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Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

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A new thread for a new Season. I hope the season brings everybody weather joy and happiness!

Good enough start to Winter here in Dublin 16. -0.7c atm.

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munsterlegend

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Latest Euro4 out now. Not much on the accumulated snow for same timescale but next update tonight should tell more.

You probably should put this in the thread for Thursday/Friday?

pedigree 6

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Joan blackburn on Radio just now. cold and wintry tomorrow night, ulster connaught and munster to expect accumulations of snow but little or no snow further east.

Anyone remember the fall of snow in limerick in January 2015? That came in from the west as well.
It was on the 20th Jan 2015. There was disruption too but the snow was gone by that evening.

http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/community/198754/Heavy-snowfall-causes-traffic-chaos-in.html

Rebelbrowser

squarecircles wrote: »

I notice it seems to be rain along all exposed coastlines in the west.

To be honest they always overdo that coastal thing. Basically a mile from the coast you might be in trouble but its hard to represent that on a map. Just from my own experience in Cork city, they often show rain when snow falls nonetheless.

sryanbruen

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Anyone remember the fall of snow in limerick in January 2015? That came in from the west as well.
It was on the 20th Jan 2015. There was disruption too but the snow was gone by that evening.

http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/community/198754/Heavy-snowfall-causes-traffic-chaos-in.html

To be honest, apart from Storm Rachel on 14 January in the northwest, I don't remember any snowfall from January 2015.

KingdomRushed

Major differences between the 12z ECM and GFS at 144 hrs. ECM looks primed to swing cold in from the east with much more amplification.

ECM looks good to continue the theme of easterly air next week

pedigree 6

sryanbruen wrote: »

To be honest, apart from Storm Rachel on 14 January in the northwest, I don't remember any snowfall from January 2015.

You don't live in Limerick.:pac:

Strong Life in Dublin

Guy's do you think the Dublin/Wicklow mountains could get much snow this week? I might take a trip up on Saturday

sryanbruen

pedigree 6 wrote: »

You don't live in Limerick.:pac:

Still, I didn't record any snow from Storm Rachel and I remember that bringing snow to places. I try to memorise whenever it snowed and wherever it snowed, I guess I failed.

nacho libre

It's amusing the way some well known posters on Netweather say the GFS is biased and its run should be binned, yet if it was the GFS showing an easterly it would be the go to model.

Rougies

Strong Life in Dublin wrote: »

Guy's do you think the Dublin/Wicklow mountains could get much snow this week? I might take a trip up on Saturday

Amounts will probably be low, but anything that falls between Wednesday and Saturday will stay on the ground above about 300 meters.

KingdomRushed

nacho libre wrote: »

It's amusing the way some well known posters on Netweather say the GFS is biased and its run should be binned, yet if it was the GFS showing an easterly it would be the go to model.

The ECM after 144 hours tonight is so sexy it can only go downhill from here.

Downgrades inevitable I fear, considering how messy the GFS looks and UKMO while not as bad seems to have more complex pressure profile in the Atlantic restricting the sort of clean development of Scandinavian heights evident on ECM at same time.

Having said that I guess the ECM has to be in with a shout.

Easterly Beasterly

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Major differences between the 12z ECM and GFS at 144 hrs. ECM looks primed to swing cold in from the east with much more amplification.

ECM looks good to continue the theme of easterly air next week

Yep.. Would it be right in saying this is cold but dry? is pressure too high or would this set-up create streamers off the Irish Sea due to the difference between upper air temps and sea temps?? I'm still learning!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

KingdomRushed

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Yep.. Would it be right in saying this is cold but dry? is pressure too high or would this set-up create streamers off the Irish Sea due to the difference between upper air temps and sea temps?? I'm still learning!!

ECM after 168 hours is streamer city.

nacho libre

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The ECM after 144 hours tonight is so sexy it can only go downhill from here.

Downgrades inevitable I fear, considering how messy the GFS looks and UKMO while not as bad seems to have more complex pressure profile in the Atlantic restricting the sort of clean development of Scandinavian heights evident on ECM at same time.

Having said that I guess the ECM has to be in with a shout.

I don't mean to sound overly negative but i do remember the ecm being consistent about easterlies developing in the past, only to turn out to be consistently wrong before back tracking. I really do hope that's not the case this time.

