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Winter Weather 2016/17 - General Discussion

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A new thread for a new Season. I hope the season brings everybody weather joy and happiness!

Good enough start to Winter here in Dublin 16. -0.7c atm.

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pad199207

Come Friday it looks like Britain will get all the fun and games

JCX BXC

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
Very cold wintry weather will develop from Wednesday night onwards.
Showers will turn wintry in many places, from Wednesday evening to Saturday, with falls of sleet and snow expected. The heaviest of the snow fall is most likely over Ulster, Connacht, north Leinster and west Munster and especially so on high ground.
Issued:Tuesday 10 January 2017 15:00
Valid:Wednesday 11 January 2017 18:03 to Saturday 14 January 2017 12:00

Rougies

pad199207 wrote: »

Come Friday it looks like Britain will get all the fun and games

Yeah looking good on the latest GFS for a large amount of Britain. They're playing a dangerous game with a warm sector though, it could easily go tits up. Nightmare situation for the forecasters.

Villain

GFS 12z looks to keep the Beast at bay next week but this far out you will always get big flips

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

GFS 12z looks to keep the Beast at bay next week but this far out you will always get big flips

Will be interesting what the ecm comes up with.

nacho libre

Well snow looks nailed on for Wednesday night into Thursday now. Further ahead , the GFS might flip back again or the ECM could suddenly switch to a solution similar to the GFS.
Was it 2012 when an easterly was being depicted in December by two of the big three models, only for the all the models to flip to a mild regime within 48 hours of the easterly being set to begin.

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Well snow looks nailed on for Wednesday night into Thursday now. Further ahead , the GFS might flip back again or the ECM could suddenly switch to a solution similar to the GFS.
Was it 2012 when an easterly was being depicted in December by two of the big three models, only for the all the models to flip to a mild regime within 48 hours of the easterly being set to begin.

Yeah remember that. NW had to get Counsellors in as moderators.

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yeah remember that. NW had to get Counsellors in as moderators.

Poor Stuart Rampling had a stress full time of it. Hopefully history won't repeat itself

Meantime. If you promise the white gold in Ireland they will come:

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sryanbruen

I remember an easterly at the very beginning of January 2010. From the 3rd-5th, I remember the winds turning into the north as a cold front pushed down. However, the front then lingered to the east of England bringing winds back to an easterly which stayed until January 14th though the 12th did have some extremely heavy rain in the south (59mm at Valentia Observatory) and tried to bring mild air back, it failed. January 15th then was the first day since like early December 2009 that temperatures of up to 12c were recorded. Westerlies prevailed for a while but on the 28th, a low pushed in from the northwest bringing northwesterlies for the rest of January. So yeah, it was MOSTLY an easterly January but there were some variations.

I love how the models are all showing an easterly now at some stage :rolleyes:.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Was it 2012 when an easterly was being depicted in December by two of the big three models, only for the all the models to flip to a mild regime within 48 hours of the easterly being set to begin.

If I remember correctly, yes and was 3 months early as we got the easterly in March instead

KingdomRushed

Villain wrote: »

GFS 12z looks to keep the Beast at bay next week but this far out you will always get big flips

Yes and it has the support of the ensembles in doing this, so it's not to be dismissed at all.

marno21

Looking good for the next few days here in North West Cork near Kerry/Limerick border (200m ASL)..

munsterlegend

marno21 wrote: »

Looking good for the next few days here in North West Cork near Kerry/Limerick border (200m ASL)..

Yeah with that elevation you should be in business.

downwiththatsor

marno21 wrote: »

Looking good for the next few days here in North West Cork near Kerry/Limerick border (200m ASL)..

End of hirlam looks tasty for Kerry

Easterly Beasterly

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Yes and it has the support of the ensembles in doing this, so it's not to be dismissed at all.

I've noticed the ensembles flip just as much as the op! At least it's keeping us in suspense!

JCX BXC

Looks great for West Clare too!

I look forward to reporting rain on Thursday

diceyd

nacho libre wrote: »

Poor Stuart Rampling had a stress full time of it. Hopefully history won't repeat itself

Meantime. If you promise the white gold in Ireland they will come:

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munsterlegend

downwiththatsor wrote: »

End of hirlam looks tasty for Kerry

Hopefully you'll share with your good neighbours. Think those showers will feed in pretty well.

munsterlegend

JCX BXC wrote: »

Looks great for West Clare too!

I look forward to reporting rain on Thursday

It prob will start off as rain. Just so you don't get too disheartened!

MJohnston

Are we due for some strong winds starting overnight too?

Easterly Beasterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

Hopefully you'll share with your good neighbours. Think those showers will feed in pretty well.

Novice question but does the precipitation charts above show convection from the sea, I notice that there is lots of it in the west of Ireland and the west of the UK, why none in the middle?

Yourself isit

What was the synoptic situation for 1982? An easterly driven by a stalled low pressure system of the south East?

ArKl0w

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Novice question but does the precipitation charts above show convection from the sea, I notice that there is lots of it in the west of Ireland and the west of the UK, why none in the middle?

Yeah sea convection but they're very unreliable
More of a generalisation

downwiththatsor

Latest Euro4 out now. Not much on the accumulated snow for same timescale but next update tonight should tell more.

ArKl0w

Yourself isit wrote: »

What was the synoptic situation for 1982? An easterly driven by a stalled low pressure system of the south East?

Scandinavia high with a lot of super cold surface air advection and a battle ground front that got stuck on the east coast for 2 whole days
It was the first time I saw thundersnow

munsterlegend

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Latest Euro4 out now.

Beautiful!!!

Oscar Bravo

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munsterlegend

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Latest Euro4 out now. Not much on the accumulated snow for same timescale but next update tonight should tell more.

Would prefer if was all happening tomorrow!

squarecircles

munsterlegend wrote: »

Beautiful!!!

I notice it seems to be rain along all exposed coastlines in the west.

Oscar Bravo

Joan blackburn on Radio just now. cold and wintry tomorrow night, ulster connaught and munster to expect accumulations of snow but little or no snow further east.