President 'The Donald' Trump and Surprising Consequences - Mod warning in OP
What will the Trump presidency be like? How different to Obama or how similar? And will he be able to reset America's relations?
First off 'The Donald' has inherited the same problems Obama had to deal with. It seems he is the 5th president in a row who has to deal with a major war and like many of his predecessors, this war will be fought in the same place: Iraq. Unlike earlier presidents but like Obama, Trump does not have a choice here: ISIS clearly need to be defeated and fast. Unlike Milosevic, Saddam or even the Taliban, they pose a clear and present danger to the entire world.
So, like Obama, Trump has to defeat ISIS. But unlike Obama, Trump wants close relations with Russia (which I agree with). Back in 2011 when the revival of ISIS (previously al Qaeda in Iraq) came about due to the Arab Spring, Obama backed up democracy in the Middle East. The Arab Spring became a nightmare and Libya and Syria have joined the ever growing list of world failed states. Obama and Russia both opposed ISIS but one chose other rebels and the other chose Assad. Now Trump has shown he wants partnership with Russia and has hinted he will work with Assad.
While I think America and Russia should improve relations, possibly not all of this will be good. America and Russia making friends also means of course that Iran becomes America's new friend. Trump may tear up Obama's deal to make a new deal and restore diplomatic relations. Again, this is a good thing in theory as long as America and Russia persuade Iran's government to abandon fascist laws on women and alcohol (laws that are contrary to Russian, American and Iranian business interests) and insist on the military and clergy to stay out of politics. A new federal republic of Iran with Hassan Rouhani and his elected successors as the true leaders would be good. Let Khamenei then stay on until his death but have him wind up that position akin to Franco's Spain. The other possibility though is America and Russia could tolerate a Revolutionary Guards client state where they become stronger and form business relations with Trump: that would make Iran (or a part of it) a second Saudi Arabia and we don't need that.
Also, there is the massive possibility that a Christian/Shia pact could form between Trump, Putin, Iran, Iraq and Syria along with support of Saudi Arabia as the main Sunni power and Israel as the main Jewish power. In the middle, other Sunnis could be persecuted or marginalised, leading to a new version of ISIS. And even if Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan normalise, chances are the next extremists could come from Sub Saharan Africa or from Siberian separatists. The current threat from the Middle East and militant 'Islam' will not always be the main threat and the world community will need to look out for other flashpoints where wars, famines, discrimination, etc. occur.
Of course, a lot of Trump's responsibilities will be healing his own divided country. Make America Great Again was his slogan. Everyone from moderate Republicans to Clinton haters to racist types voted for him and now Trump has to reign in the latter and represent ALL America and maintain good relations with his neighbours. Hostility with Mexico and Mexicans could stir up more trouble and drug cartels could justify support by waging war on America and a new wave of Narco-terrorism could explode onto the scene, this time from strictly non-Islamic sources. Trump has to think long and hard about what has to be done and should form a government of moderate competent people who can get what needs to be done properly.
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