Lumi

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Anyone remember the fall of snow in limerick in January 2015? That came in from the west as well.
It was on the 20th Jan 2015. There was disruption too but the snow was gone by that evening.

http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/community/198754/Heavy-snowfall-causes-traffic-chaos-in.html

There are some reports in this thread http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057364090&page=31

Jpmarn wrote: »

No snow near Limerick City. Kilfinane and Ballylanders where roads are closed due to snow are over 20 miles away from where I live. This area is on high ground between the Galty and the Ballyhoura mountains.

ArKl0w

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Yep.. Would it be right in saying this is cold but dry? is pressure too high or would this set-up create streamers off the Irish Sea due to the difference between upper air temps and sea temps?? I'm still learning!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Dry,pressure way too high
You'd have flurries
But if day 10 verified you'd be staying home from work even if you were in a caravan outside that studio:D

ArKl0w

nacho libre wrote: »

I don't mean to sound overly negative but i do remember the ecm being consistent about easterlies developing in the past, only to turn out to be consistently wrong before back tracking. I really do hope that's not the case this time.

Yes 10 years ago this very week to be precise
So let's stay calm

ArKl0w

KingdomRushed wrote: »

ECM after 168 hours is streamer city.

No it isn't
Streamers will not develop in pressure of 1030 mb
Flurries just
The real gold is at 240

Gonzo

just watched the met eireann forecast on RTE1, not much going on with the upcoming cold spell, looks to be a 1 day event with wintry showers in the west and mostly dry in the east, she mentioned snow lying only on high ground. Friday onwards temps rise, any showers will be of rain from then.

All eyes on next week's easterly. fingers, toes and everything crossed that it will work out and deliver white gold!.

Billcarson

Get the cold in first as regards next week then worry about possible snow chances

jack o shea

Snow has been finished in this country for a long time. 15 degrees of muck all year round give or take a couple of degrees.

fred funk }{

Good man Jack.

fraxinus1

Not much to get excited about after watching the RTE weather forecast. In the NW, I'm expecting some hail and sleet showers with high ground getting some snow. Things are being hyped way up. Thursday and Friday are going to be cold and blustery days with squally showers of rain and hail and towards the evenings, sleet. But I'd be extremely surprises to see snow lying below 300 metres. I will be on the lookout all over the area.

sryanbruen

Who's being hyped up fraxinus anyway? I don't see anybody really "hyped" for this cold "snap".

nacho libre

The ECM is teasing a Greenland high and reload of cold at the very end of its run. Well as we've said the only way is down,which would not be the end of things, if a slightly tamer version of whats being depicted actually happened.

I am going to join this little fellow in prayer to the snow gods:

587532567dc10_C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_SavedImages_images.jpg.5c4178b4ef3ba0a57706fec00eed111c.jpg

587532567dc10_C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_SavedImages_images.jpg.5c4178b4ef3ba0a57706fec00eed111c.jpg

ArKl0w

Billcarson wrote: »

Get the cold in first as regards next week then worry about possible snow chances

True
But 1030 pressure you do NOT want
When was the last time you had heavy showers under the likes of that? The atmosphere would be CAPPED,no building clouds high enough for heavy showers
Light ones maybe

That said,the positives are,the easterly on ECM is about 4 or 5 days closer and the 240 IS streamertastic
So we've two things happening,the ECM is continuing the Easterly trend and brought it closer AND in the place where it's had it over a number of weeks on and off now,it's made it COLDER and Snowy when it wasn't before
Nothing is nailed on here*

*

it's looking good though in my humble opinion

Oneiric 3

Possible little 'polar low' heading this way for Thursday on the ECM tonight?

force eleven

More interested in the possible easterly for next week. There is a lot of cold air to draw from presently. Get a feed off that and then have an assessment for snow. However my caution tells me to hang on till the weekend. The computer models have had a nightmare past 120-144hrs this winter and this could all change. Personally would love to see what the Glosea5 model is showing but sadlynot for public viewing, it is the Queen of Models I believe. Lets see what this Northwesterly and rogue wave depression gives us first...

ArKl0w

The US weather service have basically dumped the latest GFS runs and are going with the ECM mainly and the UKMO

Make of that what you will

Kingswood Rover

jack o shea wrote: »

Snow has been finished in this country for a long time. 15 degrees of muck all year round give or take a couple of degrees.

must be living in a different Ireland, pretty dry for the vast majority for the last 4 months