMWF it has 'hints' of 2010 in terms of blocking. It's a pattern that would most certainly aid in bringing cold weather. i'm not getting on board this rollercoaster, unless he is saying the same thing at t24

511

nacho libre

Another day 10 chart full of potential.:pac: Seems to be the trend of this winter, especially with the ecm. We can be sure if we had a blocking high in the right place, it wouldn't prove as durable as this wretched mid latitude block

LEIN

ArKl0w wrote: »

Terrible ecm 12 Z tonight
High pressure sitting on top of us no easterly

Us east coasters need a decent easterly for a decent dumping of snow.

munsterlegend

Hooter23 wrote: »

It will probably be different again by tomorrow I notice alot the models pick up on a idea then drop it only to go back to original idea again...keep dreaming anyway:pac:

It's all we have!

Hooter23

ArKl0w wrote: »

Terrible ecm 12 Z tonight
High pressure sitting on top of us no easterly

It will probably be different again by tomorrow I notice alot the models pick up on a idea then drop it only to go back to original idea again...keep dreaming anyway:pac:

ArKl0w

Terrible ecm 12 Z tonight
High pressure sitting on top of us no easterly

nacho libre

58776b14300eb_12January2017850s.gif.2abe5a7664f63786e991a12bbc214628.gif

Some very cold air flirting with the south east of England there in 10 days time, it won't exactly be mild in the east of Ireland if this comes to pass.

snowstorm445

D9Male wrote: »

GFS 6Z has weakened the easterly even further. There is still some hope but it is disappearing.

Weatherfiend, we seem nailed on to be on the warm side of things Saturday through Tuesday. Things will cool down a bit as the high moves, but it looks like won't move north enough (and pressure won't drop enough to our south) to establish a decent easterly for Ireland.

I disagree, if anything it's deepened the cold, we just need it to shift a bit further west (some parts of the country already getting cold by the looks of it). Main thing is getting the easterly set up.

Main thing I'm worried about is that this will follow the classic pattern of being delayed and constantly pushed back. Let's see.

D9Male

I think the models have done a very good job of getting the overall pattern right over the past few weeks. Small details can have big effects on whether it will snow in someone's back garden, but the transition from a NW flow to a settled period with a high sliding from our SW over us has been modelled nicely. It just doesn't go far enough!!!!

D9Male

GFS 6Z has weakened the easterly even further. There is still some hope but it is disappearing.

Weatherfiend, we seem nailed on to be on the warm side of things Saturday through Tuesday. Things will cool down a bit as the high moves, but it looks like won't move north enough (and pressure won't drop enough to our south) to establish a decent easterly for Ireland.

weatherfiend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

If it wasnt for the brief mild interlude on Sunday, snow falling tomorrow would hang around on north facing surfaces for quite a while....

Sorry I know this is fi but a quick question - is there any chance the mild air this weekend won't happen?

snowstorm445

GFS very good this morning but the ECM not so much, the high pulls too Far East and cold weather only reaches southern Britain but not Ireland. Good charts nonetheless but still time for improvement.

Rebelbrowser

The 18z gfs is pretty good too, certainly in terms of it being mostly cold for the next 2 weeks. Hope all this promise starts materialising as of tomorrow!

nacho libre

My word if we could only bank this chart- as good as you could possibly hope to see

ArKl0w

Rougies wrote: »

True, if we have a source of precip like the low at 240hrs we're good. But it's also worth pointing out we would need the colder uppers to produce Irish Sea snow showers.

Not necessarily,there was plenty of Irish Sea activity in December 2010 with uppers somewhere between-2 and -6c
That's because shallow lows developed with little or no wind,Cold surface air in place

Rougies

ArKl0w wrote: »

Couple of points
Easterlies don't need as low uppers as they travel over much more land than sea
Consequently they can have very low dew points with the surface air they bring in
This is type of already frozen conditions our easterly will be traveling over

https://twitter.com/severeweathereu/status/819264825129861120

True, if we have a source of precip like the low at 240hrs we're good. But it's also worth pointing out we would need the colder uppers to produce Irish Sea snow showers.

ArKl0w

Couple of points
Easterlies don't need as low uppers as they travel over much more land than sea
Consequently they can have very low dew points with the surface air they bring in
This is type of already frozen conditions our easterly will be traveling over

https://twitter.com/severeweathereu/status/819264825129861120

PokeHerKing

T minus how many hours are we at if the beasterly confirms lads? NW is too hard to follow, charts just constantly get pushed back to 240+.. are we anywhere near a realistic time yet?